Meltdown..4000 ? tomorrow ? (edited 10/10 -it's a meltdown! 3900 )

StevieJ

Reaper wrote: »

Anthony Bolton (someone who's opinion I value) said if the market went below 4500 there would be some good opportunities for selective buying in solid companies with good yields. Unfortunately I can't find the original article online but here is a similar one.

With the stock market well below that figure it might be close to the time a brave investor could make some good money, particularly if it does fall again early tomorrow. However I'm not ready to put my money where my mouth is yet! Anybody else feeling brave?

I think brave was when the market was 6700 not 4300, investing at that level is conservative.

benood

StevieJ wrote: »

Just checked and the FTSE 100 is trading at 8.99 p/e and a yield of 5.32. I know you won't agree with me but you could buy that with your pension fund and retire on the dividend. It is a well diversified HighYield Portfolio. IMHO.

Out of interest where did you get that info from - I've seen on digital look it shows a yield of 5% and a p/e of 14 - http://www.digitallook.com but not certain I'm looking at the right thing.

TRUSt_NO_1_2

StevieJ wrote: »

Just checked and the FTSE 100 is trading at 8.99 p/e and a yield of 5.32. I know you won't agree with me but you could buy that with your pension fund and retire on the dividend. It is a very safe HighYield Portfolio.

Surely there is a significant lag in P/E ratios,and particularly in the current climate,where sales are tanking,home equity which drives consumer spending is tanking and credit availability is disappearing.
Tax revenues will be plummeting,so the biggest employer in the country by a long long way will continue to cut back,by slashing jobs/contracts etc...
A downward spiral ensues.
My perception based on my own experience is that indirect taxation has milked the cow dry.
On top of this the simple logic that some foreigners will do the same job for a tenth of the wage/salary.
Plus,something that no one seems to talk about much - mechanisation and computers.They don't need to be fed/pampered/paid sick pay/go off work pregnant.
The 'system' in the UK has been supported by the only thing available to stop the inevitable trend-Massive public (borrowing) spending.
The government(country) is bankrupt .
Stock markets will rise...but purchasing power of the £ will fall at a greater. rate

StevieJ

benood wrote: »

Out of interest where did you get that info from - I've seen on digital look it shows a yield of 5% and a p/e of 14 - http://www.digitallook.com but not certain I'm looking at the right thing.

Financial Times, Choose 9 for the date and Equities under category and FTSE Atuaries Share indices UK

http://markets.ft.com/ft/markets/researchArchive.asp?report=FTUK&cat=EQ

StevieJ

TRUSt_NO_1 wrote: »

Surely there is a significant lag in P/E ratios,and particularly in the current climate,where sales are tanking,home equity which drives consumer spending is tanking and credit availability is disappearing.
Tax revenues will be plummeting,so the biggest employer in the country by a long long way will continue to cut back,by slashing jobs/contracts etc...
A downward spiral ensues.
My perception based on my own experience is that indirect taxation has milked the cow dry.
On top of this the simple logic that some foreigners will do the same job for a tenth of the wage/salary.
Plus,something that no one seems to talk about much - mechanisation and computers.They don't need to be fed/pampered/paid sick pay/go off work pregnant.
The 'system' in the UK has been supported by the only thing available to stop the inevitable trend-Massive public (borrowing) spending.
The government(country) is bankrupt .
Stock markets will rise...but purchasing power of the £ will fall at a greater. rate

I expect profits to fall in the short term, increasing those p/e ratios but they probably will rise again long term, so buying in at these levels could prove a monumental buy.
Dividends are usually quite sticky although the banks are likely to be the main downward push.
Have you ever heard news broadcasts from the 60s and 70s (devaluation, 3 day week, industries destroyed, IMF begging bowl) plus this was also a time of computerization, high taxes. So what is new?

StevieJ

benood wrote: »

Out of interest where did you get that info from - I've seen on digital look it shows a yield of 5% and a p/e of 14 - http://www.digitallook.com but not certain I'm looking at the right thing.

Just looked at those figures it says p/e current 14 forecast 11 now you expect the forecast to be lower than the current moving into a recession because you would expect it to be based on future profit forecasts

moneywolf

The market will pick up tomorrow, remember after sept 11

the end of the world had come for the markets, but they did recover.

I the FTSE ends up at 0 the i will buy every asset in the country for £1 then reap all the rewards when people finally realise there is more to life than the numbers on the stock market

chopperharris

moneywolf wrote: »

The market will pick up tomorrow, remember after sept 11

the end of the world had come for the markets, but they did recover.

I the FTSE ends up at 0 the i will buy every asset in the country for £1 then reap all the rewards when people finally realise there is more to life than the numbers on the stock market

how long did the the last one take to bounce back , or 1929?

TRUSt_NO_1_2

StevieJ wrote: »

I expect profits to fall in the short term, increasing those p/e ratios but they probably will rise again long term, so buying in at these levels could prove a monumental buy.
Dividends are usually quite sticky although the banks are likely to be the main downward push.
Have you ever heard news broadcasts from the 60s and 70s (devaluation, 3 day week, industries destroyed, IMF begging bowl) plus this was also a time of computerization, high taxes. So what is new?

When we still used to make things in this country,before we became a service economy...which is moving overseas...(apart from the public sector which just consumes)
Yes I remember.

But I'm not sure you remember

StevieJ wrote: »

plus this was also a time of computerization

...unless you're talking mainframes...which were like rocking horse 5hit in the UK (and needed office fulls of girls punching data cards).

StevieJ

[quote=TRUSt_NO_1;14857611]When we still used to make things in this country,before we became a service economy...which is moving overseas...(apart from the public sector which just consumes)
Yes I remember.

But I'm not sure you remember


...unless you're talking mainframes...which were like rocking horse 5hit in the UK (and needed office fulls of girls punching data cards).[/quote

Oh yes manufacturing, that was the Milk Snatchers biggest achievement, I think we went negative on manufacturing around 1984.
Yes punch office - 'You are too late you have missed the deadline' They always used to have an Ogre in charge and a load of fit babes doing the work.