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Debate House Prices


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50% drops by 2011

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Comments

  • novazombie
    novazombie Posts: 327 Forumite
    Cannon_Fodder wrote: »
    Ok. Look forward to updates to your signature..

    Mitcha`s future signature

    Aberdeenshire Average Property Price
    (Source Nationwide)
    Q1 2009...up to 20% down
    Q4 2009... another huge % DROP
    Q4 2010... Oh no I cant sell my house.
    Q2 2011... I`ve spent so much on my house its not fair its worth only 50% now
    Yes i have lost a lot of money in this HPC :mad:
  • dopester
    dopester Posts: 4,890 Forumite
    IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

    :rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl:
    Sorry, stop sniggering ISTL

    According to HBOS Aberdeen average was £72,447
    **NOTE** back then there was only one figure for Aberdeen and Aberdeenshire and this compares to the Aberdeenshire figure now.

    Please quote me when it drops to that figure again

    :rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl:
    Sorry, I may even have to nominate you for Post of the month.
    Certainly wins Friday joke of the day

    Thread bookmarked to comply with future notification of £72,447 reached (or thereabouts).

    I enjoy your posts Mitchaa and ISTL, and the follow-on counter responses and discussion. We shall see who proves right.

    depressionyc2.jpg
  • IveSeenTheLight
    IveSeenTheLight Posts: 13,322 Forumite
    dopester wrote: »
    They do have half-a-point. Their area... Aberdeen, did see some ferocious HPI late on... but it is a micro-climate. I think it is also subject to vicious reversals.

    Glad you now can see that different areas are affected differently.
    I've never said Aberdeen can't go down, hell, I even pointed out historically times that it has.

    You think that it is subject to vicious reversals, but you forget that it is still relatively cheap to buy up in Scotland and even with an increase in HPI in the last few years, is still one of the most affordable places to buy.

    The economy of Aberdeen are reported to have an average wage of a fifth higher than the rest of the UK, yet the house prices have only recently went above the average UK house price

    Aberdeen may go down in price, but nowhere like the amount you believe.
    :wall:
    What we've got here is....... failure to communicate.
    Some men you just can't reach.
    :wall:
  • hethmar
    hethmar Posts: 10,678 Forumite
    Part of the Furniture 10,000 Posts Combo Breaker Car Insurance Carver!
    The papers/pundits are all saying East Anglia has had one of the biggest drops in the country BUT honestly people, nothing in this area is showing a reduction at the moment. Im not sure where the figures come from - but in this part of Norfolk, nothing is being reduced as yet.
  • GDB2222
    GDB2222 Posts: 26,832 Forumite
    Part of the Furniture 10,000 Posts Photogenic Name Dropper
    hethmar wrote: »
    The papers/pundits are all saying East Anglia has had one of the biggest drops in the country BUT honestly people, nothing in this area is showing a reduction at the moment. Im not sure where the figures come from - but in this part of Norfolk, nothing is being reduced as yet.

    Which part?
    No reliance should be placed on the above! Absolutely none, do you hear?
  • hethmar
    hethmar Posts: 10,678 Forumite
    Part of the Furniture 10,000 Posts Combo Breaker Car Insurance Carver!
    South Norfolk

    Just had a scout for graphs September 2008- showing over 8% increase over August for 1 beds! 1.2% increase for 4 beds and down only 1.8% for 2 beds and 1.3% 3 beds.

    Im assuming reality will hit at some point, but meanwhile a 3 bed victorian terrace with on road parking just up the road from me has just gone on for £210k.
  • IveSeenTheLight
    IveSeenTheLight Posts: 13,322 Forumite
    dopester wrote: »
    Have you any idea what caused such dramatic HPI in Q3 2006 for Aberdeen?

    The Times: Scottish homes market view 2008: Aberdeen

    You wonder what caused such dramatic HPI in Q3 2006 for Aberdeen?.

    It wasn't restricted to one quarter in 2006, but you have kindly answered one of the reasons in your link
    Two years ago we reported a 24% increase in house prices in the city and a seeming change in local tastes with a rise in demand for the city’s traditional granite flats, a sector that had underperformed for the previous 10-15 years

    Affordability is the key and maybe as a result of the market underperforming previously, this led to the oppertunity for house price rises.

