Nationwide: prices down 1.4% in October, down 14.6% since last year

pizzagirl

If Fionnuala Earley gets any more egg on he face she'll have enough to make a omelette!

mr.broderick

poppy10 wrote: »

That's a £30k drop in the average house price, since last October, taking it back down to £158k.

Prices fell by an average of £2265 in October alone.

However the rate of fall has lessened, from 1.7% last month to 1.4% this month. Yay!!! :j

I said houses would fall 15% before the market picked up, looks like my predictions were accurate, lots of houses going sold subject to contract around here that have been on the market a while.

ad9898_3

mr.broderick wrote: »

I said houses would fall 15% before the market picked up, looks like my predictions were accurate, lots of houses going sold subject to contract around here that have been on the market a while.

Unfortunately as I know all too well (3 times earlier this year), SSTC means nothing.

MrDT

mr.broderick wrote: »

I said houses would fall 15% before the market picked up, looks like my predictions were accurate.

Sure does, we're practically at 15% falls already with no sign of a recovery.

I suggest the prices will also fall 16% before recovery. 17%. 18%. 19%...

Your prediction of 15% falls before any recovery has very nearly come true already. The real question is: what about the guys with 50% predictions?

mr.broderick

ad9898 wrote: »

Unfortunately as I know all too well (3 times earlier this year), SSTC means nothing.

Doesn't mean much in a rising market but still a little more than 'for sale'..

IveSeenTheLight

TDS wrote: »

I thought this was gonna level off at 12% annual rate of decline (1% drop per month). I was wrong.

The recent monthly drops have been around 1.5% (I think) which would suggest that the annual drop could well reach 18%.

How long is this level of decline sustainable for?

The last three months were -1.8%, -1.5% and -1.4%.
With the price at £158,872 a 1.5% drop would take the average to £156489
Up till now, the YoY graph has been comparing a -ve month with a +ve month, meaning that next month the YoY is comparing -ve with -ve.
The average house price was £184,099 in Nov 2007, therefore a 1.5% drop would be YoY 14.99%

So predicting forward, your going to see a rough levelling off at 15% YoY falls.
Of course circumstances can change this, which I'm sure we'll all discuss.

TDS wrote: »

PS. looking at the long term trends graph a few posts above, it appears that the rate of decline slows rapidly as soon as prices have dropped to the long term trend line. Prices continue to drop (under-shoot), but at a much slower rate...

As you point out, the graph shows an overshoot to the Long Term Trend and as others suggest, there needs to be a time both sides of the line in order for it to be a trend.

A trend of 2.9% yearly increase is reasonable I would presume, therefore I believe the trend line is a good indicator of where average house prices should be.
Naturally there will be areas where the prices is higher and others where it is lower.

You can see we are not far away from that line, in real terms, maybe by end of January if 1.5% monthly drops are maintained

Generali

MrDT wrote: »

Sure does, we're practically at 15% falls already with no sign of a recovery.

I suggest the prices will also fall 16% before recovery. 17%. 18%. 19%...

Your prediction of 15% falls before any recovery has very nearly come true already. The real question is: what about the guys with 50% predictions?

I've seen people predict falls of 70 or 80% from the average price.

Admittedly they are the same people that use phrases like 'fiat currency', 'Jewish conspiracy', and 'I'll take one of your finest tin hats, 12 boxes of shotgun cartridges and a gold bar please, Mr Jones'.

Perhaps we should start a new thread, Biggest Price Fall Predictions.

A 50% fall in nominal terms is possible I guess. I'd be surprised to see more than that on average although not on individual properties. In fact on some properties I'd be surprised to see falls of less than 99% without Government intervention.

poppy10_2

Generali wrote: »

Perhaps we should start a new thread, Biggest Price Fall Predictions.

Or smallest price fall predictions - here's the BBC, in December 2007, 4 months into the credit crunch:

House prices could be even more of a talking point than usual in 2008. For the first time since 1995, this could be a year in which property prices actually fall. However, that is not what most experts are predicting.
On the whole they think that prices will be flat, or may rise slightly over the next 12 months.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7150229.stm

poppy10_2

ad9898 wrote: »

Dead right, however I'm sure the media won't report it like this, which is a pity.
it will be

" There's some good news on the housing market today, prices have now levelled off " <cut to a big graphic showing the levelling off of the YoY falls.:rolleyes:

Its all so predictable

Here we go - here's our Fionualla on todays's figures:

Fionnuala Earley, Nationwide’s chief economist, said there was evidence the rate of decline in house prices was stabilising.

She said: “House prices have now fallen for 11 consecutive months but the monthly rate of fall has been almost unchanged in the last three months.

“This may suggest the beginning of some stabilisation in the pace of house price falls.”

:rolleyes::rolleyes::rolleyes:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/constructionandproperty/3126307/23000-what-average-house-lost-in-a-year.html

bryanb

Hope someone can answer for me. Are the BS price drop figures based on mortgage amounts or on actual selling prices?