Roll up. Make your housing market prediction here.

GDB2222

IN_LIKE_EVERYONE_ELSE! wrote:

Have a look at this

http://observer.guardian.co.uk/business/story/0,6903,1577521,00.html

That's depressing!

Doozergirl

He says he's a natural optimist? Good God. This makes me fear for my children.

Bestthingsinlifearefree

Interesting to see that at the start of this thread the end of 2004 the doom and gloomers were predicitng big price drops.

The reality in 2005 turned out to be price stability / stagnation (see Land Reg figures and average prices actually went UP Q2 2005 over Q1 2005)

Below are the latest official Land Registry figures which show the real prices house sold for:

Average house price Eng and Wales https://www.landregistry.co.uk (ie what price houses actually sold for).

Q1 2004 WAS £166,404

Q1 2005 WAS £183,486
Q2 2005 IS £184,924

As you can see average prices went up slightly in Q2 2005 over Q1 2005 but in the main are stable.

Now as we go into 2006 no doubt all the doom and gloomers who got their predicitions so wrong this time last year will again be make wild predictions about house price falls again (while conveniently forgetting that all their past doom and gloom predictions were proved totally wrong)

The reality with low unemployement, low interest rates,massive pent up demand, increased immigration, a economy still growing, it is virtually inevitable that prices will remain stable / stagnating in 2006 / 2007 or even edge upwards slightly.

Looks like the house price crash never happened in 2004 or 2005 and has been permanently cancelled.

My advice ignore the doom and gloomers its business as usual in the housing market.

mystic_trev

The Housing market is long overdue for a correction, although I don't think it will be as sharp or as long as the last one. I wouldn't be surprised (however)if prices dropped by 20% in the next couple of years, but this is really no big deal unless you've become a FTB in the last couple of years. Remember a Home is a Home - It's not an investment unless you're downsizing.

meanmachine_2

Bestthingsinlifearefree is quite clearly a machine, spamming this site with their one post over and over.

I just hope they'll spam the same info in 3 months' time when the LR figures reflect what Hometrack et al are reporting.

Any chance of that do you think?

Otherwise, maybe bestthings would like to compensate me for loss of my lifesavings should I buy a property now and it loses 10% of its value in a year, which is quite likely.

Is that a deal?

Bestthingsinlifearefree

Hi Meanmachine,

Judging from the from your posts you seem like a nervous renter who wants absolute guarantees in the market.

If you are worried about buying and what if prices fall. Then you are not ready to buy. But I bet you were worried about that scenario end of 2004 and you will still probablystill be worried about that scenario end of 2006 /2007.

If you buy and prices go up can I have the profit you make ?

Sorry son no one can "guarantee" you prices won't fall whether you buy in 2000 or 2005 or 2010.

You seem annoyed that I post the factual Land Register figures showing average prices actually went UP in 2005 Q2 over Q1 2005. When Q3 2005 Land Reg figures come out this month I expect prices will be stable again.

The fact is the doom and gloomers who predicted a house price crash in 2005 got it totally wrong and should have the humility to acknowledge this. I expect the doom and gloom predictions for 2006 will be wrong to.

The fact you are so worried about house prices clearly means you are not ready to buy a house mean machine, you are probably best paying off your land lords mortgage for a few more years while you "wait and see".

The fact as a renter you are desperate for a house price crash does not mean it will happen mean machine just to help you out.

Read the Land Registry figures (below)again Meanmachine. Spot the price stability in 2005 :rotfl:

All the doom and gloomers who wrongly predicted a house price crash in 2005 we look forward to your humble apologies. :rotfl:


Average house price Eng and Wales https://www.landregistry.co.uk (ie what price houses actually sold for).

Q1 2004 WAS £166,404

Q1 2005 WAS £183,486
Q2 2005 IS £184,924

As you can see average prices went up slightly in Q2 2005 over Q1 2005 but in the main are stable.

FaTB

Hmmm, these figures don't really reflect that some places may still be rising, but certainly in London prices have already dropped significantly, "the old ripple effect"

Sales volumes have dropped dramatically, and it also ignores the fact that House price inflation has dropped from 20% ish to 2 % ish in one year !!

Will it suddenly just flatten out now ? I doubt it.

Something is seriously up with the housing market at present, sentiment has changed, and I can't see it changing back again for a long time.

Woby_Tide

FaTB wrote:

Hmmm, these figures don't really reflect that some places may still be rising, but certainly in London prices have already dropped significantly, "the old ripple effect"

Sales volumes have dropped dramatically, and it also ignores the fact that House price inflation has dropped from 20% ish to 2 % ish in one year !!

Erm those figures reflect entirely that some places are still rising, that's why it's a positive percentage figure. (If you read the landregistry reports they also claimthat Greater London prices as a whole were still rising over the period in question(no doubt with variations throughout the area)

Also it doesn't ignore the fact that house price inflation has dropped, but seeing as you can evidently make these conclusions without bothering to read the reports 'Bestthings' has been quoting maybe it's not worth going to any trouble to explain.

mystic_trev

Neither Nationwide or Halifax are particulary accurate due to one having a South bias and the other a North bias. I'm waiting to see what the FT House price index comes out with in the next few of days - that should give a more accurate assessment of what's happening in the market.

Doozergirl

Surely that North/South divide doesn't exist any more? How can they be the biggest mortgage lenders if they have a bias compared to other 'National' lenders?