Roll up. Make your housing market prediction here.

johannamse

I agree with DougK. Some pockets will dip and others fall, but the overall trend will continue to creep upwards. Watch out for all the hardworking hard saving non moaning immigrants who will keep buying. There is no/little chance of loosing your home if you buy it for the long term and don't imdulge in new cars and beer, when you don't have the money, and you work hard. Makes sense.

stuartlwilliams

10% increase in 2005. Is that clear enough?

Reaper

I should have mentioned that the figures I will be comparing your predictions to are those from the Land Registry. These take longer to arrive than building society figures but are widely regarded as the most accurate since they record actual sales, not mortgage approvals.

The latest figures have just come out showing the average house price in England and Wales (sorry, they don't seem to cover Scotland, let me know if you find equivilent figures for Scotland) was £182,920, down from £187,971 in July-September. That's a 2.69% drop for the trail end of the year.

Volumes were well down but so far prices have not suffered as much as many thought. Now lets see how our predictions fare in 2005...

Poppy9

I go for a 30% drop with a continued downtrend for the next 2 years. Then stagnant for a couple of years before up they go again. I am trying to remember what happened to my house in the early 90's. I remember it was valued at £55k (I had bought in 86 for £18k). Sat tight as the differential to move was too much. House prices dropped and I sold in 93/4 for £42k. Market was very flat with not much about to buy so didn't buy till 18 months later in 1995. I wouldn't have sold my house for anymore if I had stayed in it that 18 months. House prices locally stayed quite stagnant for a few years - then suddenly my new house price doubled in 2000. By 2004 my house had more than tripled in value yet the house I sold in 93/4 had only doubled in value. Conclusion - mmmh confusing but it obviously depends on type of house and area on rise/drop

rizla01

Oh Dear,

What a pessimistic bunch we are.

My prediction is that we will see none to little movement in the market till the General Elections.(Slight downward movement as sellers start to be a bit more realistic about values 1%-1.5%)

If the Chancellor, in his wisdom, does something about the Stamp Duty i.e. Makes Stamp Duty payable ONLY on the part that exceeds the threshold, then I would expect this to favour FTBs and they will start an upward trend in property prices as more sales are progressed. 5-7% overall in 2005 and continuing into 2006 with a natural slowdown of sales through the winter months but picking up again, traditionally in March and continuing at 5-7% PA.

No change by the Chancellor will probably result in 3% overall increase this year and will probably cause a rise in Bank rates (1%) which will stifle the market even more.

On the other hand if tony pushes forward legislation that forces the unemlpoyed bak into work there will be a lot of cheap labour and wages will not rise in line with inflation and THAT will affect property values.

A change of Government - now THERE'S speculation.

Without giving away my beliefs I reckon we will see a huge increase in Taxes to fund their strategies and that would result in a dramatic fall in property prices(10-15%) over the next two years rallying round in 2007.

Sorry my crystal ball has gone all cloudy now so that's your lot!

For what it's worth I shall continue to buy properties and improving their condition/value and selling them on again, for the forseeable future, undetered by the movements in the Market.

mparter

Well, all the magic 8 ball would say was yes, whatever that means. So I guess, sorry predict that prices will, on average rise 3-4% over the next 6 months.

I'm actually hoping they plummet by about 50% so I can get my first foot on the ladder

Poppy9

And herein lies the key to the outcome.

If FTB cannot get onto the property ladder then prices will have to drop. A drop in prices doesn't affect property owners too much so long as they didn't overstretch themselves when originally buying.

Reaper

The new Land Registry figures have been published so it is time for an update. This covers the period Jan - Mar 2005. Here they are along with the other figures so far:

Average completion prices of residential properties:
2004 Jul - Sep = £187,971
2004 Oct - Dec = £182,920 (a 2.69% drop from the last period)
2005 Jan - Mar = £183,486 (a 0.3% rise from the last period)

Remember these are actual completions, not just offers, so they are widely considered the most accurate.

It looks like prices have risen as usual in the Spring, but only just.

Volumes are well down on last year so the pessimists can point out a crash is still possible because the asking prices are unrealistic, but I remain comfortable with my original prediction of a 5% drop followed by stagnation.

deemy2004

Prices will drift sideways to lower for a another 3 months, then there will be a sharp break lower, say 5% over 3 months, probably triggered by bad economic news along go the lines of -

Rise in inflation .... Fall in the £ ... rise in interest rates

The fall in house prices will feedback into the economy depressing growth, jobs, consumption, and thus lead to further drops in house prices...

JanCee

Stagnation for the next 4 months then a 2.5% drop by the end of 2005.

Reaper when are you going to review this?