Roll up. Make your housing market prediction here.

Reaper

Here is a brief summary of everybodys predictions:

Reaper (19/11/04) -5% by March 2006, then stagnate
deemy2004 (19/11/04) -15% by end of 2006
funkymonkey (19/11/04) -5% in Dec 2005, level until April, then a large drop
clarkey (19/11/04) -2% by May 05, another -8% by Dec 05, another -6% Dec 06, another -4% Dec 07
mkdoodle (19/11/04) +15-20% in 2005, -80% in 2006
diggingdaddy (14/12/04) -80% over the next 10 years
Walletwatch (15/12/04) +10% by April 2005, then average house price crash to 80K (that's about a -60% crash by my reckoning), then level off
John_M_Business (15/12/05) Certain areas level, rest drop 10% over 2005.
dougk (15/12/05) Fluctuations but overall no change for 18 months. Increases in north, decreases in south.
johannamse (15/12/05) Same as dougk, but slow increase in prices
stuartlwilliams (15/12/05) +10% increase in 2005
---* LAND REGISTRY figures published: 2.7% drop in 4th quarter of 2004 *---
Poppy9 (08/02/05) 30% drop with a continued downtrend for the next 2 years, then stagnate, then rise
rizla01 (08/02/05) 1-1.5% drop until election (Sept) then one of:
1) 5-7% growth in 2005 and continuing into 2006 (if stamp duty changes in budget)
2) 3% growth in 2005 (If no stamp duty change)
3) Drop 10-15% over 2 years, then recover in 2007 (if Torys win election)
mparter (08/02/05) Grow 3-4% over the next 6 months (no prediction after that)
---* LAND REGISTRY figures published: 0.3% rise in 1st quarter of 2005 *---
deemy2004 (24/05/05) ALTERED PREDICTION: Little movement for 3 months, then drop 5% in 3 months, then spiraling lower
JanCee (24/05/05) Stagnation for the next 4 months then a 2.5% drop by the end of 2005
meanmachine (24/05/05) Flat till July, then sudden dip 6-8%, then maybe level but more likely accelerated decline
---* LAND REGISTRY figures published: 0.8% rise in 2nd quarter of 2005 *---
meanmachine (08/08/05) Not a house price forecast but I couldn't resist... Predicated an imminent "inflation storm"
ali007 (08/08/05) 5% rise across the board Aug 05 to July 06
wibble68 (08/08/05) Year on year 0% by October, 8% fall in 2006, 10% fall in 2007
avi (08/08/05) +5% in 2006, then +5% rise after that
rizla01 (08/08/05) ALTERED PREDICTION: 5% - 7% rise for the next three years
Jacster 2005 (08/08/05) 2005: London/SE/North -5%, 2006: London/SE 15% fall, North 10% fall
GreenB (09/08/05) +10% over 10 years
John_M_Business (09/08/05) ALTERED PREDICTION: NE/Central W, Wales -20% over 2-3 years
Midlands/NW/SW/S -12% over 2-3 years, SE/London static 2-3 years
IN LIKE EVERYONE ELSE! (09/08/05) -20% or more
Kenny4315 (12/08/05) Level/slight fall for rest of year, -15% in 2006, -30% by 2007
ffacoffipawb (13/08/05) -30% in total over the next 5 years, worst in the NW, least in the SE
meanmachine (14/08/05) ALTERED PREDICTION: Either "soft landing" or bigger falls depending on interest rates
rozeepozee (29/08/05) 20% by the end of 2007 (didn't say if that's was up or down?!)
medieval (29/08/05) -20% over 2 years
---* LAND REGISTRY figures published: 5.2% rise in 3rd quarter of 2005 *---
---* LAND REGISTRY figures published: 1.7% fall in 4th quarter of 2005 *---
---* TOTAL: rise of 1.8% since the start of the competition *---

Some predications have been removed including those for Scotland (not covered by land registry figures), and ones such as "crash in 15 years time" !

Next post will be the winner....

Reaper

Extra points go to those who made early predictions and those who didn't keep changing their minds. Nobody got it perfectly right and I thought I was in with a chance myself but I have to accept I was beaten.

Runner up: johannamse
Spot on but failed to get 1st prize due to an absence of figures. Here is the original predication
"I agree with DougK. Some pockets will dip and others fall, but the overall trend will continue to creep upwards."

And the winner is (cue drum roll)... dougk
Who made the predication before any results were published, provided detailed figures, and also came the closest to boot. I haven't checked out the regional parts of his prediction as it's taken long enough to do this much, but here is the rest:
My prediction is that prices will bounce up and down by 3 or 4% for he next 4 or 5 months
REALITY: dropped 2.7% to end of the year, rose 0.3% for 3 months
before rising in the spring as we all get offered lots of promises by all the parties
REALITY: That 0.3% rise in 1st quarter, and 0.8% rise 2nd quarter
prices will then stay static for a few months , drop a couple of % over the winter
REALITY: +5.2% 3rd quarter, -1.7% 4th quarter
overall prediction is no change on average for the next 18 months
REALITY: +1.8% over the whole period

Which just leaves the prestigious wooden spoon award, which goes to Walletwatch for this prediction:
Goes up by 10% from today till end of April
REALITY: Dropped 2.4%
BoE raises base rates to 6.5%.
REALITY: 4.5%
At this point, the pound will exceed two dollars in value.
REALITY: Surprise rally by the dollar
reasonably dramatic crash (average house price will go down to £80k) and then stabilise
REALITY: Average house price £191,327 as at end of 2005

Thanks everybody for taking part. With hindsight I should have specified the time period and rules better at the start as the differing predictions have been very difficult to score.

Those who didn't win can take heart that the "experts" predictions have been no better than our own.

rozeepozee

Reaper wrote:

rozeepozee (29/08/05) 20% by the end of 2007 (didn't say if that's was up or down?!)


Next post will be the winner....

I meant down - surely you can't tell me whether or not I was the winner til the end of 2007

meanmachine_2

So in fact, the market overall was incredibly uninteresting. Nothing exciting on the upside, or dramatic on the downside.

Sort of sums up the UK as a whole.

But surely the biggest wooden spoon should go to someone who makes their living from being an "expert". My pick would be Roger Bootle. Not only did he predict a 20% crash, but also that rates would be at 3.5% by now, or at least within the next few months.

Anyway reaper thanks for doing that.

I'm not going to make a prediction this year, excpet to say that prices will keep going up until hitting the same unaffordability levels of 1989, then stagnate until there's some kind of economic shock.

But what that will be? Who knows. It's a shock, so can't be predicted.