I can't stand the doom crew anymore

Cannon_Fodder

While the mortgage amount itself and the interest rates are obviously not unimportant, I think the real issue is the salary multiple.

It is not just that some people's multiple would be insufficient to get them a home, as they just get frustrated but stay renting/potential-FTB...

Its those who squeeze across the thresholds of acceptability at 5x or 6x, will then get hammered by the TINIEST change in interest rates/disappearance of mortgage deals etc...

And by definition their disposable income is next to nothing in the first place...


rant begins...

DD - stop stirring things up. Carolt is NOT the first person on these boards to use ar5e or anything similar. you certainly have done the same. why is it ok for bulls to be rude in the past but cant take it now? because they are so damned defensive at their absurdly stupid recent positions that are now coming home to roost, perhaps? who can tell, as they shift their positions like quicksand, to suit circumstances.


rant over.

Dithering_Dad

carolt wrote: »

I was a recent graduate then [1993] and I am referring to new grads with no more than a year or 2's work experience, buying an average 2 bed flat in London. Price then - 60K (or 72K in Camden - how expensive!). Salary - new grads average 14K so probably 16-18K after a year or 2. Mortgage = 3 times salary plus small deposit.

Same flats now - 250-500K. New graduate salary - 20K ish? I believe. Maybe 22-24K after a couple of years? So 10-20 times salary multiple to get the same flat.

Of course it was just as hard then. My ar5e.

Interesting that you only refer to the price of houses when they had reached the bottom of the market in 1993. Here is a table of average prices in Greater London, taken from the HPC website:

The Previous Cycle... and The Current Cycle
Yr./Mon Gr.Lond %Peak ... Yr./Mon Gr.Lond %Peak

1983.12 £41,168 39.12 ... 1998.12 £110,787 45.33
1984.12 £46,986 44.65 ... 1999.12 £142,233 58.19
1985.12 £55,568 52.80 ... 2000.12 £153,454 62.78
1986.12 £69,438 65.98 ... 2001.12 £179,546 73.46
1987.12 £85,356 81.11 ... 2002.12 £213,957 87.53
1988.03 £90,374 85.88 ... 2003.06 £212,824 87.08
1988.06 £96,334 91.54 ... 2003.12 £232,679 95.20
1988.09 102,422 97.33 ... 2004.03 £239,439 97.97
'88.12 105,234 100% P '04.06 £244,411 100% -Peak-
1989.03 104,963 99.74 ... 2004.09 £242,797 99.34
1989.06 102,476 97.38 ... 2004.12 £241,778 98.92
1989.09 £99,133 94.20 ... 2005.03 £241,918 98.98
1989.12 £96,193 91.41 ... 2005.06 £238,950 97.77 Qtrly:-£2968 -1.1%
1990.03 £96,474 91.68 ... 2005.09
1990.06 £94,125 89.44 ... 2005.12
1990.09 £91,857 87.29
1990.12 £93,540 88.89 ...
1991.03 £91,091 86.56
1991.06 £90,188 85.70 ... 2006.12
1991.09 £88,085 83.70
1991.12 £86,672 82.36 ...
1992.03 £83,349 79.20
1992.06 £80,497 76.49 ... 2007.12
1992.09 £79,224 75.28
1992.12 £76,605 72.79 ...
1993.03 £75,832 72.06
1993.06 £76,480 72.68 ... 2008.12
1993.09 £76,677 72.86
1993.12 £76,439 72.64 ...
1994.03 £77,851 73.98
1994.06 £77,703 73.84 ... 2009.12
1994.09 £78,015 74.13
1994.12 £78,018 74.13 ...
1995.03 £78,194 74.30
1995.06 £77,742 73.88 ... 2010.12
1995.09 £76,946 73.12
1995.12 £77,203 73.36 ...

Had carolt graduated in 1988, the average GTR London house price was 105,234, far above her 3x salary. Even just 3 years earlier in 1990 the average price was £96,474 Q1.

Strange that carolt graduated during the last HPC, was earning a pretty good salary and yet didn't take advantage of it. Even in 1995, two years after she graduated, she still didn't take her chance. Christ, no wonder she's such a bitter individual!

Well I'm hoping that she'll take the plunge this time around, I'd hate for her to miss out again.

beecher

Dithering_Dad wrote: »

I'd forgotten all about MIRAS - The level of Miras was 10% of the first £30,000 of the price of a cost of a house.

Also, interest rates were higher than your quoted 8%...

As I said I got mixed up with when I bought my flat - it was 1996.

