Understanding regional variances and historical house price crashes

globalds

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

You make a good point until you look at Scotland is still one of the cheapest area's to buy property.

Even if you consider the oil effect, the average house prices are now only approxiamately equivalent to the UK average.

How underpriced were they before?

I have driven to Aberdeen a couple of times last year .
(To do some tests on a building near the Airport .)
It is a long way from civilisation maybe that has some effect on house prices ?

IveSeenTheLight

globalds wrote: »

I have driven to Aberdeen a couple of times last year .
(To do some tests on a building near the Airport .)
It is a long way from civilisation maybe that has some effect on house prices ?

LOL:rotfl: LOL

Why did you not fly up?
Is where your from not civilised enough to have an airport;)

LOL:rotfl: LOL

EdInvestor

chodges84 wrote: »

In Great Crash 1 Hereford and Gloucester only lost about 6% in value. (as pointed out high inflation made the falls bigger)

Indeed so, and as a result, because the stagnation went on so long, there was a considerable overshot on the downside by te time the market revived.

. That still isn't back to 2003 levels though as shockingly they rose £40,000 in 1 year. It just goes to show how stupid this whole thing has been.

The earlier overshoot on the downside led to a corrective upward blip - not stupid in fact.

Quite a lot of places have had only fairly modest increases since 2005, more or less in line with local wage rises.IMHO these areas will be fairly stable going forward and even if affected by mortgage famine at the bottom end will rebound rapidly when the credit crunch ends, as they are not now fundamentally overvalued.

globalds

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

LOL:rotfl: LOL

Why did you not fly up?
Is where your from not civilised enough to have an airport;)

LOL:rotfl: LOL

If only my test equipment fitted in a breifcase .

IveSeenTheLight

EdInvestor wrote: »

Indeed so, and as a result, because the stagnation went on so long, there was a considerable overshot on the downside by te time the market revived.



The earlier overshoot on the downside led to a corrective upward blip - not stupid in fact.

Quite a lot of places have had only fairly modest increases since 2005, more or less in line with local wage rises.IMHO these areas will be fairly stable going forward and even if affected by mortgage famine at the bottom end will rebound rapidly when the credit crunch ends, as they are not now fundamentally overvalued.

I'm wondering looking at the average actual house prices and their drops durin gthe last crash if there will only be a nominal small drops around a lot of the country (say 10 - 15%) with London experiencing slightly higher and more prolonged drops (as shown during the last crash) thus skewing the UK average by an even higher percentage

IveSeenTheLight

globalds wrote: »

If only my test equipment fitted in a breifcase .

I've travelled all around Britain with test equipment which I've taken on planes.
If it can fit in a car, I'm sure it can fit in the hold of a plane.
Of course I don't know how sensitive your equipment is ,if you have a company car or how far you had to commute so I accept your reasons.

I just thought it funny you were inferring Aberdeen was uncivilised (in jest I know) yet you were working near the airport and didn't fly

globalds

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

I've travelled all around Britain with test equipment which I've taken on planes.
If it can fit in a car, I'm sure it can fit in the hold of a plane.
Of course I don't know how sensitive your equipment is ,if you have a company car or how far you had to commute so I accept your reasons.

I just thought it funny you were inferring Aberdeen was uncivilised (in jest I know) yet you were working near the airport and didn't fly

We do fly to Ireland as we have enough tests in one area to make this the logical choice.
The Run to Aberdeen would be designed as the tail end of a series of tests; last time was Edinburgh and then Aberdeen.
I like Aberdeen, other than it being a tad cold in the winter I can see nothing wrong with it .Well maybe the traffic jams in the morning could be fixed .

To get back on thread .Is the buy to let market big in Aberdeen .As lots of people seem to think this is having / will have a big effect on house prices.

IveSeenTheLight

globalds wrote: »

To get back on thread .Is the buy to let market big in Aberdeen .As lots of people seem to think this is having / will have a big effect on house prices.

There is a solid rental market in Aberdeen. Oil, 2 Universities, House prices etc.
I'm intereted how you think BTL's has a large effect on house prices?

Naturally I realise that it has increased competition for the same property which will have pushed prices up a little, but even before the credit crunch, people still had to conform to the minimum deposit and expected rental return (125% of mortgage).

Last year it was still possible to buy properties that fell within the expected rental return (assuming only a 15% deposit was used). This may be tighter now, but may still be possible on some properties.
Likelyhood is that new BTL's will reduce until the markets reflect a decent rental return for new mortgages

emujuice

Interesting to look at Sheffield - which saw only minor falls during the ninties - 4%-2% before rising 10%+ afterwards. But it's intriguing what this really means (in terms of prices rises rather than falls) as surely the housing stock has changed over the last 15 years? New estates with detached houses etc... inner city flats - no body builds new victorian terraces do they!! Surely average prices do increase if there are new builds as they are nearly always worth more.
Obviously individual prices for each house has increased - I don't dispute that, but averages are just that!

IveSeenTheLight

emujuice wrote: »

Interesting to look at Sheffield - which saw only minor falls during the ninties - 4%-2% before rising 10%+ afterwards. But it's intriguing what this really means (in terms of prices rises rather than falls) as surely the housing stock has changed over the last 15 years? New estates with detached houses etc... inner city flats - no body builds new victorian terraces do they!! Surely average prices do increase if there are new builds as they are nearly always worth more.
Obviously individual prices for each house has increased - I don't dispute that, but averages are just that!

It is interesting when you look at specific area and how much on average the price dropped during the last crash.
Randomly searching, I saw most places saw small drops followed by rises which countered the drops.
London boroughs seemed to be the worst though and it made me think that if there are significant drops in Londond, then this can majrly affect the UK average.

Of course the averages, they are just that, an average.
You will see prices higher and lower than the average.
Many people quote the UK average house price, but I thought this link paints a vastly different picture for regional average variance all along the last 20 years when compared to the uk average along the same timeline.