50% drops by 2011

mitchaa

!!!!!!? wrote: »

If you are going to downsize, then do it now before prices drop lower.

Unless of course you really do believe that your area is immune to falls and you want to wait a while to maximise what you bank from the difference....

That decision takes a brave man, what do you do? I have been thinking this the last couple of months but not yet been brave enough to do it.

I am seeing little drops, but should i stay put or sell, bank any profit and rent and then buy again at 1st signs of increase. Costs of selling and renting in that time period is what i need to take into account. Rental in Aberdeen is expensive, easy £1100pm for a 3bed semi detached in the city,so if i think 1year that is £13,200 in rental, probably £5-6k in selling and moving fees, and any other fees, probably cost me £20k for the year. Will my house drop by more than this? Im not sure??

I never once said Aberdeen or Aberdeenshire was immune, but that massive increase in the 1st year that i seen will take a while to come down to 0.

I am pretty confident that it wont drop to below Pre Q1 2007 levels in this area but it may drop down to Q1/Q2 2007.

My posts were just to show that not everyone is suffering.

RDB

So mitchaa are you saying that just your area is going up while the rest of the country is going down? Do you really think that you can sell right now for the prices you mentioned?

Can I ask what is your thoughts on the future? I take it you dont agree with the 50% falls by 2011, do you actually claim prices wont have fallen by then?

mitchaa

No, no no

Prices in Aberdeen or Aberdeenshire are not rising, but in comparison to Q1 2007 levels they have done so by a good amount (i.e my signature below). In comparison to Q3 2007 levels they have remained roughly the same now in comparison to Q3 2008.

I dont believe if i sold right now i would make the original £45k profit no (Survey). I would expect to sell though for +£30-35k , but i do reckon after fees around £30k profit yes. Houses are not on the market long here, numerous have sold within the last 3 months in the streets around me. The thing with the Scottish market is its primarily offers over. The longer i keep holding on, i suspect that £30k im sure about now will drop and drop and drop, maybe £2k pm i dont know, but again im pretty sure that it wont drop down into negative equity territory either.

Prices nationwide are falling yes, i do not dispute the average -12.5% or whatever it is at the moment.

My guess as thats all it is, is NATIONAL prices (£165kish ATM??) will drop to around £145-150k before stagnating 6months and then rising again.

My guess is as good as yours and should not be dismissed because you dont agree with it. Its all guesswork, every single person here.

Aberdeen perhaps a 10-15% fall from peak values
Rest of Scotland, certain parts of England 20-25%
England/Wales/N.Ireland 25-35%

My predictions off peak values anyway.

Cannon_Fodder

Yes its guesswork, but you can employ some grey matter to make an educated rather than hopeful guess.

You keep on about the special-ness of Aberdeen - fine, it has some good economic advantages.

Explain, this then.

"Why has Aberdeen City been hit by -7% in one quarter?" BEFORE the oil price had dropped...mind.

That is already one-half of the hopeful 10-15% you predict to hit Aberdeen, gone in one quarter.

You think the credit crunch and recession will be all over in two quarters?

Its good to be positive, but as a lot of people in England & Wales found out a year go, clinging on for too long could catch you out.

Scotland may be a bit behind the rest of us, but that just means Eng & Wales will be on the way up, when you are entering Neg Eq.

mitchaa

Cannon_Fodder wrote: »

Yes its guesswork, but you can employ some grey matter to make an educated rather than hopeful guess.

You keep on about the special-ness of Aberdeen - fine, it has some good economic advantages.

Explain, this then.

"Why has Aberdeen City been hit by -7% in one quarter?" BEFORE the oil price had dropped...mind.

That is already one-half of the hopeful 10-15% you predict to hit Aberdeen, gone in one quarter.

Without looking at Aberdeens data, is this 7% down on peak or 7% down on this time last year? I dont have the time at the moment to carry out a similar comparison of what i did do for Aberdeenshire noting the 4 quarters of 2007 and 3 of 2008 and then comparing.

edited...

Q1 2007 = £197,958
Q2 2007 = £218,152
Q3 2007 = £236,220
Q4 2007 = £234,041

Q1 2008 = £226,021
Q2 2008 = £225,124
Q3 2008 = £219,879

So Prices in Aberdeen City today are the same if not a little higher than they were back in July 2007. Its fell back roughly 15 months according to Nationwide.

I suspect the downturn is through a lack of sales and also due to the economy troubles that everywhere else is having. I did not say Aberdeen was immune.

My point still stands though if you bought Q1 2007 in either Aberdeen/Aberdeenshire you will still be up today in Q3 2008.

Aberdeenshire being far safer than actual Aberdeen city (Thank god haha) Probably all those pesky newbuild £250k ''luxury'' apartments not shifting.

