50% drops by 2011

beingjdc

Aberdeen's been weird I think - the boom and bust cycle in oil has a bigger impact there than almost anywhere else in Europe, so it's slightly detached from what is reality for everywhere else. Likely to be a hard landing now though.

Yoshua

Agreed this is a good example of believing what you want to happen even if its obviously delusional its typical denial to whats really happening to think your house has actually gone up 35K in the last year or so.:eek: Maybe you just said that to try and make it not so bad in your mind.

mitchaa sorry but this makes anything else you say untrustworthy.

If you really believe that then why are you posting on a thread that says 50% drops?

I started this thread by asking the question if posters agree with this - That prices will be down 50% by 2011?

To try and claim your house has gone up in value by 35K since June 07 is laughable.

If you want to argue that you don't think house prices will be down by 50% by 2011 then please make your point. As far as I can see know one has been able to put a good argument forth to repudiate the claim that house prices will be down to half what they are now by 2011.

dopester

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

Incidently, in Q3 2007 there was a 35% rise

So in short, since Q3 2006, prices rose 35% and then lowered by 6.9% resulting in the average property price according to Nationwide being 25% higher in Q3 2008 than they were in Q3 2006.

Have you any idea what caused such dramatic HPI in Q3 2006 for Aberdeen?

Two recent-ish (September) articles for you ISTL... which you might like [and obviously I think they are whacko.]

The Times: House price performance 2008 - Aberdeen
The Sunday Times guide to how house prices have changed in the last year and where they are expected to be a year from now

New 1-bed apartment
September 2007: £140,000
September 2008: £145,000
September 2009: £150,000
Second-hand 1-bed apartment
September 2007: £115,000
September 2008: £125,000
September 2009: £130,000
New 2-bed apartment (city centre)
September 2007: £185,000
September 2008: £200,000
September 2009: £200,000

:rotfl:


The Times: Scottish homes market view 2008: Aberdeen

Some estimates suggest house prices soared by as much as 36% in the Granite City last year, but like Tony Dawson of James & George Collie, we are taking a more sober view.

“There is no doubt Aberdeen always runs to its own rhythm as a result of its oil industry,” he concedes.

“It is also true that there are obvious signs of confidence in the redevelopment of the city centre, in the shops, bars and restaurants. But having read some of the hype, I only wish it were true.

“There is no doubt, though, that our market is still moving forward — indeed, the only thing slowing the market is the availability of mortgage finance.”

Ahh - just that little unimportant variable eh.

dopester

Yoshua wrote: »

To try and claim your house has gone up in value by 35K since June 07 is laughable.

They do have half-a-point. Their area... Aberdeen, did see some ferocious HPI late on... but it is a micro-climate. I think it is also subject to vicious reversals.

RDB

!!!!!!? wrote: »

Time to go out and buy the most expensive property I can get, interest only mortgage. Then get fired.

Then spend all my savings on kitting it out like a celebrity 'crib', leaving enough to get through 13 weeks to supplement my JSA (no more in case the savings jeopardise the benefits).

After that, sit on the dole and let the taxpayer take the strain. Sounds great.

What with all the public cash committed to saving a shaky banking system plus the huge existing PSBR, mass unemployment looming and a huge reduction in tax revenue ... what can possibly go wrong for Britain? Here's to a bright future, thanks to Gordon the superhero :rolleyes2

You do not need to do that at all, your mortgage wont get paid much if at all by the Government!

Whether you are a repayment mortgage or interest only, you still pay interest every month and you will only get help with the Interest. They will not pay it all either.

It is calculated on who lives there and the average help with housing benefits.

So....if you are currently paying £1500 a month in interest.....they would only pay about a third of that.

They also do not pay anything for 30 odd weeks I dont know who said it has been reduced but thats BS**T its 30 odd weeks which is a long time to try not to be repossessed .....or, 24 (i think) if you have special circumstances.


So the point is when recession really hits hard its no good all these ones thinking its ok when I lose my job the government will pay off my mortgage.

I think repossessions in this country will soon be in the Guinness book of records.

mitchaa

novazombie wrote: »

I am very interested to know what everyone else thinks about your claim that you could sell you house now for 35K more than you bought it for in June 07. Obviously we all haven't seen your house but the way things are looking for the property market know one really needs to.

I admit if its something very special that super rich would like to own and you bought it way way below market value, then yes even now in these times you may find someone who has enough equity elsewhere to actually get a mortgage approved. But then again why would said person want to when all the smart people know we have a long way to fall yet.


