Premium Bond Winner ?

Sg28

eskbanker said:

Sg28 said:

Playing the lottery at all in any circumstance is mathematically nonsensical. The total percentage of money paid in that is returned to winning players is around 50%. Meaning that for every £2 ticket bought you can expect, over the long run to win back £1. Discount the virtual impossibility of the jackpot and its even lower. 

At least with premium bonds the total paid in (interest) is returned. So the return is 100%.

Unless I'm misinterpreting your post (and I certainly don't understand the reference to "total paid in (interest)"), simplistically portraying comparative 'returns' of 50% and 100% is also mathematically nonsensical!  The lottery payouts are practically instantaneous, but the full capital on PBs is only paid back after holding them for that period, during which it will have been reduced in real terms value by inflation, so that timing forms an important part of any meaningful comparison, as do the prizes won, which should partially offset that inflation effect.  The relative odds of winning prizes also need to be taken into account, as the odds of a single lottery ticket winning a prize are far better than a single premium bond winning one in any given draw.

Don't get me wrong though, PBs undoubtedly make more sense (for most) than playing the lottery, but it's not meaningful to try to arbitrarily separate out a notion of 50% versus 100% 'returns'!

The % figures are the theoretical expected value (EV)

Its also expressed as "return to player" or (RTP) 

So in Premium bonds the total rtp is 100% as everyones theoretical interest (money gambled, or paid in as I put it) is paid into the pot and 100% of the pot is split between bond holders. 

With slot machines the rtp is generally something around 90-97%.  You are going to lose money over the long run. (Its negative expected value)

Lotterys and bingo type games are the worst at around 50%.

If one were to be inclined to gamble then knowing the RTP (EV) is beneficial. 

eskbanker

Sg28 said:

eskbanker said:

Sg28 said:

Playing the lottery at all in any circumstance is mathematically nonsensical. The total percentage of money paid in that is returned to winning players is around 50%. Meaning that for every £2 ticket bought you can expect, over the long run to win back £1. Discount the virtual impossibility of the jackpot and its even lower. 

At least with premium bonds the total paid in (interest) is returned. So the return is 100%.

Unless I'm misinterpreting your post (and I certainly don't understand the reference to "total paid in (interest)"), simplistically portraying comparative 'returns' of 50% and 100% is also mathematically nonsensical!  The lottery payouts are practically instantaneous, but the full capital on PBs is only paid back after holding them for that period, during which it will have been reduced in real terms value by inflation, so that timing forms an important part of any meaningful comparison, as do the prizes won, which should partially offset that inflation effect.  The relative odds of winning prizes also need to be taken into account, as the odds of a single lottery ticket winning a prize are far better than a single premium bond winning one in any given draw.

Don't get me wrong though, PBs undoubtedly make more sense (for most) than playing the lottery, but it's not meaningful to try to arbitrarily separate out a notion of 50% versus 100% 'returns'!

The % figures are the theoretical expected value (EV)

Its also expressed as "return to player" or (RTP) 

So in Premium bonds the total rtp is 100% as everyones theoretical interest (money gambled, or paid in as I put it) is paid into the pot and 100% of the pot is split between bond holders. 

With slot machines the rtp is generally something around 90-97%.  You are going to lose money over the long run. (Its negative expected value)

Lotterys and bingo type games are the worst at around 50%.

If one were to be inclined to gamble then knowing the RTP (EV) is beneficial. 

Ah right, thanks, it's clearer to me now what you were meaning, although it still doesn't seem a particularly useful metric to apply to premium bonds, even if it helps gamblers compare games - the term 'return' as applied to PBs would normally be used in the context of that achieved annually from savings and investments in order to evaluate against them, but the PB proposition is sufficiently different from all of these to make meaningful comparison difficult.

Gers

One lucky person has won £10k from a £2.00 bond bought in 1956.  There's always hope! 

taylornj

Looks like £150 won this month with £50k holding. 3 x £50 wins.

Johnjdc

0 on full holding, for a change (not that much of a change...)

fly-catchers

1 x £50 and 1 x £100 on full holding.

GalacticaActual

£200 this month (2 x £100).

30 prizes and £2,725.00 in total this year on a full holding of £50,000.

• £100 from a £50 batch of bonds bought in 2005 (first prize won)
• £100 from a £175 batch of bonds bought in 2016 (again, first prize won)

cymruchris

£150 this month on a full holding...

Jan 23 -£225
Feb 23 - £50
Mar 23 - £125
Apr 23 - £225
May 23 - £150
Jun 23 - £25
Jul 23 - £150
Aug 23 - £ No win
Sep 23 - £200
Oct 23 - £50
Nov 23 - £100
Dec 23 - £150

£1400 for the rolling year... 2.8% 

SandyN21

2023

£  25  Jan 

£ nil    Feb

£225  March  (2 x £100 + £25) 

£  25  March  (£25 - additional draw) 

£  75  April  (£25 + £50) 

£  25  May

£  50  June

£  50  July  (2 x £25) 

£100  Aug

£175  Sept  (£100 + £50 + £25) 

£150  Oct  (£100 + £50) 

£175  Nov (3 x £50 + £25) 

£150  Dec (£50 + £100) 

TOTAL FOR 2023 = £1,225 with max holding

sonny55

£1000 on FH !
super delighted !!