House Prices to rise by 25%

m00m00

there may be micro tinkering of rates, but LTV and Multipliers are far far lower than they were 12 months ago

along with the almost complete death of lie to buy, and 100%+ mortgages, this will have a massive impact.

Premier_2

carolt wrote: »

So what do you think, Premier? Do you expect the UK economy to continue robust, allowing for large house price rises, any time soon?

All recent polls I have read suggest the vast majority (c. 70-90%) on polls I've seen recently, expect recession imminently.

Personally, I think a return to recent price highs within 5 years highly unlikely, let alone rises of 25% over peak.

But what do you think? Do you actually agree with the article you posted?

I have no reason to disagree with the article as researched and written. Do you not agree with it? Why not? Is there any independant research to back up your reasons?

moneysavinmonkey

the report is based only upon housing demand + supply.

Affordability + availability of credit + sentiment is not factored into their conclusion.

If you can show me the research that proves these have no influence on house prices then the report conclusion would have some credibility.

ruggedtoast

Premier wrote: »

If you keep looking to buy at the bottom of the market, you'll find you've more than often missed the boat. How do you know where the bottom of the market was unless prices have already increased?

If you are expecting another credit explosion capable of reinflating prices to last years levels, let alone beyond, is going to come along within the next 4 years I am afraid you are going to be very disappointed.

Capital outflows are only just beginning to be felt, western global financing is crippled and without stoking hyperinflation the BOJ, FED, ECB and BOE are unable to do anything other than try and keep the heat down and insolvent finance houses trading.

A year from now house price inflation is going to be the last thing anyones worried about.

Premier_2

m00m00 wrote: »

there may be micro tinkering of rates, but LTV and Multipliers are far far lower than they were 12 months ago

along with the almost complete death of lie to buy, and 100%+ mortgages, this will have a massive impact.

I think the lack of 100%+ mortgages is a very good thing. If people can't save up for a deposit they probably shouldn't be buying. Most of us on the housing ladder had to save for a deposit when we bought. Do you think it was wise for people to borrow more than the value of the property they were buying?


Complete death of self cert?

self cert mortgages are still being offered by the following lenders:

Chelsea BS
Standard Life Bank
Bristol & West
Coventry BS
Manxchester BS

...possibly more. Upto 75% LTV by some (which is extremely generous on such schemes)

m00m00

'almost' complete death

not absolute.

just because a few places are still doing them at 75% ltv

is a completely different fiscal world to the situation before the credit crunch

why do you think i assume the removal of 100% mortgages is a bad thing, just because I've stated it's happened. I've long been an advocate of a more sensible relationship between earnings and house prices.

Debt_Free_Chick

As ever, I think the key words are "on average". So there will be gains of more than x% and gains of less than x% - losses even.

Things seem to be very, very local in my experience. In my area, houses are selling; some are selling fast; some seem to be getting very close to the asking price, but I only have the sellers' and/or agents word for that

In desirable rural areas, desirable properties will continue to sell - as I know to my cost, trying to buy locally (NOT FTB and with an LTV of about 60% in the £350-£400k mark).

It ain't all as it might appear to be. It certainly ain't "on average" around here!

m00m00

there is no 'average' or national housing market

it's many 100,000s of loosely connected micromarkets, in some cases as small as one street.

Premier_2

moneysavinmonkey wrote: »

the report is based only upon housing demand + supply.

Affordability + availability of credit + sentiment is not factored into their conclusion.

If you can show me the research that proves these have no influence on house prices then the report conclusion would have some credibility.

What is the main influence in a free market. That's right supply & demand!

Where does affordability & availability of credit come into the rising price of oil/gas/electricity recently?


So is this another thread where you appreciate what I write, consider my posts to be "well balanced" and "value the advice given" to other posters?

http://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/showthread.html?t=1053703

You know, there's a word that describes someone who just posts for the sake of causing an arguement!

Premier_2

m00m00 wrote: »

there is no 'average' or national housing market

it's many 100,000s of loosely connected micromarkets, in some cases as small as one street.

Speak to moneysavinmonkey - all will be explained

http://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/showpost.html?p=12851433&postcount=25