I'm sorry but your a living in a dream world and you can go on thinking you may find someone who is like you (not understanding whats happening around you) to buy your house but the facts are houses just are not selling right now, even at hugely reduced prices we have the lowest figures of sales going through since colour TV was invented.

So anyway yes I disagree with your statement that you claim is fact not fiction, I'm sure other will give their opinion..............

I hate doing this as i find the stats quite meaningless due to the fact bought and sold property figures have plummeted.

i.e 10k sales in all areas of Aberdeenshire back in 2007
1k sales in some areas in 2008.

How the 2 can be of the same comparison is beyond me, sales are down by 9k properties so how can the figures be of any relevance? Perhaps the 1000 sales were of a desperate nature, ie an inheritance home, moving abroad, repossession but anyway....Every penny is a prisoner north of the border, no-one sells for a loss up here, they would just stay put where they are. Ever heard the 1 about the Scotsman dropping a pound coin??

Anyway ignoring why i dont find any relevance in these stats as to how much a particular house may be worth.....

http://www.nationwide.co.uk/hpi/historical/Q1_2008.pdf
http://www.nationwide.co.uk/hpi/historical/Q2_2008.pdf
http://www.nationwide.co.uk/hpi/historical/Q3_2008.pdf

Look at the figures for Aberdeenshire (Page 7)

Up until April 2008, Aberdeenshire was showing +23%/18% from Q1 of 2007
Up until July 2008, Aberdeenshire was showing +18%/7% from Q2 of 2007
Up until Oct 2008, Aberdeenshire was showing +7%/-2% from Q3 of 2007

I bought in June 2007 on paper, however the deal was agreed in the March of 2007 of which the valuation was carried out. I moved in Mid June after exchange of the missives and sorting out the mortgage.

Now considering these figures are averaged from the area, i.e some higher, some lower, its justifiable to add +5% -5% to these figures

Now if my house was agreed for lets say £225k in March 2007, according to these figures what would it have been worth 31st March 2008? (6mths ago)

Lets just say 20% to make the maths easier and the fact i live in a very nice part of Aberdeenshire;) That's right, it would have jumped upto around £270k making me a £45k profit within the space of 1 year.

Now is this reasonable based on these stats or am i living on cloud cukoo? Why if its not reasonable??

Now when i had my property valued in May/June 2008, we were planning on downsizing and moving into a 3bed, it was valued at you guessed it the +20% figure. That is FACT, not fiction.

This was only 4-5months ago.

Now people are trying to suggest i have lost all that £45k and more in the last 4-5months So about £10k per month in 1 of the richest and most affordable parts of the UK:rotfl:

Granted it may have dropped a little from then, but from recent houses up for sale in the area, them selling and me comparing, i am pretty confident, i am still up £35k from June 2007 (March 2007 valuation)

If someone would like to answer the big question above that i have highlighted in bold and then construct a civilized adult response, im all ears.

Am i still up, or should i be down according to Nationwides figures?

And why am i paying particular attention to 1 individual set of 'meaningless' figures anyway?

I await the usual 50% schoolchild responses from the people who cannot construct an argument followed by the 50% who try to construct an argument that indeed black is white and vice versa.

Yes i am confident i am still up on March 2007 figures:p Show me evidence that suggests i am not please....Go on:p

Mitchaa vs the MSE scaremongerers:rotfl:

howler_2

mr.broderick wrote: »

Yeah that makes sense. "yipee I haven't got a mortgage....Unfortunately i do live on the streets though"

Yes that's right. Anyone who hasn't got a mortgage lives on the streets. Brilliantly deduced Mr B

novazombie

mitchaa wrote: »

I hate doing this as i find the stats quite meaningless due to the fact bought and sold property figures have plummeted.

i.e 10k sales in all areas of Aberdeenshire back in 2007
1k sales in some areas in 2008.

How the 2 can be of the same comparison is beyond me, sales are down by 9k properties so how can the figures be of any relevance? Perhaps the 1000 sales were of a desperate nature, ie an inheritance home, moving abroad, repossession but anyway....Every penny is a prisoner north of the border, no-one sells for a loss up here, they would just stay put where they are. Ever heard the 1 about the Scotsman dropping a pound coin??

Anyway ignoring why i dont find any relevance in these stats as to how much a particular house may be worth.....

http://www.nationwide.co.uk/hpi/historical/Q1_2008.pdf
http://www.nationwide.co.uk/hpi/historical/Q2_2008.pdf
http://www.nationwide.co.uk/hpi/historical/Q3_2008.pdf

Look at the figures for Aberdeenshire (Page 7)

Up until April 2008, Aberdeenshire was showing +23%/18% from Q1 of 2007
Up until July 2008, Aberdeenshire was showing +18%/7% from Q2 of 2007
Up until Oct 2008, Aberdeenshire was showing +7%/-2% from Q3 of 2007

I bought in June 2007 on paper, however the deal was agreed in the March of 2007 of which the valuation was carried out. I moved in Mid June after exchange of the missives and sorting out the mortgage.

