Understanding regional variances and historical house price crashes

IveSeenTheLight

neas wrote: »

Its interesting it seems plymouth didnt even suffer much during the last crash... its house prices being around 50k static before and after the last crash.. Ofc this isn't taking into account to inflation.

Theres more of a drop now then there ever was last time...

More interesting though is that the prices have almost tripled over the same period... so its inflated quite alot heh.

It is very interesting (local prices during last crash). I thought so too.

I'm interested to know how you are measuring the prive drop now. Is it local or is it the uk average?

neas

I remember seeing a weblink (either nationwide or halifax) that showed the regional drops.. Believe Southwest was -4% higher than the median.

Im also monitoring my area for houses im interested in on rightmove. Seing 5-15k drops regularly with some properties droping 5k off their asking price every month.

Property bee is awesome .

IveSeenTheLight

neas wrote: »

I remember seeing a weblink (either nationwide or halifax) that showed the regional drops.. Believe Southwest was -4% higher than the median.

Im also monitoring my area for houses im interested in on rightmove. Seing 5-15k drops regularly with some properties droping 5k off their asking price every month.

Property bee is awesome .

ok, thanks.
I take asking prices with a pinch of salt. The only true method of analysing is with actual prices sales, not asking price drops.

PasturesNew

I just know that where I was living in the last crash, bedsits were £70k so I bought a mobile home to live in. As we didn't have the internet and not much TV I had no idea prices were dropping and was nearly 30 anyway so had to move out from home for my sanity. According to those figures the average house price where I lived was £91k (1988) when a studio bedsit was £70k. completely unaffordable (only 3x single salary allowed in those days).

I've moved to a cheaper area and I looked and house prices here are half here what they were there back then. If I'd lived here back then I'd have been able to buy an average house, not a studio. Making this area significantly more affordable.

Even at today's salary, at 3x salary I couldn't go back in time and buy an average house in 1988 where I grew up (Cambridge) as it was £91k then.

chodges84

Nice Spreadsheet

I've just looked at my 2 nearest cities Hereford and Gloucester and it shows some good reading.

In Great Crash 1 Hereford and Gloucester only lost about 6% in value. (as pointed out high inflation made the falls bigger)

Since then Gloucester has been rising YoY to an average of £190,000. However Hereford peaked in 2004 at £201,000 and has fallen back to £177k in 2006 (2007 data isn't available). That still isn't back to 2003 levels though as shockingly they rose £40,000 in 1 year. It just goes to show how stupid this whole thing has been.

This time we will be lacking wage inflation too, so expect bigger and harder drops. (thats my opinion)

dopester

I'veseenthelight.. who are you trying to reassure and convince?

Yourself by the look of it.

We're in for the mother of all house price crashes imo - so your regional variances aren't going to save you from suffering much pain imo if you paid too much for your property, have a big mortgage, and don't have a secure job and income.

dopester

mitchaa wrote: »

As i stated in another thread, i live in Aberdeenshire and my property has increased in value by between £35-£45000 in the last 10 months.

mitchaa it's this kind of post which frustrates me. You bang on how it's impossible for house prices to suffer such drops... but you find it entirely natural for your own place to go up in value £45,000 in 10 months, having given the place only a lick of paint.

Its value is only realised when you sell and bank the money - until that time it's only a house/flat.

globalds

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

Now I know that this time its different and it does not mean that the results will be the same, however if we are to take any guidance on the previous crash, it would be possible to see a fall of 20% for Aberdeen taking the price back to 2006 prices.
If the data follows this trend, then we could see prices rising again the following year.


Aberdeen Average Price Increase / Decrease
on previous year

Annual Data – 1988 £42,027 No Data available
Annual Data – 1989 £45,881 9.17%
Annual Data – 1990 £59,112 28.84%
Annual Data – 1991 £65,060 10.06%
Annual Data – 1992 £72,447 11.35%
Annual Data – 1993 £65,869 -9.08%
Annual Data – 1994 £69,050 4.83%
Annual Data – 1995 £65,640 -4.94%
Annual Data – 1996 £71,948 9.61%
Annual Data – 1997 £73,037 1.51%
Annual Data – 1998 £79,022 8.19%
Annual Data – 1999 £83,656 5.86%
Annual Data – 2000 £78,390 -6.29%
Annual Data – 2001 £84,845 8.23%
Annual Data – 2002 £92,426 8.94%
Annual Data – 2003 £107,240 16.03%
Annual Data – 2004 £112,639 5.03%
Annual Data – 2005 £135,604 20.39%
Annual Data – 2006 £171,767 26.67%
Annual Data – 2007 £202,755 18.04%

These last few years have seen nearly £100,000 added to the cost of purchasing in your area .Lots more people are going to be unable to reach the bar at this height This is only one ingredient required for a crash .The other is enough people needing to sell ,that it floods the market.
Does this look likely in Aberdeen ? ......My oppinion ...not unless the price of oil collapses ..

IveSeenTheLight

dopester wrote: »

I'veseenthelight.. who are you trying to reassure and convince?

Yourself by the look of it.

We're in for the mother of all house price crashes imo - so your regional variances aren't going to save you from suffering much pain imo if you paid too much for your property, have a big mortgage, and don't have a secure job and income.

LOL:rotfl:

I'm trying to convince no-one.
I just posted some facts about actual average house prices, how they were affected during the last 20 years.
Its up to everyone to assess this information for themselves.

I only am trying to keep to the original point instead of letting it descend as every other post does into something which is not what the thread was about

IveSeenTheLight

globalds wrote: »

These last few years have seen nearly £100,000 added to the cost of purchasing in your area .Lots more people are going to be unable to reach the bar at this height This is only one ingredient required for a crash .The other is enough people needing to sell ,that it floods the market.
Does this look likely in Aberdeen ? ......My oppinion ...not unless the price of oil collapses ..

You make a good point until you look at Scotland is still one of the cheapest area's to buy property.

Even if you consider the oil effect, the average house prices are now only approxiamately equivalent to the UK average.

How underpriced were they before?