Brexit, the economy and house prices part 5

Tromking wrote: »

That’s some claim you’ve made there. Any evidence for that or just more hyperbole?

Unfortunately only evidence from experts, thus you'll find some way to disprove or disbelieve it. I don't have the energy to keep retreading the same old ground.

Herzlos wrote: »

If the forecasts (from government and experts) are anything like reality, I'd be willing to bet we'd be trying to rejoin within 10 years.

Would you mind linking me to the evidence on the reliability of Treasury forecasts please.
The 2016 forecasts turned out badly wrong. What modelling adjustments did they use this time round to make the new 15 yr forecast reliable?

Herzlos wrote: »

We've almost become the poor man of Europe again already and we haven't even changed anything.

Here are just a proportion of latest updates on UK plc;


In the last quarter , UK startups raised almost as much capital as those in the rest of the EU put together
The UK has held on to its top ranked position as an investment destination in Europe with 22% market share worth £38bn, showing that our inward investment appeal retains its dominance despite Brexit uncertainties
The UK remains the world's top exporter for financial and professional services, with a trade surplus of £57bn, far ahead of the US, which has net exports of £31bn
Investment in the UK’s fintech segment is double the amount invested in 2016
Citibank now expects only a handful of London job losses
Europeans flock to UK Universities with 2017 admissions 10% up on 2016
An annual figure of 1.8% for 2017 puts the UK ahead of OECD forecasts for growth in fellow G7 members Japan and Italy, both of which are expected to grow at 1.5% in 2017, and in line with France, which is expected to grow at 1.8%.
Record low unemployment rate.
Employment growth was concentrated among full-time employee roles.
Inactivity rate dropped to 21.2%, the joint lowest since records began
in 1971.
ONS - the budget deficit hit its lowest December level in 17 years
Productivity growth first time since 2010

Herzlos wrote: »

Except that the EU isn't a dictatorship, much as some claim it is, and we'd still be able to push to maintain the status quo.

Now we'll have to go along with whatever the rest of the EU wants if we want to access it's markets. As the most reluctant member I think it'll integrate a lot faster now, which is even worse for us on the outside.

Though a point that I do wonder about. What's the actual problem with ever closer union? All that reduction in red tape and redundancy, simpler regulation, and so on.
Is it loss of national identity? Something the EU has a department to actively maintan, and couldn't be removed from us over various occupations over the centuries?
Is it the loss of Sovereignty? That we don't really have anyway, because we now get to follow rules with no say in them.
Is it that it all sounds a bit communist? Or that we don't want to use foreign currencies or we're worried they'll make us speak French?

Is it the latest thing for Brexiteers to latch onto without understanding in an attempt to pretend they want Brexit for more upstanding reasons than good old xenophobia?

Abiding by market rules is what the entire world does, no probs, for example China or Argentina selling into the EU or US.

We will sit at global rule setting tables that hands down rules to the EU.

Where is the evidence that non EU members feel terribly hampered by not being members? Lots of nations have increased their exports faster into the EU than the UK, so there's no evidence membership is necessary for success.

EVER CLOSER UNION - from Austria to the Czech Republic, Poland to Hungary, Germany to Sweden, we are seeing a tsunami rise of the right & even normal Conservative parties having to beef up their language to levels of pungency we'd never allow in the UK. The Hungarian PM and others keep saying there is a battle to regain the people's democracy. Anyone not aware of this is not able to pass proper judgement on Brexit and the EU.

LOCALISM - we all seem to think localism is a positive, whether it be about local produce or local politics, we like feeling we have more of a say and influence of local issues, that there is local accountability and traceability. Why then would we think far away elites in Brussels would be good at meeting the local needs around our lived daily experiences?
It's bad enough having Govt based in London, let alone another tier in Brussels run by largely unelected, stupendously out of touch pen pushers.

Your comment on xenophobia I think doesn't warrant a reply.

Herzlos wrote: »

Unfortunately only evidence from experts, thus you'll find some way to disprove or disbelieve it. I don't have the energy to keep retreading the same old ground.

So no actual economic data to back up your claim that the “UK is almost the sick man of Europe” again?
You know if you make outlandish claims without data to back it up, it’s not up to others to disprove or disbelieve anything don’t you?