Losing momentum

dannyboycey

I think this thread has lost momentum. Mr Broderick, Nollag, et al, please provide some form of credible evidence to substantiate the your claims, as opposed to personal opinion.

Starting a thread with "Anyone else feel...." is nothing more than clutching at straws.

MrDT

mr.broderick wrote: »

Actually the funny thing is you and your like minded friends are....When they do fall i'm sure everyone will agree and most will be happy until then you are bang on...It is all made up....

Haha are you serious? You don't believe that prices are falling? :rotfl:

boinging_2

mr.broderick wrote: »

Actually the funny thing is you and your like minded friends are....When they do fall i'm sure everyone will agree and most will be happy until then you are bang on...It is all made up....

Come on Baldrick, as you well know prices are falling. Not quite the 20% I'd like but that will come by October 2008.

thriftybabe

I think the worst is yet to come. At the moment most people seem to managing their mortgages but what about all those that are now getting paid off. Estate Agents are struggling, timber merchants are slowing down, construction staff are being paid off, security staff on sites are now being paid off, overtime in construction has been cut! A local brick yard has actually closed its doors as the main of their business was from housebuilders who are no longer building. This is all still to have effect on those that cannot or will not be able to pay their mortgages when they are being paid off!

Pennywise

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

!!!!!! has a good point.
You should have to save in order to have a deposit to buy a house.
This reduces your outstanding loan, interet you have to pay and can also affect the interest rate you get for the mortgage.

It's ok, if you could not manage to save, but this would mean that you could not afford a mortgage.

This is the way it used to be (prior to easy credit) and this is how it is returning.

If you want to owna property you have to save for it.
If you can't save for a property then you accept it and live within your means.

Couldn't agree more. Sadly it was one of Thatcher's mistakes when her government opened the way for no-deposit finance. Before she made the changes, you even had to put down a significant deposit when buying something on HP. Unfortunately, over the years since, it has only been unrestricted credit that has kept the whole economy going (not just house prices), so no politician had the guts to put restrictions in place. The whole thing got out of hand, so now the lenders themselves have had to do something.

MrDT

thriftybabe wrote: »

A local brick yard has actually closed its doors as the main of their business was from housebuilders who are no longer building.

Exactly the same thing happening near me:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/wales/north_west/7359055.stm


I suspect it'll be happening all over the country...

boinging_2

Plus don't forget EAs need property to sell regardless of the price to survive.

Based on an average 1.5% rate:

House sells for £200k, EA makes £3k
House sells for £160k (20% drops), £2.6K

So overall a loss of £400. Not much compared with 0 at the present stand off. I think we'll start to see EA's begin to talk down the market and try and get people selling at prices which people are willing to pay.

nollag2006

MrDT wrote: »

Exactly the same thing happening near me:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/wales/north_west/7359055.stm


I suspect it'll be happening all over the country...

Which should help reduce supply and prop up prices, which is good news for all

I wonder if any of the more intemperate members of the HPC fanclub have bothered to read the RICS Housing Market Survey for themselves, rather than relying on emotive headlines.

Well in the interests of accuracy, here it is:

http://www.rics.org/Newsroom/Pressreleases/RICS_Housing_Market_Survey_April2008_130508.html

So despite the screaming headlines from VIs, such as the media, the devil, as always is in the detail.

One interesting quote here: “the scale of house price falls remains relatively small at this stage compared to past downturns”. This is down to the lack of distressed sellers I in the market place

As the credit crunch begins to subside, over the next few months, you will see demand start to return to the market, and prices gently trending upwards again

Let’s hope that normal service is resumed sooner rather than later

mustrum_ridcully

UK house prices could fall "at best" by 5-10% this year, according to secret Cabinet briefing notes accidentally revealed by a housing minister.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/7398244.stm

MrDT

nollag2006 wrote: »

Which should help reduce supply and prop up prices, which is good news for all

Maybe. There's an awful lot of 'supply' available in empty newbuilds though isn't there, and very little 'demand' as I see it.

I figured that established construction companies would have a clue about the housing market really. If they expect an upsurge in prices any time soon surely they'd be building more now ready to capitalise on that? Mothballing now and starting up again in a few years would make sense if they expect a downturn that will eventually pick up again a few years down the line

nollag2006 wrote: »

Let’s hope that normal service is resumed sooner rather than later

Agreed, lending at ~3.5x single salary or ~2.5x combined backed by a hefty deposit sounds great to me That's what you meant by 'normal' right? Get over the 'blip' that was the past few years?