Premium Bond Winner ?

justwantedtosay

Podseas said:

Odds of any single bond winning a prize are 1 in 24,000. Currently:
43% of prizes are £25
28% of prizes are £50
28% of prizes are £100
1% of prizes are £500 or more.

So with a full holding of £50,000, you should expect on average 25 prizes a year.

On average 11 will be £25, 7 will be £50 and 7 will be £100 giving a return of £1,325 a year or a return of 2.65%

With a full holding you should expect to win a £500 prize once every 5 years (pushs the expected return to 2.85%)
With a full holding you should expect to win a £1000 prize once every 15 years (pushs the expected return to 2.98%)

Theres a huge amount of variance but that is your expected returns disregarding the very rare prizes over £5k (you would expect to win a £5k prize on a full holding every 160 years and the £1M prize every 100,000 years)

I worked out the timescale figures for myself and agree exactly with all your figures - perhaps my brain isn't as addled as I thought. The other worthwhile figure I calculated was that, as you put it, With a full holding you should expect to win a prize of £500 or more once every 43 months, which I think sounds a lot better than breaking it down into the separate values. I prefer 'in any 5 year period' to 'once every 5 years'.

pbcpdeveloper

Looks like I am owed a few then as I have only ever won 1 £500 prize in 134 months

Stubod

..should be my turn for a £500 win this month then??

BooJewels

I certainly feel as though I've done better since I took 30k out of my max holding.  But as I've only been involved in 11 draws, it's too small of a sample for it to be statistically significant.  But I think my stats show that I've certainly done better more recently - £425 / 13 prizes won in 8 draws with max holding and £225 / 5 prizes in 3 draws with £20k. 

But the most obvious difference in my wins in more recent draws is that the individual wins are of greater value.  Until the December draw, all of my individual wins have been £25 each, but since then, I've had 2 x £100 and 2 x £50.  So I think it's just explained by the better prize fund coinciding with me reducing my holding.

Swipe

To avoid disappointment, I now try to look at anything more than a total of £50 on the max holding as a bonus.

Gers

Some lucky person has won £100K  from a £25.00 bond.  Has a larger holding but it goes to show!

https://www.nsandi.com/prize-checker/winners

BooJewels

I did get momentarily excited when I found one in Lancashire with £25k that matched me exactly, until the fifth digit of the bond number.  Did spot a £5k win with a £100 total holding, so good for them.  On the first page is £100k win from £1000 total holding.  

puddsykit

Checked this months list of high value winners and it looks like i've won £10,000!!! Can't believe it, only held them for about 2 years. :-) Just waiting for conformation tmrw now.

plumb1_2

Are all wins over the £5k and upwards informed the day before ?

SandyN21

Wow... someone has won £10,000 with a holding of just £20 since 1979 😃