Who will win the UK election ?

Out,_Vile_Jelly wrote: »

but am finding this campaign tedious in the extreme.

Don't worry only 24 days left :eek:

More than enough time to get the NHS £ 500 Billion guaranteed, a guarantee of one teacher per child, 75 new trident subs, a tax free threshold of £50,001 and promises to abolish just about everything.

Moby wrote: »

... Also forgotten that in 2010 Labour had it's worst ever electoral result with a vote share down to about 29% and still the Tories couldn't win outright. Cameron failed to force the electoral boundary changes through so Labour start with an advantage due to this. .....

Not that much of an advantage.:)

The two big drivers behind the electoral bias in favour of Labour in 2010 were (a) Scotland and (b) the Lib Dems.

Peter Kellner (of YouGov fame) has carried out his own analysis of the effect of a collapse in the Lib Dem vote share to 8% (which is around about where they currently are in the polls) and concluded that, as a result, the "geographical bias in Labour’s favour largely disappears".

https://yougov.co.uk/news/2014/06/16/how-lib-dem-prospects-affect-arithmetic-ve-day/

And of course, if the polls are to be believed. Labour face the prospect of an almost total electoral wipeout in Scotland, thereby removing that little advantage.

Moby wrote: »

... This means the Tories need to be polling around 37%, (with a gap of at least 6%) with Labour, to stand a chance. ...

That conclusion is no longer tenable. The post referendum collapse of the Labour vote in Scotland, combined with the all-nation collapse in the Lib Dem vote, are both game changers.

The Milibean's 35% strategy will no longer deliver a working majority. That is why this election is to close to call.

antrobus wrote: »

Not that much of an advantage.:)

The two big drivers behind the electoral bias in favour of Labour in 2010 were (a) Scotland and (b) the Lib Dems.

Peter Kellner (of YouGov fame) has carried out his own analysis of the effect of a collapse in the Lib Dem vote share to 8% (which is around about where they currently are in the polls) and concluded that, as a result, the "geographical bias in Labour’s favour largely disappears".

https://yougov.co.uk/news/2014/06/16/how-lib-dem-prospects-affect-arithmetic-ve-day/

And of course, if the polls are to be believed. Labour face the prospect of an almost total electoral wipeout in Scotland, thereby removing that little advantage.



That conclusion is no longer tenable. The post referendum collapse of the Labour vote in Scotland, combined with the all-nation collapse in the Lib Dem vote, are both game changers.

The Milibean's 35% strategy will no longer deliver a working majority. That is why this election is to close to call.

Against that isn't it the case that if the Tory vote is being split by UKIP then they could lose a lot of marginals to labour without Labour actualyl icnreasing their vote at all?

michaels wrote: »

Against that isn't it the case that if the Tory vote is being split by UKIP then they could lose a lot of marginals to labour without Labour actualyl icnreasing their vote at all?

Kellner's analysis was based on a UKIP vote share of 10%, so I would presume that he took that into account.

Most of the election prediction models out there are producing results that show Labour well short of a majority, even though under ye olde UNS models would show them scraping a majority with a mere 1% lead.

michaels wrote: »

Incidentally a lot of the polling company models include a prediction that as voting day approaches voters who have flirted with protest parties such as UKIP and Greens will return to their 'usual' big 3 party where usual is based on the 2010 result. My feeling is that 2010 does not reflect 'usual' when it comes to the Labour vote share and so there will be more 'drift back' to Labour than the pollsters are currently factoring in.

Given that you think that the "Tory vote is being split by UKIP" and that there (a) more potential UKIP voters than Green ones and (b) that many of the potential Green ones are ex Lib Dem, why would a "return to their 'usual' big 3 party" favour Labour?