Don't get me wrong - I get annoyed with FTB who simply 'must' have a spare room, and who wouldn't put up with the tiny flat I bought then. But I know that I couldn't afford a £100,000 mortgage now, and I could afford a £35,000 one then.

Cannon_Fodder

Dithering_Dad wrote: »

You're such an unpleasant person Carolt. Why can't you just make your point without having to add all the nasty stuff?

No doubt your 'tag partner' !!!!!!? will be along shortly to back you up. You guys really can't fight your own battles can you?

Watch out for !!!!!!? everyone, then ask yourselves if there are 'gangs' and 'bullies' on this forum....

you just edited that 2 mintues after !!!!!! put his response, in an attempt to look clever....

do you think we are stupid???


TROLL.

GDB2222

Dithering_Dad wrote: »

Backtracking a bit now carolt?

The trouble with your premise that it was easier to buy a house in the 90's 'because house prices were lower compared with wages then' is that we were in a recession and so people were out of work, had overtime taken away or were fearful for their jobs. Hence the lower price of housing. Interest rates were also much higher then.

Sorry to intervene, but from 1993 to 1997 base rate was in the range 5% to 6%, ie same as now but more than it was a couple of years ago. http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/mfsd/iadb/Repo.asp

Mortgage rates were lower than now, as they were closer to base rate. By 1993, the economy was growing pretty strongly again.

I don't think you have your facts right. Houses were much more affordable then than now, because the ratio of price to earnings was about half what it is now,

Possibly people were more fearful of their jobs then, but surely anyone embarking on a 25 year mortgage must allow for the possibility of job loss during that period, even if the economy is booming at the time.

GDB2222

StevieJ wrote: »

Fine, but interest rates were a lot higher so, your net outgoings would have been similar.

No, that's simply not correct. Go check out the facts before posting, please. There's enough hot air in this thread as it is. http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/mfsd/iadb/Repo.asp

Dithering_Dad

Cannon_Fodder wrote: »

DD - stop stirring things up. Carolt is NOT the first person on these boards to use ar5e or anything similar. you certainly have done the same. why is it ok for bulls to be rude in the past but cant take it now? because they are so damned defensive at their absurdly stupid recent positions that are now coming home to roost, perhaps? who can tell, as they shift their positions like quicksand, to suit circumstances.

I only started contributing to this forum about 2 months ago, so have never been one of these 'rude bulls' you guys keep referring to (and using to justify your own rudeness).

I have no BTLs and I have a home that I bought in 2002 with a hefty deposit from my first property bought in 1993. I have never been bothered about my home's 'value' but have instead been concerned with the mortgage value and have decreased this by 25% since April 2007.

With those credentials established I'll now go on to say that I actually want a reduction in house prices so that I can either move a step up the property 'ladder' much cheaply, or I can stay put and buy a couple of BTLs to supplement my income. Either way, I win if prices fall.

Why is it that if a person says anything against one of the established 'gang', do the rest of you run to each other's aid and accuse the contributor of being a rude and abusinve bull? Absolute rank bullying and rank cowardice.

WTF?_2

GDB2222 wrote: »

Sorry to intervene, but from 1993 to 1997 base rate was in the range 5% to 6%, ie same as now but more than it was a couple of years ago. http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/mfsd/iadb/Repo.asp

Mortgage rates were lower than now, as they were closer to base rate. By 1993, the economy was growing pretty strongly again.

I don't think you have your facts right. Houses were much more affordable then than now, because the ratio of price to earnings was about half what it is now,

Possibly people were more fearful of their jobs then, but surely anyone embarking on a 25 year mortgage must allow for the possibility of job loss during that period, even if the economy is booming at the time.

I posted this in the thread about mortgage rates. 6% is definitely on the low side compared to rates since 1985.

(EDIT: Just to clarify - those are BoE base rates. SVR was typically 1.5-2.5% higher.)

UK Interest rates, 1985-2008, taken from houseweb.co.uk

http://www.houseweb.co.uk/house/market/irfig.html

Year Month Rate Change
2008 10th April 5.00% - 0.25 %
7th Feb 5.25 % - 0.25 %

2007 6th Dec 5.50 % - 0.25 %
5th July 5.75 % 0.25 %
10th May 5.50 % 0.25 %
12th Jan 5.25 % 0.25 %

2006 10th Nov 5.00 % 0.25 %
4th Aug 4.75 % 0.25 %

2005 4th Aug 4.50 % - 0.25 %

2004 5th Aug 4.75 % 0.25 %
11th June 4.50 % 0.25 %
7th May 4.25 % 0.25 %
6th Feb 4.00 % 0.25 %

