Any guesses on where we will be in 2010

**Amy**

I know its a random question! And hard to give any kind of answers as it so far away, however I am a First Time Buyer but I am paying off my debts and saving a deposit so it wont be until 2010 when i can realistically start looking at purchasing a property.

Any ideas on where the economy or housing market will be then?

(tell me to bog off and stop being so silly at trying to predict the future if you want :rotfl: )

x

WTF?_2

**Amy** wrote: »

I know its a random question! And hard to give any kind of answers as it so far away, however I am a First Time Buyer but I am paying off my debts and saving a deposit so it wont be until 2010 when i can realistically start looking at purchasing a property.

Any ideas on where the economy or housing market will be then?

(tell me to bog off and stop being so silly at trying to predict the future if you want :rotfl: )

x

I think the housing market will be a lot closer to the bottom (certainly by the end of 2010 anyway) but that it will scrape along for a few years after that, possibly decling slightly year on year even after big falls in 2008/9/10. So no rush to buy.

Unfortunately, the economy will be absolutely trashed so don't count on feeling willing to buy - which of course is why the market will scrape along for years. It'll take economic recovery to drag the market out its doldrums.

Doesn't sound great but remember you are making good progress on paying your debts and saving a deposit, unlike many people who are up to their eyeballs in debt and don't even have the wit to see what's coming down the line. Just keep doing what you're doing and you'll be ahead of most of the wider public.

beingjdc

If you go to www.spreadfair.com (there are other places but you need passwords for them) and look at 'house prices', you will see what people who have put their money where their mouth is are predicting for the next three years. They may also be wrong, but presumably have more credibility than people who are just typing into the void.

baby_boomer

beingjdc wrote: »

If you go to www.spreadfair.com (there are other places but you need passwords for them) and look at 'house prices', you will see what people who have put their money where their mouth is are predicting for the next three years. They may also be wrong, but presumably have more credibility than people who are just typing into the void.

Not necessarily. Some may just be buy-to-letters using this mechanism as a hedge / insurance.

beingjdc

baby_boomer wrote: »

Not necessarily. Some may just be buy-to-letters using this mechanism as a hedge / insurance.

Yes, some will be buy-to-letters using it as a hedge, otherwise will be sell-to-renters using it as a hedge. Somewhere in the middle, the market clears.

Generali

beingjdc wrote: »

Yes, some will be buy-to-letters using it as a hedge, otherwise will be sell-to-renters using it as a hedge. Somewhere in the middle, the market clears.

What do you reckon the ratio of BTL:STR is? 10:1? More? STR as a speculative punt only seems to go on on Forums; not in the real world.

beingjdc

Generali wrote: »

What do you reckon the ratio of BTL:STR is? 10:1? More? STR as a speculative punt only seems to go on on Forums; not in the real world.

Yes, I reckon there's quite a high ratio. However there seems to be far more self-delusion amongst BTLers, I think a lot of them will say "I don't need to hedge, I'm in it for the long-term".

Certainly when a market is trading at 25% discount to current prices, it's not very tempting to hedge - prices could fall 20% and you would lose on your portfolio and lose on your hedge.

Whereas for the STR it has to be appealing - you're locking in a 25% gain on your gamble no matter what really happens.

MyOpinion

There may not be many STRs in the real world but I know a lot of potential first time buyers who are in a position that they could buy but are sitting it out, so in effect STR.

WTF?_2

MyOpinion wrote: »

There may not be many STRs in the real world but I know a lot of potential first time buyers who are in a position that they could buy but are sitting it out, so in effect STR.

Yep - it's more difficult to speculate with STR because unless you're young and single (and how many young-ish single people actually own their own place these days) you need to get your partner on board too. If you have kids, then you can pretty much forget it. If you're older and settled then you are also unlikely to want to give up your nice house even if you stand to benefit financially. So there are a lot of factors working against people STRing.

People who could buy but choose not to (like me for example) are essentially doing the same as an STR person. Of course, we're not seeing the benefits of actualising our equity like an STR would but we were taking the risk that prices would run away from us and we'd never get on the housing ladder :rotfl:

Oh, how quaint that sounds these days! Yet less than a year ago the house price inflation cheerleaders on MSE were trotting that line out to those of us warning of the impending crash :rotfl:Where are they now, aside from a few people who are obviously fishing with trollbait they have gone very very quiet indeed.......

fc123

Generali wrote: »

What do you reckon the ratio of BTL:STR is? 10:1? More? STR as a speculative punt only seems to go on on Forums; not in the real world.

Excl delaying FTBers as STRers, I would guess it would be more like BTL 10,000 ; STR 1.
STR isn't a mainstream concept and is pretty inconvenient for the majority.
Accidental STR is different.
Oh my, I would have loved to STR...but wrong timing. Never mind.
Now I RTR (rent to rent?). Can't work out if any gain....just more hassle.

LisbonLaura

OK Rob, got it....

Ahem..... 2010 --- the UK is leading the world with its wondrous new technological miracles which are made in huge non-polluting factories that can pay the army of workers £1000/week & still make huge profits.
Retirement on vast pensions at age 55 is guaranteed for all as there is full employment.
Youth crime is dealt with by public caning. It took a month for crime figs to drop to almost zero (only a few weirdos were disappointed)
Adult crime has become almost non-existent too since the deal with Singapore to send all miscreants there; & their ordeals shown on TV.
Profiteering from more than one house is now illegal. Land is now state owned & controlled.
Every Britain was given a Spanish apartment for free. Their govt being grateful just for the annual property tax revenue on their otherwise worthless concrete piles.
Daily worship of President Balls is mandatory.
(Laura has still not returned to the UK)