Again, my point in my signature below is very real.

chrisandanne

mitchaa wrote: »

Likewise, no-one has lost anything until they sell their home so there is no point in discussing houses have dropped by x amount when you plan to ride the storm and stay put.


Mitchaa, I am sorry for calling you a 'silly boy'.....what gets to me is not people making money when they sell their home....(I have sold houses a few times and each time the equity had increased, how much I would actually have 'made' after mortgage interest and refurb costs I don't know, because I have bought and sold to suit my needs, not calculating 'made' or 'lost' amounts.) It's people assuming they have 'made' money on the strength of an EA's valuation especially when they have to buy again in the same market.

What REALLY gets to me is these people trying to convince everyone else they have made money, as it states clearly in the quote from you above, you have not made or lost anything if the house is not for sale. The house price drops being discussed are for houses which are actually FOR SALE or have been SOLD and they have on the whole dropped drastically and as you state are now dropping in Aberdeenshire. Whether they will wipe out your gains of 2007 is not yet known.

I feel sorry actually, for people who may be looking at their deposit being wiped out as it takes a lot of getting together and is an achievment to have saved one....people who borrowed 100% + and have huge interest only mortgages.....they should have had more sense but still not nice to have your dreams wiped out.

Good luck to you Mitchaa...it matters to me not at all what your house is worth...if it makes you feel better thinking you have loads of equity think it...........but why feel the need to tell everybody about it....after the last seven years of hearing 'it's worth x more than I paid for it' I for one am glad the majority have now shut up. A x

mitchaa

Mitchaa, I am sorry for calling you a 'silly boy'.....what gets to me is not people making money when they sell their home....(I have sold houses a few times and each time the equity had increased, how much I would actually have 'made' after mortgage interest and refurb costs I don't know, because I have bought and sold to suit my needs, not calculating 'made' or 'lost' amounts.) It's people assuming they have 'made' money on the strength of an EA's valuation especially when they have to buy again in the same market.

What REALLY gets to me is these people trying to convince everyone else they have made money, as it states clearly in the quote from you above, you have not made or lost anything if the house is not for sale. The house price drops being discussed are for houses which are actually FOR SALE or have been SOLD and they have on the whole dropped drastically and as you state are now dropping in Aberdeenshire. Whether they will wipe out your gains of 2007 is not yet known.

I feel sorry actually, for people who may be looking at their deposit being wiped out as it takes a lot of getting together and is an achievment to have saved one....people who borrowed 100% + and have huge interest only mortgages.....they should have had more sense but still not nice to have your dreams wiped out.

Good luck to you Mitchaa...it matters to me not at all what your house is worth...if it makes you feel better thinking you have loads of equity think it...........but why feel the need to tell everybody about it....after the last seven years of hearing 'it's worth x more than I paid for it' I for one am glad the majority have now shut up. A x

See that post wasn't that hard;) Much more civilized and adult response:T

Yes it is only money on paper and really does not come into of any importance until the house is sold on.

I get fed up of reading all the doom and gloom threads, i just thought i would state that its not all entirely doom and gloom.

For me, if i want to move into Aberdeen city, i want them to drop as it works better for me. Infact Aberdeen city falling harder than Aberdeenshire works in my favour as the gap will not be as much.

I do not think i have lots of equity in it, but hopefully i have enough in it to stop me from going into negative equity. Wont happen as i had a deposit and make extra payments but you get my drift.

Cannon_Fodder

Ok. Look forward to updates to your signature..

mr.broderick

howler wrote: »

Yes that's right. Anyone who hasn't got a mortgage lives on the streets. Brilliantly deduced Mr B

Are you being serious? I was using that sentence to show you how flawed yours was? Forget it, I hate it when i have to explain myself.

RDB

mitchaa wrote: »

My guess is NATIONAL prices (£165kish ATM??) will drop to around £145-150k before stagnating 6months and then rising again.

quote]


Ha ha ha you do make me laugh. Someone else said on here your opinion is laughable, so after 6 months stagnating you think prices are going to go back up?

I`m sorry my friend but you are once again so wrong.

Just look at the last cycle and the one before that. Everyone knows this time its different, prices have risen way more before the crash than they did last few times. Also the credit crisis wasn't such a big factor back then, this time banks are going under every month, and the ones that don't will be very difficult to borrow mortgages from...... etc etc, oh I don't have to explain again its all been said before.


You are right its just an opinion, and your entitled to it. But I am entitled to say that in 6 months I would like to quote what you said and I'm sorry but prices will not have gone up:eek:

I agree with the OP 50% falls by 2011. London, Aberdeen everywhere.