Losing momentum

RDB

mr.broderick wrote: »

Anybody else feel that the so called crash is losing a bit of momentum?
Got a feeling the peeps hanging on for the crash might be tempted to buy shortly while there is still a chance to get a good deal. Anybody else agree with these sentiments?

In the UK house prices have always doubled every 8 years. That's about 12.5% per year. Always have always will.

Why is everyone making such a fuss of course they will go up and down a bit in between, but history will repeat itself.

Unless anyone is stupid enough to believe what the media feeds them. Anyone in the know can be sure that what has always happened will continue to happen in 8 years they will be double what they are now.

johnny_storm

Thats funny, Id say the media has been feeding the lie that house prices always go up for years.

Pay is going up 3% (If that) and you predict 12.5% HPI every year. How does that work? If you were right, which you arent, house prices will end up being 10x, 12x, 14x etc average salary. OR we would have to see massive pay increases.

Dont worry, neither of these things are going to happen. In fact, what will happen is a crash of 50% in the next 2 years.

Rover

RDB wrote: »

In the UK house prices have always doubled every 8 years. That's about 12.5% per year. Always have always will.

Why is everyone making such a fuss of course they will go up and down a bit in between, but history will repeat itself.

Unless anyone is stupid enough to believe what the media feeds them. Anyone in the know can be sure that what has always happened will continue to happen in 8 years they will be double what they are now.

House prices, on average have always risen. As has wages, growth, etc.
However 12.5% is tosh, since 1975 averaged annual HPI has been 2.4%.
Secondly, doubling of house prices every eight years is also tosh.

Historically, house prices peak (and trough) every 14-18 years. If you consider our last peak to be Autum 2007. The next peak will be ~2023.
As I've said before the current correction will last until 2012, give or take.

Are you Sarah Beeny, you seem to have the same lucid, rapier like grasp of economics and historical trends?

Paul_N_4

nollag2006 wrote: »

Which should help reduce supply and prop up prices, which is good news for all

Over 1million houses and rising now up for sale so certainly no lack of supply out there:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/1947218/Homes-for-sale-number-rises-to-above-1m.html

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nollag2006

Paul_N wrote: »

Over 1million houses and rising now up for sale so certainly no lack of supply out there:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/1947218/Homes-for-sale-number-rises-to-above-1m.html

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Just sensationalist headlines from the Torygraph.

Helps sell papers

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Paul_N_4

The figure, calculated by Rightmove, the property website that covers nine out of 10 of all homes on the market

Wrong :rotfl:

poppy10_2

nollag2006 wrote: »

I wonder if any of the more intemperate members of the HPC fanclub have bothered to read the RICS Housing Market Survey for themselves, rather than relying on emotive headlines.
One interesting quote here: “the scale of house price falls remains relatively small at this stage compared to past downturns”. This is down to the lack of distressed sellers I in the market place

How about these quotes from the RICS pdf:

"Credit crises, mortgage famine, falling house prices, fuel shortages, industrial action – for those of us that cut our teeth in the 1970s property market, there is now an acute sense of d!jà vu. One keeps hoping it is just a ‘Life on Mars’ type experience, but reality sadly prevails."

"No credit, no confidence, no customers. With all the doom and gloom, we see little prospect of an upturn in activity until the lending institutions resolve their difficulties. It’s time to hold your nerve."

"Vendors are still in denial on price reductions."

"It has been another tough month: only lower priced properties that have been drastically reduced seem to have sold."

"We have found that surveys for house purchase have practically dried
up. New enquiries are almost non-existent and even the waste of time applicants are not looking at property."

"‘Gazundering’ is prevalent, as is a spirit of gloom and uncertainty. There are still some unrealistic expectations amongst vendors."

"The properties that have not been reduced in price have really
struggled and are getting very few, if any, viewings."

"Financial institutions and others associated with the housing market
should consider the impact of publishing their expert forecasts."

"Might it be a good idea to regulate the Halifax and Nationwide and restrict them to making market commentary every 6 months?" :rotfl::T

"Currently, pricing is absolutely crucial from the outset. Agents with limited experience need to understand that sticking a high price on
and hoping for the best is absolutely NOT acting in the vendors best interest."

"Some recent sales have been ‘torpedoed’ by mortgage valuers who are
cruelly down valuing."


"Asking prices are falling steadily – the message seems to be finally getting through."

Enough for ya? :cool:

boinging_2

"Currently, pricing is absolutely crucial from the outset. Agents with limited experience need to understand that sticking a high price on
and hoping for the best is absolutely NOT acting in the vendors best interest."

This quote is most interesting. If I was an EA now I'd be very worried about the lack of activity in the market. All EA's were great at talking the talk on the way up, they need to start learning the language for the fall. After all at an average invoice rate of 1.5% of sale price, each £10,000 less they obtain a sale for is only costing them £150.

Between giving up a few hundred pounds to still make thousands I know what I'd be doing...

Annpan

I'm worried about you lot depressing yourselves in the afternoon when the sun's shining and the birds are singing. Take a break and get outside. What will be will be. Buy now so I can sell and all will be well.

beingjdc

RDB wrote: »

In the UK house prices have always doubled every 8 years.

Interesting.

So in the year 2100 the average house will cost £550million, whereas based on the government inflation target the average wage will be £150k.

So mortgages will have to be just over three and a half thousand times salary, and interest payments will average 183,000% of take-home pay.

Alternatively, the doubling every eight years theory could be hogwash.

Oh look, it is.

Average house price, Autumn 1989: £63,000
Average house price, Autumn 1997: £61,000