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  • mandarin6
    mandarin6 Posts: 40 Forumite
    Second Anniversary 10 Posts
    Somewhere in NSI archives which I read last year (will find again if I can and paste), they admitted that E4 was showing bias and was one of the reasons it had to be replaced. I've also discovered doing a quick trawl  that some bonds particularly those with PP as their letters have been drawn consistently each month. One lucky holder of a small bond won 25k two months in a row. I'm sure there are more examples but nothing will convince me that E5 isn't showing bias to certain letters.
  • masonic
    masonic Posts: 27,356 Forumite
    Part of the Furniture 10,000 Posts Photogenic Name Dropper
    mandarin6 said:
    Somewhere in NSI archives which I read last year (will find again if I can and paste), they admitted that E4 was showing bias and was one of the reasons it had to be replaced. I've also discovered doing a quick trawl  that some bonds particularly those with PP as their letters have been drawn consistently each month. One lucky holder of a small bond won 25k two months in a row. I'm sure there are more examples but nothing will convince me that E5 isn't showing bias to certain letters.
    Fortunately bias is easier to prove than randomness.
  • eskbanker
    eskbanker Posts: 37,354 Forumite
    Part of the Furniture 10,000 Posts Name Dropper Photogenic
    mandarin6 said:
    Somewhere in NSI archives which I read last year (will find again if I can and paste), they admitted that E4 was showing bias and was one of the reasons it had to be replaced. I've also discovered doing a quick trawl  that some bonds particularly those with PP as their letters have been drawn consistently each month. One lucky holder of a small bond won 25k two months in a row. I'm sure there are more examples but nothing will convince me that E5 isn't showing bias to certain letters.
    You do realise that randomness doesn't actuallymean evenness, i.e. the fact that some subsets will be luckier than others over a specific period doesn't indicate that the draw isn't random or that it's biased?  As with an example quoted earlier in the thread, it would be far more suspicious if every group of letters (or any other way of subdividing) came out evenly.

    Likewise, 'bias to certain letters' is meaningless, as the bonds themselves aren't 'in the draw' as such but random numbers are drawn and then mapped onto bond numbers....

    However, if you're caveatting your comments with "nothing will convince me" then it's clearly a waste of time discussing the facts!
  • mandarin6
    mandarin6 Posts: 40 Forumite
    Second Anniversary 10 Posts
    Not sure I agree about how the numbers are drawn. NSI state each month before the draw we increase the range to include those numbers eligible for that months draw. Namely those numbers issued by that months draw. Therefore not as random as you think, someone is inputting information into E5.



  • IanManc
    IanManc Posts: 2,459 Forumite
    Part of the Furniture 1,000 Posts Photogenic Combo Breaker
    mandarin6 said:
    Not sure I agree about how the numbers are drawn. NSI state each month before the draw we increase the range to include those numbers eligible for that months draw. Namely those numbers issued by that months draw. Therefore not as random as you think, someone is inputting information into E5.



    Please provide a link to where NS&I have ever said that. Thanks.
  • eskbanker
    eskbanker Posts: 37,354 Forumite
    Part of the Furniture 10,000 Posts Name Dropper Photogenic
    mandarin6 said:
    Not sure I agree about how the numbers are drawn. NSI state each month before the draw we increase the range to include those numbers eligible for that months draw. Namely those numbers issued by that months draw. Therefore not as random as you think, someone is inputting information into E5.
    The actual random number generation is separate from the mapping to published bond numbers, as explained on the previously-linked page:
    The behaviour of photons fired through ERNIE 5’s system produces a series of binary outputs, which, like its forebears, are matched with other sensors to generate the Bond numbers that customers are familiar with.
    but the fact that the mapping needs to be updated according to the bonds in circulation doesn't mean that the draw is any less random, if that's what you're trying to argue!
  • I had to look. Ernie 4 ran from April  2004 to February 2019, checking against my databse of numbers, which goes back to January 2011, I checked the Ernie 4 drawn numbers:

    Most frequently drawn letter range is BQ, drawn 453,024 times.
    PP comes in at position 293, drawn  390,184 times.
    Least frequently drawn is ZN, drawn 360,514 times.

    Doing the whole range I have :
    Most frequently drawn letter range is LG, drawn 814,690 times.
    PP comes in at position 268, drawn  732,892 times.
    Least frequently drawn is still ZN, drawn 687,406 times.

    Luckily I don't have any ZN's :)



  • ForumUser7
    ForumUser7 Posts: 2,478 Forumite
    1,000 Posts Second Anniversary Photogenic Name Dropper
    I had to look. Ernie 4 ran from April  2004 to February 2019, checking against my databse of numbers, which goes back to January 2011, I checked the Ernie 4 drawn numbers:

    Most frequently drawn letter range is BQ, drawn 453,024 times.
    PP comes in at position 293, drawn  390,184 times.
    Least frequently drawn is ZN, drawn 360,514 times.

    Doing the whole range I have :
    Most frequently drawn letter range is LG, drawn 814,690 times.
    PP comes in at position 268, drawn  732,892 times.
    Least frequently drawn is still ZN, drawn 687,406 times.

    Luckily I don't have any ZN's :)



    That’s really interesting!

    whereabouts is AE please?
    If you want me to definitely see your reply, please tag me @forumuser7 Thank you.

    N.B. (Amended from Forum Rules): You must investigate, and check several times, before you make any decisions or take any action based on any information you glean from any of my content, as nothing I post is advice, rather it is personal opinion and is solely for discussion purposes. I research before my posts, and I never intend to share anything that is misleading, misinforming, or out of date, but don't rely on everything you read. Some of the information changes quickly, is my own opinion or may be incorrect. Verify anything you read before acting on it to protect yourself because you are responsible for any action you consequently make... DYOR, YMMV etc.
  • I had to look. Ernie 4 ran from April  2004 to February 2019, checking against my databse of numbers, which goes back to January 2011, I checked the Ernie 4 drawn numbers:

    Most frequently drawn letter range is BQ, drawn 453,024 times.
    PP comes in at position 293, drawn  390,184 times.
    Least frequently drawn is ZN, drawn 360,514 times.

    Doing the whole range I have :
    Most frequently drawn letter range is LG, drawn 814,690 times.
    PP comes in at position 268, drawn  732,892 times.
    Least frequently drawn is still ZN, drawn 687,406 times.

    Luckily I don't have any ZN's :)



    That’s really interesting!

    whereabouts is AE please?
    If I had to guess.... somewhere between LG and PP
  • pbcpdeveloper
    pbcpdeveloper Posts: 121 Forumite
    Fourth Anniversary 100 Posts
    edited 27 March 2023 at 9:55PM

    That’s really interesting!

    whereabouts is AE please?
    Oh boy, here we go :) ....AE is 18th (out of 529)


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