Understanding regional variances and historical house price crashes

IveSeenTheLight

Generali wrote: »

According to this inflation totalled about 40% between 1989 and 1996. If you just ignore it then I don't really see what this proves.
.

House prices in the post code I reviewed only shows initial falls in 1993

According to your link, inflation between 1993 and 1996 was 7.58%, house prices increased in this area between 1993 and 1996 by 9.22%.

Sticking to your years, agreed inflation was 39.39%, however house prices for this area increase 56.8%

Statistics can be very subjective and impede on how you want to see them.

This post is really to let pelpe see how much on average house prices have risen and fallen includingly importantly during the last house price crash

fernie1

Dont think this post is in the right place so please forgive me. As you seem to know what you are talking about does any one know anythink about c.p.o's or the demolision of private property that is on a council estate or guide me to the correct link where i may get some advice. Thanks

mitchaa

SouthCoast wrote: »

I would have expected Aberdeen to be the one place in the country that is different because of the oil impact.

As i stated in another thread, i live in Aberdeenshire and my property has increased in value by between £35-£45000 in the last 10 months. This figure is based on an independent valuation and evidence of 3-4 very recent sales of same properties.

I wonder what happens to the UK average figure when a couple of £1m 2 bed Fulham flats fail to meet their valuation and sell for £650k.

If London is falling, then its a sure certainty that the UK is falling:rolleyes:
Hence the importance of regional variation and this thread in particular:T

If London sees 50% falls from ''average £400k'' today down to say more reasonable and affordable £200k levels, does that mean Aberdeens falls will drop from todays average of £200k down to £100k??

Yeah right;)

SouthCoast

As you seem to know what you are talking about

:rotfl:


I suggest that you start a new thread.

IveSeenTheLight

Incisor wrote: »

And for that reason, probably it is not one you could expect to keep bucking the trend.

I dont compare Aberdeen to other area's. I compare it to itself.
The reason is I fully believe that there are regional variances.

I found it really interesting looking at different area to see how they were affected from 1988, but never did I compare them to Aberdeen.

Please do not fall into this trap.
Please just use the information for your own area analysis

Jonbvn

Interesting data for my area (Cardiff).

Rose approx 27% in 1989.
Dropped 7% in 1990.
Reasonably flat 1991 to 1995 (some minor changes each year)
Steady rises 1995 to 2000.
Big rises 2000 to 2004.
4% drop in 2005.
6% & 3% gains in 2006 & 2007 respectively.

The surge in prices after 2000 seems to be present in all areas, but the timing varies. I'm somewhat surprised that prices have been relatively flat in Cardiff since 2005, according to the data. Perhaps the oversupply of flats in the Bay is driving this?

LittleMissAspie

Spreadsheet won't work I use OpenOffice and I can't get the hidden columns to show? I have tried saving it as a .ods but still doesn't work.

Generali

I agree that a house should be thought of as a home not an investment but I still don’t see what you prove with this. Negative equity = starting equity - (fall in nominal value of house + value of missed interest payments + penalties + fees)

You miss part of the equation. The value of missed interest payments will tend to be higher as inflation rises and interest rates rise with it. If the BoE tries to maintain negative real interest rates then the market will refuse to play ball as the lender will see the value of his asset (loan) fall in value over time and either charge a much higher interest rate than base or simply refuse to lend.

neas

Its interesting it seems plymouth didnt even suffer much during the last crash... its house prices being around 50k static before and after the last crash.. Ofc this isn't taking into account to inflation.

Theres more of a drop now then there ever was last time...

More interesting though is that the prices have almost tripled over the same period... so its inflated quite alot heh.

IveSeenTheLight

Generali wrote: »

I agree that a house should be thought of as a home not an investment but I still don’t see what you prove with this. Negative equity = starting equity - (fall in nominal value of house + value of missed interest payments + penalties + fees)

You miss part of the equation. The value of missed interest payments will tend to be higher as inflation rises and interest rates rise with it. If the BoE tries to maintain negative real interest rates then the market will refuse to play ball as the lender will see the value of his asset (loan) fall in value over time and either charge a much higher interest rate than base or simply refuse to lend.

Generali,
I'm surprised you can't see the point of the original post and try to go off on a tangent to which I am responding to.

The point of the post was to show regional variances in house prices and actual average prices during the last 20 years (includes the last house price crash).

Of course people can factor in inflation as to the affordability or real value of the house, by in simple terms it still comes down to whether the property is affordable or not given the actual house prices.

Now you tried to counter in that inflation rose by near 40% during that time but you failed to look into the house price increase which increased by over 58% in the same time, and this was during the last house price crash.

I disagree with your formula for negative equity.
If you bought a property for 100,000 and it increases by 20,000 and then sees a drop by 10,000 then the property is not in negative equity

Negative equity is when the outstanding mortgage is more than the value of the property. Lets not discuss late payment penalties, interest etc as this presumes that the owner has defaulted on the property which may not be the case.

Now, lets keep this on track and in line with the original post intention of letting people review their own area and the actual average house price for their area in the last 20 years