2003 7th Nov 3.75 % 0.25 %
11th Jul 3.50 % - 0.25 %
8th Feb 3.75 % - 0.25 %

2001 9th Nov 4.00 % - 0.50 %
4th Oct 4.50 % - 0.25 %
20th Sept 4.75 % - 0.25 %
3rd Aug 5.00 % - 0.25 %
11th May 5.25 % - 0.25 %
6th Apr 5.50 % - 0.25 %
8th Feb 5.75 % - 0.25 %

2000 10th Feb 6.00 % 0.25 %
15th Jan 5.75 % 0.25 %

1999 5th Nov 5.50 % 0.25 %
Sept 5.25 % 0.25 %
Jun 5.00 % - 0.25 %
Feb 5.50 % - 0.50 %
Feb 5.25 % - 0.25 %
Jan 6.00 % - 0.25 %

1998 Dec 6.25 % - 0.50 %
Nov 6.75 % - 0.50 %
Oct 7.25 % - 0.25 %
July 7.50 % 0.25 %

1997 Nov 7.25 % 0.25 %
Aug 7.00 % 0.25 %
Jul 6.75 % 0.25 %
Jun 6.50 % 0.25 %
May 6.25 % 0.25 %

1996 Oct 6.00 % 0.25 %
Jun 5.75 % - 0.25 %
Mar 6.00 % - 0.25 %
Jan 6.25 % - 0.25 %

1995 Dec 6.50 % - 0.25 %
Feb 6.75 % 0.50 %

1994 Dec 6.25 % 0.50 %
Sep 5.75 % 0.50 %
Feb 5.25 % - 0.25 %

1993 Nov 5.50 % - 0.50 %
Jan 6.00 % - 1.00 %

1992 Nov 7.00 % - 1.00 %
Oct 8.00 % - 1.00 %
Sep 9.00 % - 1.00 %
May 10.00 % - 0.50 %

1991 Sep 10.50 % - 0.50 %
Jul 11.00 % - 0.50 %
May 11.50 % - 0.50 %
Apr 12.00 % - 0.50 %
Mar 12.50 % - 0.50 %
Feb 13.00 % - 1.00 %

1990 Oct 14.00 % - 1.00 %

1989 Oct 15.00 % 1.00 %
May 14.00 % 1.00 %

1988 Nov 13.00 % 1.00 %
Aug 12.00 % 1.50 %
Jul 10.50 % 1.00 %
Jun 9.50 % 2.00 %
May 7.50 % - 0.50 %
Apr 8.00 % - 0.50 %
Mar 8.50 % - 0.50 %
Feb 9.00 % 0.50 %

1987 Dec 8.50 % - 0.50 %
Nov 9.00 % - 0.50 %
Oct 9.50 % - 0.50 %
Aug 10.00 % 1.00 %
May 9.00 % - 0.50 %
Apr 9.50 % - 0.50 %
Mar 10.00 % - 1.00 %

1986 Oct 11.00 % 1.00 %
May 10.00 % - 0.50 %
Apr 10.50 % - 1.00 %
Mar 11.50 % - 1.00 %

1985 Jul 11.50 % - 1.00 %
May 12.50 % - 0.25 %
Apr 12.75 % - 0.75 %
Mar 13.50 % - 0.50 %
Janl 14.00 %

justpurchased

Dithering_Dad wrote: »

I only started contributing to this forum about 2 months ago, so have never been one of these 'rude bulls' you guys keep referring to (and using to justify your own rudeness).

I have no BTLs and I have a home that I bought in 2002 with a hefty deposit from my first property bought in 1993. I have never been bothered about my home's 'value' but have instead been concerned with the mortgage value and have decreased this by 25% since April 2007.

With those credentials established I'll now go on to say that I actually want a reduction in house prices so that I can either move a step up the property 'ladder' much cheaply, or I can stay put and buy a couple of BTLs to supplement my income. Either way, I win if prices fall.

Why is it that if a person says anything against one of the established 'gang', do the rest of you run to each other's aid and accuse the contributor of being a rude and abusinve bull? Absolute rank bullying and rank cowardice.

Agreed please see the title of my thread! But I was more referred to as an angry bull, thick, fool, unintelligent, uninformed, or negative equity. If anyone else can remember any more please add them.

Dithering_Dad

Cannon_Fodder wrote: »

you just edited that 2 mintues after !!!!!! put his response, in an attempt to look clever....

do you think we are stupid???

Regards,
TROLL.

Um, in your case, yes I do.