Nationwide: prices down 1.4% in October, down 14.6% since last year

IveSeenTheLight

!!!!!!? wrote: »

The point is that should the oil boom subside - as it shows signs of doing - places which have benefited from the stimulus on the way up are going to suffer badly from it being taken away.

What signs?
I'm seeing the opposite.
Did you not see BP and Shells released profits earlier this week? And this is only two operators.
As I said on my previous post, operation are becoming far more global, meaning that there is more workload than there are experienced personnel

Sometimes I think you come out with posts with nothing firm to back them up.

mitchaa

Oil related salaries do not go up and down with the price of a barrel of oil !!!!!!. It has no bearing on it in the slightest in fact. The industry is recession proof due to the very short supply of the expertise and the incredibly high demand, not just from the N.Sea but now global.

Worldwide oil companies are coming to Aberdeen for expertise in the industry and workers are now going farter afield than the N.Sea. Some of the salaries on offer for the more technical jobs is frightening at times.

Guy i know come back with £35k for 14days work in Baku.

That is footballer territory salary.

Of course not all jobs are as highly paid but the industry as a whole has a strong range of salaries on offer.

Even the stewards (general cleaners, bed makers etc) are earning £30k pa which is higher than the national av @ £25k

Aberdeen and the surrounding area is not immune, we will suffer like everyone else is doing with strict lending, deposits etc, and it is already showing signs of decline.

No-one is denying that

It is 1 of the safer areas of Britain though and will cope better than most.

chucky

!!!!!!? wrote: »

They were happy enough to accept their figures on the way up :rolleyes:

and they are as blind as the people that take too much notice of them now

Generali wrote: »

Well 7% is quite a lot and it would appear a statistically significant sample as the Nationwide index is about the same as the Halifax (and the LR one the lag is taken into account).

If they were to diverge then I guess you'd have to ask yourself why they did and what significance it has.

well 93% is much, much more than 7% of their own coverage and this is the amount that they're missing out on in their coverage and calculations.

it's funny that the media don't educate the nation when they put their headlines out for all to see.

IveSeenTheLight

Cannon_Fodder wrote: »

Will people never learn? Some people can't seem to remember...

Seeing as you can't remember.
Here is a link to house prices in the last 20 years (Okay does not go back to 1986)
It shows that Aberdeen dropped 9.08% (1993) in only 1 year and rose the following year

mitchaa

Cannon_Fodder wrote: »

Will people never learn? Some people can't seem to remember...


http://findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_qn4158/is_19990902/ai_n14247976

"In the period from 1985 to 1988, when the rest of the country enjoyed the so-called "Lawson boom", the oil industry was in the doldrums and house prices were falling in Aberdeen by 10 per cent a year. People were so desperate they just handed in their keys at the bank"

Sept 1999 - "the town has Scotland's highest burglary rate"


http://emagazine.credit-suisse.com/app/article/index.cfm?fuseaction=OpenArticle&aoid=159513&coid=7805&lang=EN

"Constant Ups and Downs
Oil has made Aberdeen rich – and periodically driven it into crisis. When the oil price slumped to nine dollars a barrel in 1986, with production costs at ten dollars, Aberdeen went down with it. Workers moved out of the city, property prices plunged, retailing stagnated. The oil price subsequently recovered, and so did Aberdeen. In 1998 the price collapsed again, leaving the city facing another meltdown – but this time the consequences were less severe. Many supply companies managed to find customers abroad."



and the future?;

http://www.pressandjournal.co.uk/Article.aspx/908651?UserKey=

"But he had a warning for the short term: “You have to expect house prices will cool but not collapse in the way they have elsewhere. There may be redundancies, but I would not expect them on a huge scale.” "



Cooling because of Oil price, on top of a recession and financial crisis, could well = a crash.

Recession-proof? We will have to wait and see...

That is very true but you have to realise that this time around the Aberdeen oil industry has expanded 10 fold.

The older generation are coming to retirement, the website oilcareers.com has thousands of available jobs with some ridiculous salaries on offer and the N.Sea expertise has expanded globally. A lot of Aberdeen based personnel are no longer working in the N.Sea, but in places like Nigeria, Baku etc

Let's just see what happens;) They will not get rid of the expertise though especially when the industry is so under manned.

WTF?_2

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

What signs?
I'm seeing the opposite.
Did you not see BP and Shells released profits earlier this week? And this is only two operators.
As I said on my previous post, operation are becoming far more global, meaning that there is more workload than there are experienced personnel

Sometimes I think you come out with posts with nothing firm to back them up.

Sometimes I think that you can't see any further than the end of your own nose ... Those profits are from a period of time where oil came close to $150 a barrel.

Should deflation and a bad recession take hold, the oil price is going to be hard hit and making those sorts of profits is going to be out of the question.

IveSeenTheLight

!!!!!!? wrote: »

Sometimes I think that you can't see any further than the end of your own nose ... Those profits are from a period of time where oil came close to $150 a barrel.

Should deflation and a bad recession take hold, the oil price is going to be hard hit and making those sorts of profits is going to be out of the question.

Still no facts I see, even though I showed you YoY from August 07 to August 08 Scotland dropped 1.29%. Incidently Aberdeen was 2.3% drop in the same time period

I've said before, let me re-iterate it. Aberdeen is not house price drop proof.
I do however believe and have factually shown why it will be less affected than other parts of the UK.

Can you disproove that?

Cannon_Fodder

"Did you not see BP and Shells released profits earlier this week?"

EXACTLY - huge profits for 3 months, BECAUSE of the Oil Price.

Halve that price, the profits will shrink NEXT quarter/year, and bang goes their profit/investment/expansion.



"that this time around the Aberdeen oil industry has expanded 10 fold"

so 10x bigger, to hurt 10x more people IF it does have a slump...?

IveSeenTheLight

Cannon_Fodder wrote: »

"Did you not see BP and Shells released profits earlier this week?"

EXACTLY - huge profits for 3 months, BECAUSE of the Oil Price.

Halve that price, the profits will shrink NEXT quarter/year, and bang goes their profit/investment/expansion.



"that this time around the Aberdeen oil industry has expanded 10 fold"

so 10x bigger, to hurt 10x more people IF it does have a slump...?

Do you not read the posts? We've said there is not the experienced personnel in place to cope with the demand.

The demand is global now. I know of orders into 2012 in South East Asia.
Do you know of an industry that has orders for 3 1/2 years later in this economic climate?

Cannon_Fodder

ISIL - I don't think anyone is disputing that Scotland's -ve HPI started later than England...so, yes August was maybe 'negligable'.

Halifax http://www.hbosplc.com/economy/includes/17_10_08Scotland.doc
shows "Annually, house prices in Scotland fell 6.0% in Q3 2008"

HBOS should have a decent Scottish base, surely?

But we don't know how much momentum it has still to gather, or how long after England finishes being -ve, will Scotland continue...