Roll up. Make your housing market prediction here.

meanmachine_2

Funny, I was thinking to myself it was time one of these indices showed a "surprise" rise. And voila: Halifax UP 1.2%

Darn it. Looks like I've "missed the boat" yet again. By the way, extrapolate that out and it's a rise of around 14% y-o-y. Er yeah right.

That's why the six properties in my rightmove folder have all dropped in price this month.

SO on the OECD index, that makes a 32% overvaluation a 33% overvaluation. Makes little difference to me. Couldn't afford anything yesterday, and still can't today.

tomstickland

No no no, prices aren't dropping, sellers are just having to be "realistic" in their asking prices. How that's different from lowering prices I don't know.

nelly_2

adr0ck wrote:

meanmachine

i take your point..........but where i am:

average house £120 -£130 k

average wage £20 -£22 k

so i guess its not as bad as national average

I also think this is a valid point:

"Some people compare the average monthly mortgage payment against take home pay as an alternative measure of affordability. We reckon it's probably a more valid measure too. At the moment it's around 30%, which is about the same as the historical average. On this basis, houses are fairly valued. In the late 1980s however, this figure rose to 60%. So you can see why house prices had such a torrid time in the early 1990s."

from motley fool

I just used the bbc mortgage calculator to work out the repayments on a £130 000 @5.5% for someone on £21 000 a year and it works out at over 45% of their wages.

I averaged you house price figuers and wage figuers.

But something just occured to me is'nt the £20/22 grand a year pre tax, so making actual available income quite a bit less?

deemy2004

It all hinges on the GDP figures, if they continue to slow towards and below 1% then likely the decline will feed upon itself i.e. a self fullfilling recession if the government can keep the growth stable at above 1.5% i.e. halt the decline then house prices will likely continue ticking along.

I think were overdue for a recession so only a matter of time.

Poppy9

Perhaps someone can help this MSE who can't sell their house

IN_LIKE_EVERYONE_ELSE!

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/pages/dmstandard/frame.html?in_bottom=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.thisismoney.co.uk%2Fretirement%2Farticle.html%3Fin_article_id%3D405513%26in_page_id%3D6%26ct%3D5

deemy2004

IN_LIKE_EVERYONE_ELSE! wrote:

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/pages/dmstandard/frame.html?in_bottom=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.thisismoney.co.uk%2Fretirement%2Farticle.html%3Fin_article_id%3D405513%26in_page_id%3D6%26ct%3D5

LOL.... :rotfl:

What Gorden realised was that he was goign to lose perhaps two bilion or more a year in tax revenues...

Would have been crazy ... to pay for 40% of a 2nd property for the rich... crazy...

zag2me

nelly wrote:

I just used the bbc mortgage calculator to work out the repayments on a £130 000 @5.5% for someone on £21 000 a year and it works out at over 45% of their wages.

I averaged you house price figuers and wage figuers.

But something just occured to me is'nt the £20/22 grand a year pre tax, so making actual available income quite a bit less?

Most people would be buying as a couple or with a friend, therefore halving the repayments. Its still tight, but certainly possible.

nelly_2

zag2me wrote:

Most people would be buying as a couple or with a friend, therefore halving the repayments. Its still tight, but certainly possible.

Yeah, tight or possible, I dont want.

Easily managable, so I can spend money on living life, I do want.

Reaper

The final land registry figures for 2005 have just been published. This brings to a close our little competition. Winners and losers will be in my next post as soon as I have finished trawling through all the predictions. Meanwhile here are all the figures to date:

Average price of a house in England & Wales:
2004 Jul - Sep = £187,971 (starting point)
2004 Oct - Dec = £182,920
2005 Jan - Mar = £183,486
2005 Apr - Jun = £184,924
2005 Jul - Sep = £194,589
2005 Oct - Dec = £191,327