sales are up! why?

mewbie_2

chucky wrote: »

everybody should be so fortunate to have such a well informed person on this forum...

Well spotted Chucky - it did sound like I was talking down to you didn't it.

Good.

Austin_Allegro

mewbie wrote: »

It is interesting to hear from the less informed people though, because they make up the mass of people who will be deciding what to do. I am curious to see just how long before sentiment completely turns, when absolutely no one will buy, even though there may be bargains.

I can understand most of these sheeple didn't live through the 70's or the 90's, and don't read much or take much in really - but surely they were all dimly aware of the dot com bubble a few short years ago.

I think most people just don't think very rationally about financial matters and especially not when they relate to housing. Housing is such an emotional issue in this country (home is where the heart is, as they say). The mass of people don't seem to be interested in informed decision, they seem to think in terms of headlines or soundbites - 'get on the ladder', 'renting is dead money' etc with no ability to see the wider picture.

In the old days when most people rented or were in council housing, and banks had strict limitations on lending, this level of ignorance didn't matter. The only people who could aspire to home ownership were those that could show they had a reasonable control of their finances.

Once the Pandora's box of easy credit was opened, however, and banks fell over themselves to lend out money to anyone with a pulse, it meant that financially illiterate people were suddenly able to play with hundreds of thousands of pounds - like kids in a sweetshop. That, IMO is why we are in such a pickle today.

Chris2685

dopester wrote: »

Have you ever thought your circle of acquaintances in your area might be of a demographic which doesn't fully weigh up all the factors impinging on house prices and the economy in the same way a much wider platform such as an internet forum can do?

They may not actively discuss financial matters as much as the people in these forums do, but they are the public, and what they think is what drives the market. I think that a lot of what happens in the market is driven by hype from the news, not so much economic sense.

If everyone knew exactly what was going to happen, then it would happen differently...

justpurchased

Chris2685 wrote: »

They may not actively discuss financial matters as much as the people in these forums do, but they are the public, and what they think is what drives the market. I think that a lot of what happens in the market is driven by hype from the news, not so much economic sense.

If everyone knew exactly what was going to happen, then it would happen differently...

I agree with your oppinions.:beer:

wymondham

Chris2685 wrote: »

They may not actively discuss financial matters as much as the people in these forums do, but they are the public, and what they think is what drives the market.

This would explain why people are still buying houses, when financially it does not make any sense

dopester

Chris2685 wrote: »

They may not actively discuss financial matters as much as the people in these forums do, but they are the public, and what they think is what drives the market. I think that a lot of what happens in the market is driven by hype from the news, not so much economic sense.

If everyone knew exactly what was going to happen, then it would happen differently...

Your presumptions give the sheeple too much power to determine the market. You are so wrong about it just being "hype" from the news and not an economic crisis that it just isn't worth the effort in trying to put you right about it. Presumably you have no fears about your own employment outlook?

Yes market sentiment is important. Especially for FTBs.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2008/08/26/bcnmort126.xml

Rick Salmon of the BBA said: "There has been this decline in the number of loans approved in the last six months. It is down to a very quiet housing market and partly driven by people not wanting to borrow in the context of house prices falling."

Yet it is both sentiment and the ability to borrow the necessary funds, and it might have escaped your attention that the banks have imposed more stringent borrowing qualifications on FTBs.

FTBs need near a £40,000 deposit for an average priced house at the moment, there are no cheap and easy teaser interest rates around, so servicing a mortgage is more expensive, added to which energy / fuel / food has been hitting incomes as well.

Unemployment is beginning to bite, the general economy is deteriorating quite rapidly, and people are weighed down by debt.

fimonkey

Since I've been reading these forums I see the media are actually quite slow to report what's happening, and then only give an overview anyhow. So at the moment the overview has been "house-prices falling" but they had started to do so BEFORE the media began to report it. .. So whilst I agree the daily-red-top has an amount of power over sheeple, they do not dictate what's happening.... Watch this space for next media reports of "house -prices picking up again".. whilst those who read this forum know it'll be a temporary blip before even further slides, the media will not predict that. merely report it once it's happened.

0james0

mewbie wrote: »

It is interesting to hear from the less informed people though, because they make up the mass of people who will be deciding what to do. I am curious to see just how long before sentiment completely turns, when absolutely no one will buy, even though there may be bargains.

I agree, it is interesting to hear the views of people that aren't that informed. Because of the fact there are far more less informed than informed this country is run by the sun, the mirror etc. People believe what they hear, despite our better nature in believing the tabloids. If the sun say its a good time to buy, how many people will believe it? -the estate agents will be buzzing agian.

as soon as the papers get bored of the credit crunch, Britney has another baby etc then things will quickly change.

There will never be a time when no one will buy, so many people couldn't care less about interest rates, price drops and don't even know what a recession is. These people just want their own home and even they know that if they buy now, in 10 years time it will be worth more than they paid for it.

Thank god for ignorance!

In all parts of an economic cycle there are winners and losers, I bet you there are people buying now, lots of them that in 5 years time will turn around and be so glad they did not listen to the synics.

0james0

dopester wrote: »

FTBs need near a £40,000 deposit for an average priced house at the moment.

Either you are mis-informed or you live somewhere a lot more expensive than the rest of us. £40k! you haven't a clue!

mewbie_2

Some people are indeed continuing to buy now, when they can get a loan. But slowly the herd is turning. More and more of the sheeple will actually know someone that can't sell their house, can't afford the mortgage, thinks it's better to rent for a while - and so their collective knowledge will change. They will eventually start thinking "I'm not an idiot therefore I won't buy a house".

And that, my friend, is probably the time to start looking.