    Again from the link you gave
    In August, one London newspaper christened Aberdeen “Britain’s new capital of bling”, suggesting that the city was awash with disposable cash and enjoyed a burgeoning property market on the back of a 35% rise in consumers’ gas bills. The same article claimed that in “the Bentley capital of the UK”, the unemployment rate is well below the Scottish average at just 0.8%; gross weekly earnings are, on average, £606 — a fifth higher than the rest of the UK. Recruitment centres, the article said, have more jobs than applicants and the AB15 postcode boasts more millionaires per capita than any other UK postal district outside London.

    Again going back to affordability with the average earnings a fifth higher than the rest of the UK, you would expect house prices to be a similar 20% higher than the UK average, but then they are not.
    Only recently the average house prices in Aberdeen went above the UK average, againhighlighting that previously the housing market was under valued.

    Looking at HBOS Affordability spreadsheet, you will see that at Q2 2008 the house price - earning multiplier was 4.38. The lowest in the UK, menaing that the house prices are more affordable than elsewhere.
    If its more affordable now, then it has less to drop than other UK areas with higher levels of house price to earnings ratio.

    I read recently that the average mortgage multiplier offered by banks was to drop from 4.25 to 4.1. When the HBOS Q3 2008 figures are released, I would think they wont be far away from the 4.1 figure.

    P.S. I used to use James and George Collie, they had been our family solicitor for many many years. In particular a Mr Alex Buchan in the firm was very astute and provided a very good service.
    Sadly, we no longer use J&G Collie after one of the partners of the gentleman you quoted (Anthony J Dawson), a Mr P G Dawson proved to be quite incompetant, failing to respond to e-mail, letter and telephone messages on numerous occasions.
    :wall:
    What we've got here is....... failure to communicate.
    Some men you just can't reach.
    :wall:
  • IveSeenTheLight
    IveSeenTheLight Posts: 13,322 Forumite
    dopester wrote: »
    Thread bookmarked to comply with future notification of £72,447 reached (or thereabouts).

    I would say I'm looking forward to it, but then again, I think you will be waiting an awful long time.
    I tell you what, I'll bookmark as well and bring back to the fore when the UK average starts rising. At least that may be in the next few years
    :wall:
    What we've got here is....... failure to communicate.
    Some men you just can't reach.
    :wall:
  • IveSeenTheLight
    IveSeenTheLight Posts: 13,322 Forumite
    dopester wrote: »
    Thread bookmarked to comply with future notification of £72,447 reached (or thereabouts).

    I would say I'm looking forward to it, but then again, I think you will be waiting an awful long time.
    I tell you what, I'll bookmark as well and bring back to the fore when the UK average starts rising. At least that may be in the next few years ;)
    :wall:
    What we've got here is....... failure to communicate.
    Some men you just can't reach.
    :wall:
  • IveSeenTheLight
    IveSeenTheLight Posts: 13,322 Forumite
    Cannon_Fodder wrote: »
    Explain, this then.

    "Why has Aberdeen City been hit by -7% in one quarter?" BEFORE the oil price had dropped...mind.

    It didn't drop 7% in one quarter , it was -6.99% YOY in Q3 2008
    Cannon_Fodder wrote: »
    Scotland may be a bit behind the rest of us, but that just means Eng & Wales will be on the way up, when you are entering Neg Eq.

    It may be different this time due to the credit crunch, however the lagging theory is just b0llocks.
    The link shows how each area was affected for the last 20 years.
    You can see in there Edinburgh dropped in 1993, 1995 and 1997 and each following year of the drops increased by more than it dropped by. Nothing like what the UK average followed.
    I showed in this thread that Aberdeen did drop in the last crash, but nothing like what the UK average did

    People need to stop thinking of UK averages and start looking at individual areas. They are affected differently
    :wall:
    What we've got here is....... failure to communicate.
    Some men you just can't reach.
    :wall:
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