Losing momentum

poppy10_2

Brilliant post, beingjdc! :T

neverdespairgirl

RDB wrote: »

In the UK house prices have always doubled every 8 years. That's about 12.5% per year. Always have always will.

Never heard such rubbish!

MrDT

Annpan wrote: »

I'm worried about you lot depressing yourselves in the afternoon when the sun's shining and the birds are singing. Take a break and get outside. What will be will be. Buy now so I can sell and all will be well.

This comment tickled me. What makes you think that falling prices depress us? :rolleyes:

Or did reading the thread depress you?

Don't worry, if you're selling to move to a bigger place falling prices will benefit you too, something to put a smile on your face when out in the sun tomorrow afternoon listening to the tweetybirds sing

Sell cheaply now so you can buy cheaply tomorrow and all will be well...

teabelly

The doubling has been true since the 1950s. Some suggest it goes back to as far back as the 1920s or earlier. Prices tend to double anywhere between 5-12 years. The 90s crash caused the big bubble as prices were just reverting to the long term growth patterns. Blame the war, lack of house building post war and the baby boomers. Once they die off then prices may stop this long term trend. But with inflation halving the value of the pound every 15 years or so then it is likely that prices will double every generation instead which means they'd stay flat relative to the cost of living but increase in absolute numbers.

If you told someone 92 years ago that average house would be £180,000 and the average wage would be 25k then they'd think it was impossible. Assuming doubling every 10 years or so then the average house could be 14 million. Every 15 years and it would probably be more like 6 million.

abaxas

teabelly wrote: »

The doubling has been true since the 1950s. Some suggest it goes back to as far back as the 1920s or earlier. Prices tend to double anywhere between 5-12 years. The 90s crash caused the big bubble as prices were just reverting to the long term growth patterns. Blame the war, lack of house building post war and the baby boomers. Once they die off then prices may stop this long term trend. But with inflation halving the value of the pound every 15 years or so then it is likely that prices will double every generation instead which means they'd stay flat relative to the cost of living but increase in absolute numbers.

If you told someone 92 years ago that average house would be £180,000 and the average wage would be 25k then they'd think it was impossible. Assuming doubling every 10 years or so then the average house could be 14 million. Every 15 years and it would probably be more like 6 million.

Arghhhh,

The doubling of house prices is a function of available finance and wage inflation. You cant compare years when wage inflation is 3.5% to those when it is 10%.

Wage inflation IS the housing ladder. In recent years the ladder has been broken, all we've had is low wage inflation but high credit availability.

moanymoany

Until fairly recently many have compared the UK's vibrant economy with the 'sluggish' French economy. What no-one seemed prepared to examine was how the economy was fuelled, in the UK it was fuelled by debt. All the cars, clothes, nights out, holidays, etc, etc, that made the UK economy vibrant was done on borrowed money. All those ads for 'consolidating' your debt, all those loans secured on the house, all that re-mortgaging - is why many people will find themselves in negative equity and unable to pay mortgage or debts. I feel sorry for them, it suited the Government to encourage the spendthrift attitude in people. I'm not generally in favour of a nanny state, but I think the French have got it right where debt is concerned.


In France there is very little borrowing compared to here. The credit card has to be paid off each month. The idea of DFW's there would be impossible as the young people do not get themselves into the huge levels of debt that has been common here. House prices do rise and do fall, but not with the massive swings and dreadful social consequences we see here.

In the early 90's I was working as a family law solicitor. As the housing market slump bit, topped off with the massive redundancies, the re-possessions started and the number of people walking through my door massively increased.

Interestingly, most jobless people lost their houses because the second mortgagee took repossession proceedings. How many people now have taken out 'secured' loans to pay the debts incurred by crazy spending?

I've been a prophet of doom for the last year. I think that in ten years time we will see half the cars on the roads. Life will be different for the majority with the rising food and fuel prices - they are not going away. Many of us will be living a life recognisable to those who lived in the 1950's. Waste not want not - make do and mend - save up and buy it - and all that.

lethal0r

omg 13 pages! 'Losing momentum' - no.

thread closed

Annpan

MrDT wrote: »

This comment tickled me. What makes you think that falling prices depress us? :rolleyes:

Or did reading the thread depress you?

Don't worry, if you're selling to move to a bigger place falling prices will benefit you too, something to put a smile on your face when out in the sun tomorrow afternoon listening to the tweetybirds sing

Sell cheaply now so you can buy cheaply tomorrow and all will be well...

Going for a bit of a downsize but am not in despair. At that funny age you see when you realize what's important. We rather fancy the seaside but not ready for a zimmer frame yet. Tee hee. Happy Days!

motch

Annpan wrote: »

Going for a bit of a downsize but am not in despair. At that funny age you see when you realize what's important. We rather fancy the seaside but not ready for a zimmer frame yet. Tee hee. Happy Days!

there lies yours predicament. hope it works out well for you Ann

johnny_storm

moanymoany wrote: »

I think that in ten years time we will see half the cars on the roads.

Amen to that!!!! Can we say next year instead though?