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Debate House Prices
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Flaming Bears
Comments
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Most "bulls" aren't bulls, as a rule we're fairly moderate in what we believe. There is certainly a lot less baiting of bears by the "bulls" than there is of anyone judged by those on the bearish side to be in the enemy camp, you can see that (already) on this thread. That's because in many respects the bear side argument is one almost of religious faith.
For every example you can find me of a "bull" baiting a bear, I can find another in the opposite sense. That's the nature of debate really, it's part of the game.
From what I can guage. We're all headless chickens. For all the puffing out of chests. Who is actually trading in the property market? Hardly anyone. I've yet to read one post where someone has taken a decisive decision. Either to liquidate their positions or buy further investment property.
I guess that we are in a state of limbo. In the main due to the stance of the incumbrent Government. Who appear more interest in tinkering around the edges. Than making some really tough choices on our behalf.
No amount of historical trend analysis, 1950's to 1990's loan to income ratios, median wages, hpi since the 1700's is going to pacify me. The problems in the financial services sector in 2003 to 2008. Haven't been resolved yet. This issue is a problem those impact hasn't been quantified. For good reason. That the resolution is going to be bloody and scar the landscape for a decade.
When blood is drawn. I'll then be switching sides just as the bulls turn to bears. :rolleyes:0 -
HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »What a load of rubbish.
The bulls wish prosperity, full employment, economic growth, and financial success for everyone.
The bears wish recessions, asset price crashes, negative equity and unemployment on everyone else, so they can pick up a bargain.
Bears are contemptible creatures. Utterly despicable.
Communism failed as an ideology thank goodness.0 -
I do not have clue which way the economy is heading, so im not sure what camp I fall into, but If you were to ask me what I would like to see happen it would be a recovery to stop people slipping into poverty or my friends etc losing jobs
You obviously understand the irony of your post, in that sharp economic rises will cause bubbles, which have a nasty habit of going 'pop' and the fall out may be, just possibly, that people slip in to poverty and your friends might lose their jobs.
Just because people on here don't cheer HPI and easy lending to everyone it doesn't mean that they also celebrate people losing jobs and and economic strife. Some oddballs do of course, but they are in a minority methinks.
I have no opinion by the way, I just take the p*ss out of everyone to cover my lack of knowledge on any subject.0 -
Graham_Devon wrote: »Good lord. What complete rubbish.
You really seem to believe you are the "moderate, in the middle" poster. You insist you are not a bull. Yet you come out with that absolute rubbish and talk about Hamish exploring where we are?
Yet you do not mention ad (god rest his soul), thruglemir etc, who DO actually look at things.
BOTH sides are as bad as each other with the baiting.
Thanks for your insight Graham. Would you now please post examples of what you claim I'm doing and how I'm bullish? If you can find one post I've made that suggests I think house prices are going to rise from current levels within 5 years, I'll be very impressed, because I haven't made any, I've recently revised my opinion for a 2 year drop with 5 year subsequent return to current levels with stagnation for 5 years. So how is that bullish exactly?
On the other hand, when I've made predictions I've had them spot on, which is because I have a reasonable insight into what is happening in particular parts of the economy, and enough wit to sew things together holistically rather than extrapolating straight lines down into the abyss. I'm far more interested in working out what happens next based on observations of events and an essentially contrarian viewpoint rather than hoping that something that may be good for particular people happens and cherry picking evidence to support that thesis.
The only reason you bring up Thrugelmir and Ad is because they're both on the pessimistic side of the discussion. Thrugelmir is in my mind a thoughtful poster, though I disagree with someof his conclusions and also find some of his reasoning process suspect - he's caught me being wrong on a couple of occasions. Ad is/was a full on tin foil hatted bear with some interestingly apocalyptic notions about a lot of things, and in general he argues his beliefs passionately but politely.
Whereas you call things rubbish and don't explain which bits are rubbish and why they are rubbish. That's nihilism.0 -
The only reason you bring up Thrugelmir and Ad is because they're both on the pessimistic side of the discussion. Thrugelmir is in my mind a thoughtful poster, though I disagree with someof his conclusions and also find some of his reasoning process suspect - he's caught me being wrong on a couple of occasions. Ad is/was a full on tin foil hatted bear with some interestingly apocalyptic notions about a lot of things, and in general he argues his beliefs passionately but politely.
Can you do a paragraph on me? I might make it my signature. You can be blunt, I'm big and ugly enough to take it.0 -
Cleaver on the other hand is big and ugly enough to take it. He even asks for it sometimes. But he's not going to get it unless he really gets down and begs for it.0
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You obviously understand the irony of your post, in that sharp economic rises will cause bubbles, which have a nasty habit of going 'pop' and the fall out may be, just possibly, that people slip in to poverty and your friends might lose their jobs.
Just because people on here don't cheer HPI and easy lending to everyone it doesn't mean that they also celebrate people losing jobs and and economic strife. Some oddballs do of course, but they are in a minority methinks.
I have no opinion by the way, I just take the p*ss out of everyone to cover my lack of knowledge on any subject.
Did I mention HPI or sharp economic rises? I said I was hoping for economic recovery they need not be directly linked.0 -
made a fortune out of what is probably a once in a lifetime national property bubble (although I could be wrong and regional ones happen more frequent!).
Major UK national bubbles have been coming along every 7-8 years for the last fifty. If you are willing to invest aborad, you can find one with a little research. Looking at the current policies, they are guaranteed to stoke up quite a few bubbles all over the world.
Personally, I would be looking to Iceland, Japan, and Russia. All of them have ideal bubble potential.“The ideas of debtor and creditor as to what constitutes a good time never coincide.”
― P.G. Wodehouse, Love Among the Chickens0 -
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I don`t agree that bears wish for economic collapse, crashing property and stock markets.
My leanings have always be bearish. I have stock market investments and a house.
I just can`t see that the bubble in the housing market was/ is sustainable.
I would imagine that there are many like me who looked at the massive rise in property with total amazement. then again, I have recently been described as a bemused English gentleman. I don`t mind that description.0
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