Premium Bond Winner ?

NaeIdea

Just joined MSE and seen this thread

Feb-23	£700
Mar-23	£375

We have had great returns on PB over the last two months (not quite the £1m, but they were nice surprises) and have won more in 2 months than we have had in the whole of the previous rolling year!

Hoping it stays that way, will give it another couple of months.

Florentine2023

£300 this month. Best month ever. Friends miffed as they’ve both full holdings and zilch for both this month. I have 44k which fluctuates as it’s easy to cash in if I need the money and reinvest when I can

mandarin6

RedImp_2 said:

Zero on max following blank February.
As I said last month funny how chance works 4 prizes in Jan, zero in Feb & Mar.
Does make me think winners often come from groups of numbers 

Agree that certain bonds win more than others.  For example in the list of main prizes this month Bond number 246JD came out twice for the same person from West Sussex winning 25k+5k (bond amount just over 39k)  Coincidence or bias? Tend to think the latter.

redpete

mandarin6 said:

RedImp_2 said:

Zero on max following blank February.
As I said last month funny how chance works 4 prizes in Jan, zero in Feb & Mar.
Does make me think winners often come from groups of numbers 

Agree that certain bonds win more than others.  For example in the list of main prizes this month Bond number 246JD came out twice for the same person from West Sussex winning 25k+5k (bond amount just over 39k)  Coincidence or bias? Tend to think the latter.

Why would there be a bias?  What would influence it?

RG2015

mandarin6 said:

RedImp_2 said:

Zero on max following blank February.
As I said last month funny how chance works 4 prizes in Jan, zero in Feb & Mar.
Does make me think winners often come from groups of numbers 

Agree that certain bonds win more than others.  For example in the list of main prizes this month Bond number 246JD came out twice for the same person from West Sussex winning 25k+5k (bond amount just over 39k)  Coincidence or bias? Tend to think the latter.

What an amazing coincidence!

mandarin6

redpete said:

mandarin6 said:

RedImp_2 said:

Zero on max following blank February.
As I said last month funny how chance works 4 prizes in Jan, zero in Feb & Mar.
Does make me think winners often come from groups of numbers 

Agree that certain bonds win more than others.  For example in the list of main prizes this month Bond number 246JD came out twice for the same person from West Sussex winning 25k+5k (bond amount just over 39k)  Coincidence or bias? Tend to think the latter.

Why would there be a bias?  What would influence it?

Beyond me. However Ernie 5 is completely different from Ernie 1-4 which used thermal noise to generate numbers. E5 is a computer developed in Switzerland and uses light to source randomness. 

N6xxy

My two cents.

My aunt has the max amount and sweats by having consecutive numbers. She has had them for years and every five years takes them all out and re buys. she wins at least £100 every month. That is her harmless theory.

younger sister has the max and has had them for about 8 months, she has won every single month so far, from £25 to £250 per month.

older sister has the max and has had them for about 5 years, she wins most months mainly £25s and £50s

mum has £10,000 and so does dad held for about a year and has won about £450 between them.

I have £6000 held for about 3 years and won £25

my 7 year old £2700 been building since he was 3 and has won £100 in total
my 10 year old £2950 been building since she was 2 -no wins
my 5 year old £1750 been building since she was 2 -£25

friends son recently put in £100 first month one £500

mandarin6

RG2015 said:

mandarin6 said:

RedImp_2 said:

Zero on max following blank February.
As I said last month funny how chance works 4 prizes in Jan, zero in Feb & Mar.
Does make me think winners often come from groups of numbers 

Agree that certain bonds win more than others.  For example in the list of main prizes this month Bond number 246JD came out twice for the same person from West Sussex winning 25k+5k (bond amount just over 39k)  Coincidence or bias? Tend to think the latter.

What an amazing coincidence!

Yes it is!  In my case I have a few small bonds but three come out regularly more than just coincidence (4k, 3k, 2k). Other bonds of similar amounts either didn't win or returned £25 over 12months. I've cashed those in and bought new bonds in draw 1 April, will see how they do.!

RG2015

mandarin6 said:

RG2015 said:

mandarin6 said:

RedImp_2 said:

Zero on max following blank February.
As I said last month funny how chance works 4 prizes in Jan, zero in Feb & Mar.
Does make me think winners often come from groups of numbers 

Agree that certain bonds win more than others.  For example in the list of main prizes this month Bond number 246JD came out twice for the same person from West Sussex winning 25k+5k (bond amount just over 39k)  Coincidence or bias? Tend to think the latter.

What an amazing coincidence!

Yes it is!  In my case I have a few small bonds but three come out regularly more than just coincidence (4k, 3k, 2k). Other bonds of similar amounts either didn't win or returned £25 over 12months. I've cashed those in and bought new bonds in draw 1 April, will see how they do.!

Which is more likely.

Surprising examples of coincidence or the draw is not random?

What is 100% not subject to chance is that for the 30 or so days after buying bonds, they will neither win nor earn any interest elsewhere..

Gary1984

I don't think people understand randomness. In a probability lecture, the lecturer told half of us to flip a coin 30 times and record the series of H/T and the other half to make up a believable series as if we had flipped the coin. With one exception I think the lecturer correctly identified which were the real random sequences and which were made up.

The made up ones were just a bit too ordered. He identified the random ones by finding sequences of five of the same outcome in a row, which would be expected to occur within 30 tosses. The made up ones always made sure to switch from a H to a T or back every 3 or 4 at the most as they thought long sequences the same didn't look 'random enough'.