Roll up. Make your housing market prediction here.

Reaper

Right, enough talk about why the market will go up/down. Time to make a prediction. That way you can remind me about it in the future and have a laugh at my expense - but only if you made a prediction yourself.

I PREDICT... house prices will fall 5% from their highs within the next 4 months and then stagnate (neither fall nor keep up with inflation) for the rest of 2005.

Go on, have a guess - but be specific. Let's see percentages and timescales.

deemy2004

Average house prices will be down from their peak by 15% by End of 2006. I'm probably under-estimatng the drop as many buyers at the peak will be in a state of  


 
    :o                                     :-*                          
      :o                               ;D
        :o                      
                           :)
                   :o          
                          ???
         Me buying   8)

I don't think the trend will be like the 90's i.e. a long period of sideways trend more down sharply, giving a battering to the markets psychology and then start trending up and KEEP trending up - THUS ! People won't think the markets bottomed, they'll probably be thinking its just a correction in a vicous bear market that at any moment is likely to again batter the hell out of them, so yeh, most people will miss the boat!

8)

clarkey_2

Interesting thread. Would say that it's a nearly impossible task. I personally don't think we'll see that much of a fall before may next year. After the election, Brown and Blair will deliver whatever pain needs to be delivered on pensions and the general well being of the economy.

After that it depends on Brown, Blair and King and whether or not we go back to this idea of a "soft landing".

Reaper

don't think we'll see that much of a fall

Nah, too vague. Go on, stick your neck out and put a % figure on it! In 6months/year I'll dig this thread out from the depths and see who came closest.

funkymonkey

i think the housing market will fall around 5% in december ( christmas to blame ) then will stay there until april

there are now very few first time buyers as they cant afford it and fewer sales overall - with lots of houses on the market and not many buyers prices should in theory drop.

after april i would love to see a 50% drop and thus meaning i can buy my little mid terraced two up two down with picket fence!

clarkey_2

Nah, too vague. Go on, stick your neck out and put a % figure on it! In 6months/year I'll dig this thread out from the depths and see who came closest.

Complete stab in the dark, 2% nationally (May 2005). a futher 8% (December 2005). a further 6% (December 2006) a futher 4% (December 2007).

mkdoodle

After the current autumnal pause, the average house price will continue its upward trend of 15-20 percent annual increases during 2005, possibly into 2006, topping 200K.

Then when the doomsayers have nothing left to say and all the up-to-their-neck-in-debt BTL people are congratulating themselves on their financial genius, that’s when the market will crash, by 80% in two years, all the way down to 40K.
The “bottom feeders” will rush in, as the price recovers to 60K. Just as they are congratulating themselves on their 50 percent profit, there will be another 80% crash, taking the price down to 10K.

Course it might not happen exactly that way, but it’s as likely as anybody else’s prediction.

diggingdaddy

For the next nine months property prices will decline, they will then rise for a few months as people jump in the conclusion that the decline is over. Then prices will start falling again for another six months or so hitting a new low. Revival will come again and yet again as prices decline to new lows. This unbreakable trend will continue for the next 5 to 8 years. By this time I predict the decline will be 65%. The whole thing will bottom out 2 years later at 80%. So my prediction is 80% decline in real terms from peak over the next ten years. The easy money and greed which has fuelled yet another classic bubble is coming to an end!

Well you asked for opinions! :P

Walletwatch

Goes up by 10% from today till end of April, from where the BoE again decides that enough is enough, and raises base rates from 5% (there will be one quarter point rise between now and April) to 6.5%.

At this point, the pound will exceed two dollars in value.

This will be followed by a reasonably dramatic crash (average house price will go down to £80k) and then stabilise there.

John_M_Business

The housing market in certain areas, where there is still a need for housing and/or prices have already cooled (like the South East/ London) will be flat for 2005. Other areas that have climbed rapidly in the last 12-24 months will bear the brunt of about a 10% fall.

My flat, however, will treble in value, bucking all rationale and/or market fluctuations.

dougk_2

My prediction is that prices will bounce up and down by 3 or 4% for he next 4 or 5 months or so before rising in the spring as we all get offered lots of promises by all the parties.... prices will then stay static for a few months , drop a couple of % over the winter and then start to climb by 5 to 10% per year from mid 2006.

Prices in certain areas may drop by 10% next year and others may rise by 10% - really on demand.

So overall prediction is no change on average for the next 18 months but increases in some area's (north and places with cheap houses) and drops in SE (where I live) and large city's.

Over next 10 years probably an overall increase in prices 30 to 50%.


BTW % terms are rubbish and unfair (like % pay rises) as it just makes the richer  even richer and the poorer even poorer!

A greater than 20% fall will only happen if wages fall or there is mass unemployment - in which case everyone is doomed and I shall emigrate!