Understanding regional variances and historical house price crashes

IveSeenTheLight

Just bumped to allow people to see the actual effect on house prices in everyones own area during the last 20 years (includes during the last "crash")

http://www.hbosplc.com/economy/inclu...TownsData3.xls

dopester

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

I dont compare Aberdeen to other area's. I compare it to itself.

The reason is I fully believe that there are regional variances.

mitchaa wrote: »

As i stated in another thread, i live in Aberdeenshire and my property has increased in value by between £35-£45000 in the last 10 months.

Get in ! :rotfl:

Aberdeen -7%

Meanwhile, Aberdeen recorded the greatest reversal in fortunes. The Granite City, which had previously recorded the highest prices in Scotland, has now been knocked from the top position.

In the second quarter this year, house prices in Aberdeen rose by 3 per cent year-on-year, but in the third quarter the average price in the city dropped by 7 per cent.

http://news.scotsman.com/scotland/Scottish-housing-sector-joins-the.4555236.jp

moanymoany

Geriatrica on sea where we are watching is going down - but very slowly. Most of the property seems to be executors, so the property is standing empty.

I wonder what is going to happen up to Christmas. Maybe the executors are taking the attitude that they need the higher price and will wait.

carolt

moanymoany wrote: »

Geriatrica on sea where we are watching is going down - but very slowly. Most of the property seems to be executors, so the property is standing empty.

I wonder what is going to happen up to Christmas. Maybe the executors are taking the attitude that they need the higher price and will wait.

We sold an inherited property a few years ago, and can't see why an executor would wait for top dollar in a falling market, particularly over winter, when they have to continue paying heating/maintenance costs. We made sure we sold by autumn, as we knew that - in a similar-sounding area to yours, there'd be little or no interest over the winter.

carolt

dopester wrote: »

Get in ! :rotfl:

Aberdeen -7%

http://news.scotsman.com/scotland/Scottish-housing-sector-joins-the.4555236.jp

Ah, but Scotland is 'different', isn't it, according to mitchaa and ISTL.

Or is it?

IveSeenTheLight

dopester wrote: »

Get in ! :rotfl:

Aberdeen -7%

http://news.scotsman.com/scotland/Scottish-housing-sector-joins-the.4555236.jp

My, your a gloater.
This must have made your day

I've never said any area is immune, I said that some areas were more prone to drops than others.
Your'e actually way too late in saying this.
HBOS showed a -1.28% between March 2008 - Jun 2008, although their YOY to June was +6.50%
http://www.hbosplc.com/economy/includes/25_07_08CountyHistoricData.xls

According to http://www.nationwide.co.uk/hpi/historical/q3_2008.pdf
Aberdeen in Q3 08 was average at £219,879
Aberdeen in Q2 08 was average at £225,124
Aberdeen in Q3 07 was average at £236,220

So it is -6.9% according to Nationwides figures YOY.
In Q3 2007 it was +35% YOY.
http://www.nationwide.co.uk/hpi/historical/q3_2007.pdf
Effectively according to Nationwide, prices have returned on average to Q2 2007
http://www.nationwide.co.uk/hpi/historical/q2_2007.pdf

It's important to understand where the figures come from, while HBOS September figures are not yet released, the June YOY quarter was +6.50%
Jun 2007 = £183,907, Jun 2008 = £195,868
http://www.hbosplc.com/economy/includes/25_07_08CountyHistoricData.xls
It will be very interesting to see when the HBOS q£ figures come out as it would be very interesting if they went from +6.5% YOY to -6.9% YOY in one quarter.
Somehow I dont think so.

Even if Q3 08 is -6.9%, this will not bother me for two reasons
1) Capital appreciation has risen more than the depreciation since I bought the property (minor consequance for my plans)
2) Rent received more than covers the costs including my capital and interest BTL mortgage. Extra rent received goes towards my mortgage meaning the property has a near 50% LTV

But keep your eye on the figures going forward, I'm sure they will continue to be interesting.

carolt

A bit of reverse gloating entirely understandable, after years of gloating from those gaining from house prices rising.

Not nice, but can you blame him?

IveSeenTheLight

carolt wrote: »

Ah, but Scotland is 'different', isn't it, according to mitchaa and ISTL.

Or is it?

Now now carolt, I've never said Scotland is 'different'
But I guess you are right, Scotland is 'different' as is Liverpool, Manchester, Norwich, Poole etc etc etc.
As this thread suggests, I say that each area is affected differently and that there are regional variations.
I've never said Scotland is immune (look back to post 1 where I showed Aberdeen has a 9% drop n one year previously), I did say that due to affordability factors that Scotland will be less affected as I'm sure that other areas such as London and South East would be affected more.

Stop twisting things

baileysbattlebus

Sorry if I am repeating myself - I posted this on a different thread.

The monthly figures provided by Nationwide and Halifax (HBoS) are not based on actual selling prices.
They are based on their own mortgage approvals only -
They don't include any council house sales
They don't include any properties below a certain size.

They use a mix type analysis (hedonic), take different aspects of each type of house, location etc and come up with a representative house and representative price for each area. This is supposed to stop any skewness caused by one type selling more than another, ie: more detached houses sold than terraces.

75% of houses sold are mortgaged and of that 75%, the market share of the Nationwide is around 8% and HBoS 20%.
In their September figures the Nationwide said there had been price increases of 2% in the City of Durham, while estate agents said the prices were in fact falling. If 8% market share is typical in Durham, Nationwide based it's figure about 26 or 27 properties, assuming non were cash sales. So, because they use a fairly small and getting smaller sample size, IMO the figures that are published will become less meaningful.
The other weakness is they use mortgage approvals, not deals done, sales fall through and house prices can be renogiated during the process - as evidenced on this board.

25% of all houses in the UK are bought for cash - these are only captured by the Land Registry, who also use actual selling prices for their figures. But as it uses a like for like analysis the Land Registry excludes new builds, which account for about 10% of the market.
And, obviously because they use completed sales, the figures lag behind by several months.

Between Nationwide and HBoS they report on about 20% of whole of the UK housing market - there is another 80% you aren't seeing.

hethmar

LITTLE MISS - I have Open Office and its working. There is a slide bottom right of page which opens the columns.