Roll up. Make your housing market prediction here.

meanmachine_2

JanCee wrote:

Stagnation for the next 4 months then a 2.5% drop by the end of 2005.

Reaper when are you going to review this?

Well I'd *like* prices to correct sharply by around 30-40%, but that's unlikely to happen, so yes, continued flatlining till July, then a sudden dip as the London ripple effect hits all areas of the UK.

By the end of the year prices will be around 6-8% down on where they were 12 months ago.

After that, it's either an accelerated process, depressing the entire economy, or else a sharp cut in IR rates propping the economy up and facilitating this fabled "soft landing". But with China and the US on an inflationary path, I'd say that was unlikely.

Reaper

JanCee wrote:

Reaper when are you going to review this?

I'll keep posting the actual house prices quarerly as they are published, then I think at the end of the year I'll see if I can rate the predictions. Not very easy to do as people have gone for varying timescales and given them at different times but I'll try to come up with a winner and a wooden spoon.

Reaper

The lastest land registry figures have just been published. As mentioned before I am using land registry figures because they are widely accecpted as the most accurate. They are actual completed sales rather than applications for mortgages. Here are all the figures to date since I started the thread:

Average price of a house in England & Wales:
2004 Jul - Sep = £187,971 (starting point)
2004 Oct - Dec = £182,920
2005 Jan - Mar = £183,486
2005 Apr - Jun = £184,924

Which by my calculations is -1.6% from our start point up until today. Not looking good for the doomsayers, though there's still time for that big crash.

meanmachine_2

That latest rise is a surprise, to be sure.

Still, prices are down five percent-ish in London, so I'm happy enough to sit tight.

To be honest, I'm kinda bored of it all now.

A stagnant market isn't going to excite anyone.

If it falls I'll keep an eagle eye on it, just as if it starts rising sharply.

If it goes nowhere chances are I'll forget all aout buying and get a life!!

I just ain't a motivated buyer no more.

GreenB_2

What happens when/if HIPS come in (Home Information Packs)
I cannot see Sellers spending out the estimated £1,500 without expecting to get it back with increased sale prices.....perhaps now is not such a bad time to buy?

Reaper

Where does your £1500 figure come from? The one I heard was £600 e.g. from a Channel 4 website:

The government estimates the pack will cost between £500 to £600 to put together, slightly more in London. This breaks down as £280 for home condition reports, £200 for local authority searches and £125 in legal fees.

This just shifts the burden from the buyer to the seller as they need doing anyway. I'm sure the sellers will up the price slightly to cover the cost but as the buyers will have to pay less I don't think it will have much of an effect on the housing market.

nelly_2

GreenB wrote:

What happens when/if HIPS come in (Home Information Packs)
I cannot see Sellers spending out the estimated £1,500 without expecting to get it back with increased sale prices.....perhaps now is not such a bad time to buy?

Isnt that money the buyer would spend anyway??

plus the obvious goverment admin fees somewhere hidden and added+ tax +vat

greencat_2

GreenB wrote:

What happens when/if HIPS come in (Home Information Packs)
I cannot see Sellers spending out the estimated £1,500 without expecting to get it back with increased sale prices.....perhaps now is not such a bad time to buy?

I guess a lot of sellers will be buyers too so they'll be saving when they buy their next home. The people who will be less well off are the Buy to Letrs wanting to sell, Sell to Renters and those emigrating.

meanmachine_2

GreenB wrote:

What happens when/if HIPS come in (Home Information Packs)
I cannot see Sellers spending out the estimated £1,500 without expecting to get it back with increased sale prices.....perhaps now is not such a bad time to buy?

Straws...you...clutching...at.

Re-arrange.

Fact is, unles you're already on the ladder now ain't the time to buy.

Except...With petrol soaring, manufacturing costs soaring and US rates soaring, now would be a good time to fix your mortgage rate, I'll give you that.

But I'd rather wait for the inflation storm to hit and see what happens.

gallygirl

Average of 5% rise across the board Aug 05 to July 06.