House Prices to rise by 25%

Premier_2

moneysavinmonkey wrote: »

there is a big 'IF' in that report...

if you take the headling in context it should read

Housing Federation says if the economic outlook improves house prices will rise by 25% in 5 years.

I would agree with that, in fact it's probably quite conservative.... highly unlikely the economic outlook is going to improve shortly though is it!!

No there isn't

Perhaps that's what you think it should read like but what it actually says is:

If the employment market remains reasonably robust, it will
provide an important base for the housing market....

If we experience the wider economic downturn many predict,
with large increases in unemployment and falls in consumer
spending, the housing market could face a more severe slump.

As things stand, OE expects continuing rapid population growth and
shortfalls in housing supply to come back to the fore by 2011/2012,
ratcheting up house prices and worsening affordability.

http://www.housing.org.uk/Uploads/File/HomeTruths/home_truths_2008.pdf

moneysavinmonkey

If we experience the wider economic downturn many predict,
with large increases in unemployment and falls in consumer
spending, the housing market could face a more severe slump.

so the current economic outlook is for a downturn...
in which cases house prices will slump severely....
an improvement in the economic outlook is needed for house prices to rise...

also from the BBC:

"As soon as the economic outlook improves, house prices will resume their previous upward trajectory," said the Federation's chief executive David Orr.

fairly clear to me.

ruggedtoast

Im pretty sure the NHF came up with that report a year ago that said a house would cost 10 zillion pounds by 2015. AFAIK they are a VI housing association type group who's continuing existence depends on the government continuing to pump money into shared ownership schemes and pointless PFI housing association contracts.

Of course local councils used to do all this with their own housing stock for peanuts without pricing out first time buyers but then again that doesnt make any lovely lolly for Gordons chums in the square mile.

Premier_2

moneysavinmonkey wrote: »

so the current economic outlook is for a downturn...
in which cases house prices will slump severely....
an improvement in the economic outlook is needed for house prices to rise...



also from the BBC:



fairly clear to me.

So you think there's going to a huge upturn in the number of unemployed soon, leading to a widescale slowdown in consumer spending and recession?

The economic upturn is needed to increase house prices, but it's not a case of 'if', it's a case of 'when' ... and that 'when' is forecast to be in 18 months time.

moneysavinmonkey

Premier wrote: »

So you think there's going to a huge upturn in the number of unemployed soon, leading to a widescale slowdown in consumer spending and recession?

actually i think it will be the otherway around as in.. slowdown in consumer spending = recession + unemployment.

The economic upturn is needed to increase house prices, but it's not a case of 'if', it's a case of 'when' ... and that 'when' is forecast to be in 18 months time.

I don't think the economic outlook will improve within 18 months.. perhaps that's not a mainstream view? Just have to wait and see. If in 18 months things are looking all rosy again, I'll be extremely happy and may even buy my first home. I'm not that optimistic that things will be that easy though.

m00m00

it is not merely an increase in consumer spending and an economic upturn that is needed. It needs the banks to return to the lax lending criteria and insane money they were throwing about, something which is rather less likely to happen than the bulls wish.

Premier_2

moneysavinmonkey wrote: »

I don't think the economic outlook will improve within 18 months.. perhaps that's not a mainstream view? Just have to wait and see. If in 18 months things are looking all rosy again, I'll be extremely happy and may even buy my first home. I'm not that optimistic that things will be that easy though.

If you keep looking to buy at the bottom of the market, you'll find you've more than often missed the boat. How do you know where the bottom of the market was unless prices have already increased?

carolt

Premier wrote: »

So you think there's going to a huge upturn in the number of unemployed soon, leading to a widescale slowdown in consumer spending and recession?

The economic upturn is needed to increase house prices, but it's not a case of 'if', it's a case of 'when' ... and that 'when' is forecast to be in 18 months time.

So what do you think, Premier? Do you expect the UK economy to continue robust, allowing for large house price rises, any time soon?

All recent polls I have read suggest the vast majority (c. 70-90%) on polls I've seen recently, expect recession imminently.

Personally, I think a return to recent price highs within 5 years highly unlikely, let alone rises of 25% over peak.

But what do you think? Do you actually agree with the article you posted?

Premier_2

m00m00 wrote: »

it is not merely an increase in consumer spending and an economic upturn that is needed. It needs the banks to return to the lax lending criteria and insane money they were throwing about, something which is rather less likely to happen than the bulls wish.

It's already started

Halifax signals mortage market upturn with interest rate cut

It is the second time in a fortnight that Halifax has changed its rates and follows similar moves by other major lenders, such as Abbey, Nationwide and Cheltenham & Gloucester....

...experts say June may have been the peak and that those looking for a new deal may see better deals being released in the months ahead.

moneysavinmonkey

Premier wrote: »

If you keep looking to buy at the bottom of the market, you'll find you've more than often missed the boat. How do you know where the bottom of the market was unless prices have already increased?

I'd prefer to miss the bottom actually, as once the market confidence is back i would assume that mortgage deals would improve too. At the moment although the headline rates are coming down, the small print contains huge arrangement fees + HLC etc

(BTW your second link is dead)