Nationwide: prices down 1.4% in October, down 14.6% since last year

Generali

The press release shouldn't have been reported on until 7am.

The annual 3 month-on-3 month rolling average comparison and the actual year-on-year falls are identical this month. Sorry to disappoint conspiracy fans.

The rate of decline should start to flatten out now as we will be comparing down months with down months. It'll be interesting to see how this is reported.

The prose of the press release is pretty balanced too IMO.

posh*spice

dopester wrote: »

I was looking forward to my monthly fix of seeing Chief Economist Fionananaala on tv interviews explaining her shock and awe at stuff no one could have ever predicted earlier in the year, but suspect we might be denied that as well.

She was on Bloomberg this morning;)

posh*spice

Um - Don't the Nationwide figures usually include more data analysis on different regions?

ad9898_3

Generali wrote: »

The rate of decline should start to flatten out now as we will be comparing down months with down months. It'll be interesting to see how this is reported.

It will be reported in exactly the same way as mortgage approvals were reported yesterday, i.e no mention of the fact their were less working days in September than August and in reality approvals fell by 1000 on a day to day basis

poppy10_2

Generali wrote: »

The rate of decline should start to flatten out now as we will be comparing down months with down months.

Yeah, that's sad. I liked seeing that graph plunge month after month. No doubt we'll start to hear reports of the "rate of fall stablizing"

wolfman

The graph will still be heading down at quite a rate, although easing slightly. I think it may pick up a little though as we approach the winter months, and a recession becomes official.

A recession will mean further slow down, less spending, more people in financial trouble etc... If it maintains around 1.5% drops, for another year, I may consider buying.

Generali

posh*spice wrote: »

Um - Don't the Nationwide figures usually include more data analysis on different regions?

I think their regional analysis is quarterly.

poppy10_2

ginvzt

poppy10 wrote: »

Yeah, that's sad. I liked seeing that graph plunge month after month. No doubt we'll start to hear reports of the "rate of fall stablizing"

I think they are saying that already with "The typical house price fell by 1.4% in October, around the same rate as the average monthly fall of 1.3% over the last year".

Oh well, we sad people... My and OH were watching BBC news this morning and we were both so happy about the price drop. Well, we have sold our house and money are in the bank, and we are just waiting for that perfect house to pop up. Sometime after April next year

ginvzt

poppy10 wrote: »

That's a £30k drop in the average house price, since last October, taking it back down to £158k.

Prices fell by an average of £2265 in October alone.

However the rate of fall has lessened, from 1.7% last month to 1.4% this month. Yay!!! :j

Oh, and they have revised last months figure: it is not -1.5%, not -1.7%. Actually, if you compare September report with this one, you will see quite a few figures have changed - I assume it is their 'seasonal adjustment' to change numbers for months and years.

Example (first number is from September report, and the second one is from October report - sorry, don't know how to do nice table here)

Jan -0.6 -0.7
Feb -0.8 -0.8
Mar -1.1 -1.1
Apr -1.1 -1.2
May -2.5 -2.6
Jun -0.9 -1.0
Jul -1.6 -1.6
Aug -1.7 -1.8
Sep -1.7 -1.5