The 2014 HAMISH MCTAVISH Predictions Thread

Well, 2014 turned out to be a pretty good year, and the predictions weren't far off the mark.

As follows:

Broadly a year of stronger economic recovery.

1. House prices will rise. Indices will range from +6 to +11

Yep, pretty much on the money.

2. FTB numbers will increase as HTB continues to enable more people to buy, and the wider lending markets continue to recover.

Also on the money.

Up 12% year on year at last available CML figures.

3. Inflation will remain in a range between 1.5% and 2.5% for most of the year.

Well CPI is now down to 1%, but has been in that range for most of the year.

4. Unemployment will fall to around 7%

Nope.

Now down to a better than expected 6%.

5. Interest rates will end the year at or below 1%

Yep.

6. Mortgage lending for new purchases will increase markedly and average around 70k per month for the year

Nope.... They did cross 70K per month, but have fallen back into the 60K range since.

7. Rents will continue to increase at a similar rate to 2013 and reach another new record high

Yes to both.

8. The north will see increasing HPI as the gap to London/SE starts to close

Also yes.... London has softened, and the north has seen some good growth this year.

9. Scotland will vote to remain in the UK, but it will be closer than the polls currently suggest thanks to a misguided blossoming of nationalism around the Commonwealth games

Polls closed markedly between the games and the referendum.

It was also closer than the olls at the start of the year suggested, at 55/44.

10. Economic recovery will strengthen with GDP +3.5% for the year

That one looks to be bang on, but we'll need to wait for Q4 results.

11. Politics: The Lib Dems will start to distance themselves from the Tories politically, The tories will pander to the right to try and prevent a UKIP resurgence, UKIP will do well at the Euro elections and then their 'protest vote' support will fade rapidly by year end as minds are focused on the real election that matters. As the economy recovers the gap between tories and labour will narrow.

Conditional yes to all of the above.

UKIP support is fading, down to 13% in the latest poll from much higher levels at the Euro elections.

Lib Dems have voted with Labour to defeat the govt for the first time.

Tories are leaning ever to the right to head of the kippers.

Labour and tories now neck and neck.

12. Average wages will increase by more than they did this year

Yep. Now 1.6%

13. Private sector wage rises will match CPI by year end

Wage growth now above CPI.

And as outliers.....

14. London HPI and the wider lending market may become strong enough to warrant removing or tactically reducing HTB2 limits for London/SE, perhaps reducing the upper limit to 300K instead of 600K.

15. The Lib Dem/Tory coalition may become so strained by Conservative back bench panic at UKIP's results in the Euro elections that it becomes effectively unworkable before the scheduled end of the full term

Nope.

But they were outliers....:)

michaels wrote: »

Pretty good Mr McT...and who would have predicted that you would be too bearish on both employment and inflation (this assumes that inflation this low is a good thing).

Funnily enough, the more bearish posters like to have a go, but most of my prediction threads have generally erred to the bearish side rather than bullish.

I guess perhaps your prediction not including oil at less than 60 may have something to do with that....

Yep, didn't even consider oil in this thread, but did bang on about an upcoming oil glut during the referendum campaign in the summer when it was clearer that was becoming likely.

Hey ho.

The 2015 thread may be more interesting.