50% drops by 2011

hethmar

I think we oldies appreciate that this is a very serious situation, however because we have got the tee shirts for the previous recessions I guess we are more laid back about the possible outcome. We will survive!


Oh, and the 1 bed London suburb flat which keeps being used as evidence of 50% drop. Firstly it was overpriced as a newbuild so £300k cant be taken as a serious bench mark. Secondly it is shown as going to an auction with a "guide price" of £150k. This isnt the price they expect it to be sold for. We shall all have to wait til after the auction to see what it actually went for. Either way, this is not a genuine example of the current situation.

WTF?_2

manchestermike wrote: »

Of course the average price will fall, but even in the most overpriced areas expect no more than 35%

So the bullish view is "up to 35% falls from peak"?

Priceless.

Anyone saying prices could fall 35% off of peak this time last year would have been treated as some sort of tinfoil hat doomsayer. Now the advice is; Don't worry, it's only going to be up to 35%.

I'm lovin' it

chucky

!!!!!!? wrote: »

So the bullish view is "up to 35% falls from peak"?

Priceless.

Anyone saying prices could fall 35% off of peak this time last year would have been treated as some sort of tinfoil hat doomsayer. Now the advice is; Don't worry, it's only going to be up to 35%.

I'm lovin' it

wow - easy there !!!!!!...

Originally Posted by manchestermike
Of course the average price will fall, but even in the most overpriced areas expect no more than 35%


he said in the most overpriced areas - NOT 35% down in the UK

andys15

!!!!!!? wrote: »

So the bullish view is "up to 35% falls from peak"?

Priceless.

Anyone saying prices could fall 35% off of peak this time last year would have been treated as some sort of tinfoil hat doomsayer. Now the advice is; Don't worry, it's only going to be up to 35%.

I'm lovin' it

'Que sera, sera,
'Whatever will be, will be;
'The future's not ours to see.
'Que sera, sera,
'What will be, will be.

chucky

RDB wrote: »

I disagree Chucky, Everyone I talk to agree rents are definitely falling in London and the future looks like bigger falls. So Brit is right.

Please try to back up your claim with something credential if you still believe what you read in that paper.

"There are lies, damn lies and statistics" that paper has all 3. Reality is something different.

RDB - how about this for backing it up - it's from the same day

http://ukpress.google.com/article/ALeqM5in37WTIFqq6YPAl8sFWrRG3I4lSA
http://www.mortgagestrategy.co.uk/cgi-bin/item.cgi?id=171298&d=403&h=401&f=402

you've obviously been unlucky in things that happened in your personal life... redundancy or something close to you. this doesn't mean that you have to reject anything that is not of your opinion and say it is not true. reality is everything around you not just your personal circumstances.

also if you read on and you'll see my latest post on what i was saying...

mummyfrugal

Hmmm... I see lots of peeps on here want a 50% 70% and more??? drop....

...sorry but it aint gonna happen guys. There are still FILTHY RICH INVESTORS in this country that will swoop down and buy these properties from under the noses of first time buyers to let out (and as long term investments)..... how do I know? well just look in the past at the last boom n bust - properties took a right plunge and the vultures were there (with the CASH - not mortgages to snap them up). Some of these investors (not all I agree) have brains and off-loaded tons of property at the peak (so mega cash burning a hole in their pockets) - playing the waiting game... and it is a game to them - their homes are not at risk.

The mega rich Russians still wanna live in London - the difference to them? They just pay a little less - they will still keep coming and buying.

People are still greedy too. If they can get a mortgage to buy-to-let they will (a deposit of 15% is nothing to some people) and as soon as prices drop.... just enough for a profit, you can bet that they will start buying again (greed never stops growing).

Expect prices to continue to drop, but slow down.....any bargains are being bought up (check it out for yourself - go to the auctions... they are going - guess who to??)

dopester

mummyfrugal wrote: »

The mega rich Russians still wanna live in London - the difference to them? They just pay a little less - they will still keep coming and buying.

Wishful thinking. There isn't enough cash out there to support property prices around the UK, and those who have money mostly know how to use it wisely.

Still have to laugh at ISTL thinking his spectacular HPI gains over 2 years are permanent. Scotland has just seen two of its oldest banks implode. The government won't have any success in propping up house prices via easy credit.

Your Labour masters have sold you a corrupt illusion and the 300% HPI isn't real and reality is returning.

Cash is king now. Those who have it or can get finance won't be over-paying for anything. Aberdeen and near enough everywhere else is going to crash back to 1992 prices.

WTF?_2

chucky wrote: »

wow - easy there !!!!!!...

Originally Posted by manchestermike
Of course the average price will fall, but even in the most overpriced areas expect no more than 35%


he said in the most overpriced areas - NOT 35% down in the UK

Well, the fuller context was:

50% falls, 70% falls... maybe in certain areas where they have been over-run with high (read over) priced "designer" apartments... but overall, not a chance. Of course the average price will fall, but even in the most overpriced areas expect no more than 35%

It's quite remarkable that this would be the optimistic POV.

But then again, with approx 12% overall average falls in one year, in a relatively benign economic climate which is rapidly worsening, maybe that is quite optimistic.

neverdespairgirl

mummyfrugal wrote: »

There are still FILTHY RICH INVESTORS in this country that will swoop down and buy these properties from under the noses of first time buyers to let out (and as long term investments)..... how do I know? well just look in the past at the last boom n bust - properties took a right plunge and the vultures were there (with the CASH - not mortgages to snap them up).

In London, at least, that simply didn't happen in any significant way in the early to mid 1990s. The market bumped along tamely for ages.

IveSeenTheLight

dopester wrote: »

Still have to laugh at ISTL thinking his spectacular HPI gains over 2 years are permanent.

Once again you mis quote me.
I have never said anything of the sort.
Despite repeatingly asking you not to mis-quote me you still do.
Once again I ask, whenever you quote me, please attach a link to show the quote

dopester wrote: »

Aberdeen and near enough everywhere else is going to crash back to 1992 prices.

:rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl:
Sorry, stop sniggering ISTL

Really, I guess people may be able to have a house where they work, one by the seaside and another in the country then.

According to HBOS Aberdeen average was £72,447
**NOTE** back then there was only one figure for Aberdeen and Aberdeenshire and this compares to the Aberdeenshire figure now.

Please quote me when it drops to that figure again

:rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl:
Sorry, I may even have to nominate you for Post of the month.
Certainly wins Friday joke of the day