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Nationwide: prices down 1.4% in October, down 14.6% since last year
Comments
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1.5% losses per month for the next 27 months is another third off prices. Of course that makes a lot of assumptions but is as good a back-of-envelope calculation as any.
You only need the back of a fag packet for that calculation, though......much enquiry having been made concerning a gentleman, who had quitted a company where Johnson was, and no information being obtained; at last Johnson observed, that 'he did not care to speak ill of any man behind his back, but he believed the gentleman was an attorney'.0 -
posh*spice wrote: »Um - Don't the Nationwide figures usually include more data analysis on different regions?
They do the regional stuff quarterly, so it last came out last month and will next do so at the end of Dec....much enquiry having been made concerning a gentleman, who had quitted a company where Johnson was, and no information being obtained; at last Johnson observed, that 'he did not care to speak ill of any man behind his back, but he believed the gentleman was an attorney'.0 -
Oh, and they have revised last months figure: it is not -1.5%, not -1.7%. Actually, if you compare September report with this one, you will see quite a few figures have changed - I assume it is their 'seasonal adjustment' to change numbers for months and years.
Example (first number is from September report, and the second one is from October report - sorry, don't know how to do nice table here)
Jan -0.6 -0.7
Feb -0.8 -0.8
Mar -1.1 -1.1
Apr -1.1 -1.2
May -2.5 -2.6
Jun -0.9 -1.0
Jul -1.6 -1.6
Aug -1.7 -1.8
Sep -1.7 -1.5
Their figures are based on mortgage approvals and I think if a sale doesn't got throught to completion - or if someone gazunders and needs less money they adjust the figures (obviously after the event, a lot can change between mortgage offer and completion) - if you check their figures - figures from previous months get adjusted quite a bit - HBOS is the same.
So theoretically the figures published this month could be different when next month's data is released0 -
baileysbattlebus wrote: »Their figures are based on mortgage approvals and I think if a sale doesn't got throught to completion - or if someone gazunders and needs less money they adjust the figures (obviously after the event, a lot can change between mortgage offer and completion) - if you check their figures - figures from previous months get adjusted quite a bit - HBOS is the same.
So theoretically the figures published this month could be different when next month's data is released
approx 15% of sales are cash purchases on property too - Halifax or Nationwide wouldn't collect these.0 -
Well done Cannon Fodder, as I can see its levelling off now.
Actually, it probably will level out instead of continuing to drop but all that means is that the rate of falling prices will have stabilised, not that prices have stopped falling.
As said elsewhere, this fall has happened largely without the aid of recession and unemployment. When we factor that in over the coming year I'd say that it's entirely likely we'll see up to another 15% (compared to peak) off in the next 12 months and probably some falls beyond that.
Oh yeah, and don't forget that we have had (if you believe the highly massaged official figures) about 5% inflation over the past year so that's a fall in the order of at least 20% in 'real' terms in just a year.
Can't see banks loaning cheaply at 95% LTV into that market like the government apparently wants but who knows, we might well get to the point where the government literally prints the cash up and gives it to the banks with the order to lend.--
Every pound less borrowed (to buy a house) is more than two pounds less to repay and more than three pounds less to earn, over the course of a typical mortgage.0 -
But presumably they don't include repossessions either? Or do they? As I assume Nationwide and Halifax must repossess houses too?0
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That said, I am really waiting to see prices fall 25% from peak... I wonder if it will happen? Many say it will, but it hasn't yet...
I'd say they'll drop by at least a third in nominal terms, from peak, within the next 18-24 months - probably a bit more as there will inevitably be an undershoot where they go below fair value.
The only thing that will save house prices now is strong inflation. Which incidentally would fix a lot of the banks balance sheet problems. And pump up the stock market. And rescue the government from all it's over the top borrowing. Hmmm :think:--
Every pound less borrowed (to buy a house) is more than two pounds less to repay and more than three pounds less to earn, over the course of a typical mortgage.0 -
Actually, it probably will level out instead of continuing to drop but all that means is that the rate of falling prices will have stabilised, not that prices have stopped falling.
Dead right, however I'm sure the media won't report it like this, which is a pity. Wait for the headlines next month on the 6 o clock news, don't hold your breath for the words -:
"even though the YoY has levelled at 15%, the fall from peak is actually continuing downwards and will continue through to at least 2010"
it will be
" There's some good news on the housing market today, prices have now levelled off " <cut to a big graphic showing the levelling off of the YoY falls.:rolleyes:
Its all so predictable0 -
Cannon_Fodder wrote: »
I thought this was gonna level off at 12% annual rate of decline (1% drop per month). I was wrong.
The recent monthly drops have been around 1.5% (I think) which would suggest that the annual drop could well reach 18%.
How long is this level of decline sustainable for?
PS. looking at the long term trends graph a few posts above, it appears that the rate of decline slows rapidly as soon as prices have dropped to the long term trend line. Prices continue to drop (under-shoot), but at a much slower rate...Hello.0 -
Is that for real?
Nationwide don't usually release these their monthly data at just past midnight.
"naughtiness" as my darling son would say. The nationwide website press release says "strictly embargoed until 7am"
http://www.nationwide.co.uk/hpi/historical/Oct_2008.pdf...much enquiry having been made concerning a gentleman, who had quitted a company where Johnson was, and no information being obtained; at last Johnson observed, that 'he did not care to speak ill of any man behind his back, but he believed the gentleman was an attorney'.0
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