Now considering these figures are averaged from the area, i.e some higher, some lower, its justifiable to add +5% -5% to these figures

Now if my house was agreed for lets say £225k in March 2007, according to these figures what would it have been worth 31st March 2008? (6mths ago)

Lets just say 20% to make the maths easier and the fact i live in a very nice part of Aberdeenshire;) That's right, it would have jumped upto around £270k making me a £45k profit within the space of 1 year.

Now is this reasonable based on these stats or am i living on cloud cukoo? Why if its not reasonable??

Now when i had my property valued in May/June 2008, we were planning on downsizing and moving into a 3bed, it was valued at you guessed it the +20% figure. That is FACT, not fiction.

This was only 4-5months ago.

Now people are trying to suggest i have lost all that £45k and more in the last 4-5months So about £10k per month in 1 of the richest and most affordable parts of the UK:rotfl:

Granted it may have dropped a little from then, but from recent houses up for sale in the area, them selling and me comparing, i am pretty confident, i am still up £35k from June 2007 (March 2007 valuation)

If someone would like to answer the big question above that i have highlighted in bold and then construct a civilized adult response, im all ears.

Am i still up, or should i be down according to Nationwides figures?

And why am i paying particular attention to 1 individual set of 'meaningless' figures anyway?

I await the usual 50% schoolchild responses from the people who cannot construct an argument followed by the 50% who try to construct an argument that indeed black is white and vice versa.

Yes i am confident i am still up on March 2007 figures:p Show me evidence that suggests i am not please....Go on:p

Mitchaa vs the MSE scaremongerers:rotfl:

Mitchaa the point everyone was making is quite simple and doesn't need such a lengthy post - No matter what the nationwide figures show COULD YOU REALLY FIND A BUYER WHO WOULD PAY THAT? If so do they not know that if they wait the prices are going to fall a long way.
It really doesn't matter what any Estate Agent or someone like Nationwide says a place is worth or was worth, do you think someone who could physically raise that much money will pay it at the moment.

mitchaa

Shall i keep going...

http://www.nationwide.co.uk/hpi/historical/Q1_2007.pdf
http://www.nationwide.co.uk/hpi/historical/Q2_2007.pdf
http://www.nationwide.co.uk/hpi/historical/Q3_2007.pdf
http://www.nationwide.co.uk/hpi/historical/Q4_2007.pdf

http://www.nationwide.co.uk/hpi/historical/Q1_2008.pdf
http://www.nationwide.co.uk/hpi/historical/Q2_2008.pdf
http://www.nationwide.co.uk/hpi/historical/Q3_2008.pdf

Q1 2007... £139,063
Q2 2007... £153,353
Q3 2007... £164,430
Q4 2007... £166,476

Q1 2008... £164,535
Q2 2008... £165,600
Q3 2008... £162,120

Now these are the prices of average homes, obviously bigger increase the further up the ladder you go.

The fact is (IN BLACK AND WHITE ABOVE)

If you bought an average Aberdeenshire property in Q1 2007 @ £139,063, it will be worth £162,120 in October 2008

(That is 18 days ago for the impaired;) )

So, based on an average Aberdeen property, there has been an increase in value of around £23k in that time period.

Now, is it really that silly of me to state i have made £35k on my property seeing as i am further up the ladder:p

POINT PROVEN

Mitchaa beats the MSE scaremongerers with FACT, not fiction:rotfl:

You will of course get the imbeciles who will argue black is white and dig themselves a deeper hole;)

Apologies anyone??;)

GDB2222

RDB wrote: »

They also do not pay anything for 30 odd weeks I dont know who said it has been reduced but thats BS**T its 30 odd weeks which is a long time to try not to be repossessed .....or, 24 (i think) if you have special circumstances.

I dont know who said it has been reduced

Umm, that would be me. The only reason I said it is because it's been widely reported. I bow to your expert knowledge, but you might just like to check out this link:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/programmes/moneybox/7601147.stm

Or this link:
http://www.privatehealth.co.uk/news/september-2008/income-protection-cover-3129/

Or most of the links in this search:
http://www.google.co.uk/search?q=mortgage+interest+13+weeks

Oh, and you may find this link the most useful of all:
http://www.eldis.org/go/topics/dossiers/using-the-internet/how-to-use-google

Goes off muttering in a huff .......