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Meltdown..4000 ? tomorrow ? (edited 10/10 -it's a meltdown! 3900 )
Comments
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Are you really only 6 years old?
At the start of the millenium you had a number of events that occured over a prolonged period and the markets were in a buble at the time. The FTSE100 dropped 44.66% then (5/9/2000-13/3/2003). This time it has dropped 38%. So, at this very moment in time, the stockmarket is down less than it dropped then. Although its quite possible that we will match it tomorrow. Of course that is the markets. The economic situation is different and the markets and the economies dont always work in the same timescales. Markets tend to overeact going up and overeact when they go down. They also tend to act in advance.
The economy in the UK is screwed and the chickens are coming home to roost....for quite a while.0 -
Are you really only 6 years old?
At the start of the millenium you had a number of events that occured over a prolonged period and the markets were in a buble at the time. The FTSE100 dropped 44.66% then (5/9/2000-13/3/2003). This time it has dropped 38%. So, at this very moment in time, the stockmarket is down less than it dropped then. Although its quite possible that we will match it tomorrow. Of course that is the markets. The economic situation is different and the markets and the economies dont always work in the same timescales. Markets tend to overeact going up and overeact when they go down. They also tend to act in advance.
The big difference is the valuations, this drop has come from relatively low valuations whereas the previous drop was from sky high valuations. This means that the market could be trading at less than 9 p/e (unbelievable), you got Shell with a dividend yield of well over 6% (Shell has never cut its dividend) for example.'Just think for a moment what a prospect that is. A single market without barriers visible or invisible giving you direct and unhindered access to the purchasing power of over 300 million of the worlds wealthiest and most prosperous people' Margaret Thatcher0 -
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TRUSt_NO_1 wrote: »The economy in the UK is screwed and the chickens are coming home to roost....for quite a while.
The UK stock market is not tied to the UK economy (screwed or not).'Just think for a moment what a prospect that is. A single market without barriers visible or invisible giving you direct and unhindered access to the purchasing power of over 300 million of the worlds wealthiest and most prosperous people' Margaret Thatcher0 -
The big difference is the valuations, this drop has come from relatively low valuations whereas the previous drop was from sky high valuations. This means that the market could be trading at less than 9 p/e (unbelievable), you got Shell with a dividend yield of well over 6% (Shell has never cut its dividend) for example.
Which is why logic suggests that it cant keep it up. Companies turning in record profits which are not going to be hit by a recession have tanked as much as those that are likely to be. There comes a point when common sense overtakes fear. Often when the fear money has all gone from the market. Other parts of the world have gone down despite their economies still growing and still likely to grow.
If you look at a "typical" crash you get volatility, quite a lot of drops, then some stability and rises. You think you are past it and then wallop you get a period of very large drops with occasional rises but much lower than the drops. Then comes the period of calm where you get two weeks or so of little or no activty on the markets and then you start the road to recovery. The shape and size of the crash is always unknown but it would be nice if this is the final shake of the fear money before the quiet weeks come and common sense returns.I am an Independent Financial Adviser (IFA). The comments I make are just my opinion and are for discussion purposes only. They are not financial advice and you should not treat them as such. If you feel an area discussed may be relevant to you, then please seek advice from an Independent Financial Adviser local to you.0 -
Which is why logic suggests that it cant keep it up. Companies turning in record profits which are not going to be hit by a recession have tanked as much as those that are likely to be. There comes a point when common sense overtakes fear. Often when the fear money has all gone from the market. Other parts of the world have gone down despite their economies still growing and still likely to grow.
If you look at a "typical" crash you get volatility, quite a lot of drops, then some stability and rises. You think you are past it and then wallop you get a period of very large drops with occasional rises but much lower than the drops. Then comes the period of calm where you get two weeks or so of little or no activty on the markets and then you start the road to recovery. The shape and size of the crash is always unknown but it would be nice if this is the final shake of the fear money before the quiet weeks come and common sense returns.
So are you saying that as soon as news on the stock market goes quiet and the market is calm, it would be a good idea to get a FTSE 100 tracking isa?Savings
£14,200 with £1100 M.I.A. presumed dead.0 -
Which is why logic suggests that it cant keep it up. Companies turning in record profits which are not going to be hit by a recession have tanked as much as those that are likely to be. There comes a point when common sense overtakes fear. Often when the fear money has all gone from the market. Other parts of the world have gone down despite their economies still growing and still likely to grow.
If you look at a "typical" crash you get volatility, quite a lot of drops, then some stability and rises. You think you are past it and then wallop you get a period of very large drops with occasional rises but much lower than the drops. Then comes the period of calm where you get two weeks or so of little or no activty on the markets and then you start the road to recovery. The shape and size of the crash is always unknown but it would be nice if this is the final shake of the fear money before the quiet weeks come and common sense returns.
Just checked and the FTSE 100 is trading at 8.99 p/e and a yield of 5.32. I know you won't agree with me but you could buy that with your pension fund and retire on the dividend. It is a very safe HighYield Portfolio.'Just think for a moment what a prospect that is. A single market without barriers visible or invisible giving you direct and unhindered access to the purchasing power of over 300 million of the worlds wealthiest and most prosperous people' Margaret Thatcher0 -
So are you saying that as soon as news on the stock market goes quiet and the market is calm, it would be a good idea to get a FTSE 100 tracking isa?
No-one can call bottom. It will come and it will go and only time will tell. However, typically, when activity on the markets dies (not much buying or selling going on) for an extended period, it does suggest we could be there.
Only history is cast in stone. The future has yet to be written.Just checked and the FTSE 100 is trading at 8.99 p/e and a yield of 5.32. I know you won't agree with me but you could buy that with your pension fund and retire on the dividend. It is a very safe HighYield Portfolio.
A single share would be pushing it for but with those figures, on paper it does look good.I am an Independent Financial Adviser (IFA). The comments I make are just my opinion and are for discussion purposes only. They are not financial advice and you should not treat them as such. If you feel an area discussed may be relevant to you, then please seek advice from an Independent Financial Adviser local to you.0 -
Which is why logic suggests that it cant keep it up. Companies turning in record profits which are not going to be hit by a recession have tanked as much as those that are likely to be. There comes a point when common sense overtakes fear. Often when the fear money has all gone from the market. Other parts of the world have gone down despite their economies still growing and still likely to grow.
If you look at a "typical" crash you get volatility, quite a lot of drops, then some stability and rises. You think you are past it and then wallop you get a period of very large drops with occasional rises but much lower than the drops. Then comes the period of calm where you get two weeks or so of little or no activty on the markets and then you start the road to recovery. The shape and size of the crash is always unknown but it would be nice if this is the final shake of the fear money before the quiet weeks come and common sense returns.
Just checked and the FTSE 100 is trading at 8.99 p/e and a yield of 5.32. I know you won't agree with me but you could buy that with your pension fund and retire on the dividend. It is a well diversified HighYield Portfolio. IMHO.'Just think for a moment what a prospect that is. A single market without barriers visible or invisible giving you direct and unhindered access to the purchasing power of over 300 million of the worlds wealthiest and most prosperous people' Margaret Thatcher0 -
Anthony Bolton (someone who's opinion I value) said if the market went below 4500 there would be some good opportunities for selective buying in solid companies with good yields. Unfortunately I can't find the original article online but here is a similar one.
With the stock market well below that figure it might be close to the time a brave investor could make some good money, particularly if it does fall again early tomorrow. However I'm not ready to put my money where my mouth is yet! Anybody else feeling brave?0
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