Roll up. Make your housing market prediction here.

mystic_trev

Hope this helps Doozergirl

http://news.ft.com/cms/s/fac2e51a-3667-11da-bedc-00000e2511c8.html

Woby_Tide

right so that's the Halifax, Nationwide, Land Registry and the FT all incorrectly suggesting that house prices have inflated in price in the last 12 months. Anyone got any accurate indices instead? Someone must have

(or failing that how about some eyewitness reports of whats happening to certain properties in their street that are evidently indicative of the national market?)

Reaper

The latest land registry figures have just been published. As mentioned before I am using land registry figures because they are widely accepted as the most accurate. They are actual completed sales rather than applications for mortgages. Here are all the figures to date since I started the thread:

Average price of a house in England & Wales:
2004 Jul - Sep = £187,971 (starting point)
2004 Oct - Dec = £182,920
2005 Jan - Mar = £183,486
2005 Apr - Jun = £184,924
2005 Jul - Sep = £194,589

Which by my calculations is +3.52% from our start point up until today.

I will close the competition when the year's end figures are in and announce the winners. Those who predicted a big crash at the start are running out of time!

mr218

I know i am veering away from the topic of discussion slightly. but where do all the people who do not buy because they are expecting or hoping for a fall live. do you all live in the type of accomodation you are looking to buy. or are you scrimping on your living quarters now in order to save money for buying the house.

My question is essentially, how has the rental market changed due to this slowdown/stagnation in the market. are there any figures available. i am not really looking into new build houses which are now in abundance in some cities, but more at a older houses and properties.

meanmachine_2

I hope the winner gets a new home as their prize.

Although, if it's a "luxury" new build in a tower block, I'll pass thanks.

Reaper

The winner doesn't need a prize because with their forecasting skills they must have made a mint by now anyway.

That and the fact I'm way too tight.

GreenB_2

"My question is essentially, how has the rental market changed due to this slowdown/stagnation in the market"

My experience shows that in some areas (East Anglia for example) rental prices have increased over the last year (along with the 3.0% increase in house prices).

So maybe the question is with an average house rising in price by 7k and rental prices increasing by maybe up to £500 per year , the ftb now is 7.5k "worse" off than a year ago for sitting around and waiting for a crash that hasn't happened.

mystic_trev

When the House price crash comes (and it's when not if IMVHO) It'll be a short sharp shock followed by a longer period of stagnating prices. Let's face it if House prices can go up nearly 20% in a year what's to stop them dropping by that amount? As I've stated before - House prices are 40% above the long term trend, a correction is long overdue.

IN_LIKE_EVERYONE_ELSE!

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/4444958.stm

That'll be a problem then.

canny_yorkshireman_2

well I have just read all the posts on this very amusing subject but am startled that no one has linked a crash to the high levels of debt that now seem to be normal in the uk today. I think this will be the catalist that brings a correction in the market with the levels of un-employment rising month on month it is now only a matter of time when we all realise that the great housing boom was a distent memory I cnnot qualify for the prediction as have recently joined the site but will say that prices will continue to drop for at least 5 years untill the ratio reverts back to 3.5 salary for a modest abode