House Prices to rise by 25%

neverdespairgirl

Premier wrote: »

Where does it say that please? Nothing in the link I posted.

Here's the actual report
http://www.housing.org.uk/Uploads/File/HomeTruths/home_truths_2008.pdf

Nothing there either about the size of price falls in 2008 as far as I can see.

I was looking at the BBC website,
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7528248.stm

byrneand

Premier wrote: »

According to Nationwide, house prices grew on average by 256.65% over the past 20 years - that equates to over 5% pa (compounded) and obviously includes the crash period of the early 1990's

I've just had a look on:

http://www.quotesearch.co.uk/news/578/uk-house-prices-tracked-since-1970/

this seems to suggest a CAGR of 3.75% which would give a 5 year price rise of 20.2%.

Depending on the exact statistics that you use you could come up with figure anywhere between -5-10% (if you took the last 6 months as being the norm) or +10-20% if you took 2000-2004. But I think something over 20-30 years is fairly representative that shows on the whole house prices increase.

What I'm trying to point out is that I think people should stop being so dramatic and extremist. Every cycle has up's and downs!

melancholly

just read the article on the bbc website and knew it would go down a storm on here!

Dithering_Dad

I must admit that I raised an eyebrow when I saw this on the BBC website, but when you consider that the UK population still hasn't lost its love affair with Houses, we ae all living longer, the population is increasing, more couples are splitting up, you can understand how there will be a big rise once people think the bottom of the market has been reached.

Everyone, FTBers, HPCers and even my peer group (home owners waiting out the crash to move up the ladder cheaply) are all sat waiting for the market to bottom out before they buy a house. As soon as the press start talking about growth there will be a mad rush to buy.

Even the most rabid HPCers on this website are desperate to own their own homes, can anyone really say that they won't rush in once they think the market has bottomed and is going back up? They missed out on one boom, they won't want to do it again.

lethal0r

oops it made nope.com into a link!

banks have lost billions through lax lending. think theyre gonna do exactly the same in only 5 years time? of course not. so how are prices going to go so high so soon? who is going to be able to save up that much money? not many. pay that much mortgage required a month? not many.

ruggedtoast

The world must be a very confusing place if youre an Express reader. One moment youre riding high on a £500k lie to buy 125 percenter from northern rock thats funded the purchase of a couple of Inside Track hovels in Margate and Magaluf and you have all the caravanning holidays you could ask for with matching Maddie and Diana cushion covers.

And the next minute its all gone to pot, your repayments are through the roof, youre hovels are defying gravity and going down in price and even Bid-TV is telling you to stop calling them.

Its lucky they have "The Greatest Newspaper In The World" to comfort them.

QWERTY555

The banks made billions and billions of profit in last 10 years,. In fact record profits year on year. They will take it on the chin. Saves tax as well. In fact it is in the banks interest to overstate bad debts and make provisions for them.

I worked in a bad dents team in the last downturn and the bad debt provisions we made were crazy. I fact many many loans were fully written off only to paid in full or very close to 100%. Banks make profit from debt right offs.

The banks cannot hold off from lending for long, and as soon as borrowing starts again house prices will rise, it is a simple as that.

melancholly

ruggedtoast wrote: »

The world must be a very confusing place if youre an Express reader. One moment youre riding high on a £500k lie to buy 125 percenter from mortgage rock thats funded the purchase of a couple of Inside Track hovels in Margate and Magaluf and you have all the caravanning holidays you could ask for with matching Maddie and Diana cushion covers.

And the next minute its all gone to pot, your repayments are through the roof, youre hovels are defying gravity and going down in price and even Bid-TV is telling you to stop calling them.

Its lucky they have "The Greatest Newspaper In The World" to comfort them.

i posted this in the arms last week - i'm guessing you'll like it
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xo0drBdU6lM&feature=related

moneysavinmonkey

there is a big 'IF' in that report...

if you take the headling in context it should read

Housing Federation says if the economic outlook improves house prices will rise by 25% in 5 years.

I would agree with that, in fact it's probably quite conservative.... highly unlikely the economic outlook is going to improve shortly though is it!!

byrneand

Inter-bank lending rates are back to where we were in July 07. You can see that banks are getting more comfortable with their balance sheets and have reduced their exposure to more appropriate risk profiles. You can see by the return of large cap M&A that banks recognise that opportunities are still there and that they will need to re-enter the market in order to rebuild margins.

I'm confident that you will see significantly more affordable products on the market in 12 months time and that you will see the return of significant liquidity and capital to the sector on a three year view.

This is my opinion having analysed a number of markets be they credit, equities, property or commodities. I don't have specific facts but I'm sure if I really wanted to i could find some spurious facts to back up my point.

I think if your invested in more than one property and your looking to sell in the next 24 months for retirement etc... or if your a FTB, then you need to think about it seriously. If you have a home that you live in and are comfortable with the mortgage then I wouldn't be worrying too much. Being realistic your not going to sel lyour house suddenly because houses are starting to fall. Equally any hous eyour looking at moving up to will be cheaper as well.

Can we have a little less panic and drama please.