Premium Bond Winner ?

eskbanker

justwantedtosay said:

vickyholly said:

Did i dream it , or did i read a few months ago that your odds of winning are higher at 30k than 50 k?

I saw an article just the other day that said your expected return in percentage terms was higher at about 40k [37k?] than 50k.

Can you find it again and post a link?  It shouldn't take long to demonstrate why it's wrong....

justwantedtosay said:
I also read another article that said the government has told NS&I to raise a lot more cash and that the prize fund would go up very soon. Let's hope they got that one right.

The 2023/24 NS&I net financing target was set in the spring budget and is £7.5bn +/- £3bn, not hugely different from 2022/23's £6bn +/- £3bn....

https://nsandi-corporate.com/news-research/news/nsi-provisional-q3-2022-23-results-and-2023-24-net-financing-target#

Sarahspangles

retiringtoosoon said:

TadleyBaggie said:

Strangely, over the last few months I've won considerably more (holding 30K) than my wife who had 50K. Must just be a quirk.

Well that cant be right as £50k > £30k!

I call shenanigans....

Not ‘right’, but statistically possible!  I’d be pretty grumpy if it hadn’t evened out over a timescale of a few years though.

vickyholly

justwantedtosay said:

vickyholly said:

Did i dream it , or did i read a few months ago that your odds of winning are higher at 30k than 50 k?

I saw an article just the other day that said your expected return in percentage terms was higher at about 40k [37k?] than 50k. In cash terms, I guess the more you have the more you should win, though it doesn't seem to be working that way for me. I take the expected rate to be 2.65%, and anything better is a bonus.

Thanks , Glad im not the only one to have read the article. I cant find it again, so assume its been discounted now. I was tempted to remove some money into a savings account. 

Podseas

Odds of any single bond winning a prize are 1 in 24,000. Currently:
43% of prizes are £25
28% of prizes are £50
28% of prizes are £100
1% of prizes are £500 or more.

So with a full holding of £50,000, you should expect on average 25 prizes a year.

On average 11 will be £25, 7 will be £50 and 7 will be £100 giving a return of £1,325 a year or a return of 2.65%

With a full holding you should expect to win a £500 prize once every 5 years (pushs the expected return to 2.85%)
With a full holding you should expect to win a £1000 prize once every 15 years (pushs the expected return to 2.98%)

Theres a huge amount of variance but that is your expected returns disregarding the very rare prizes over £5k (you would expect to win a £5k prize on a full holding every 160 years and the £1M prize every 100,000 years)

justwantedtosay

eskbanker said:

justwantedtosay said:

vickyholly said:

Did i dream it , or did i read a few months ago that your odds of winning are higher at 30k than 50 k?

I saw an article just the other day that said your expected return in percentage terms was higher at about 40k [37k?] than 50k.

Can you find it again and post a link?  It shouldn't take long to demonstrate why it's wrong....

justwantedtosay said:
I also read another article that said the government has told NS&I to raise a lot more cash and that the prize fund would go up very soon. Let's hope they got that one right.

The 2023/24 NS&I net financing target was set in the spring budget and is £7.5bn +/- £3bn, not hugely different from 2022/23's £6bn +/- £3bn....

https://nsandi-corporate.com/news-research/news/nsi-provisional-q3-2022-23-results-and-2023-24-net-financing-target#

It looks as though both 'facts' came from the same article, unless there's one I can't find, but the lack of any thought in its writing is demonstrated by saying in March that "Any changes to the Premium Bonds “prize rate” would likely come into effect from the next draw in April at the earliest" - as if it could come into effect any earlier. It looks as though I rather misremembered it; it was actually supposed to be a table of the chance of winning more than 3% with various holdings. There's nothing saying how this was worked out so there's no point reading it;

1,000	24.5%
1,881	32.9%
7,500	39.9%
15,000	40.0%
25,000	38.9%
35,000	41.5%
45,000	40.2%
50,001[!?]	36.2%

Another magnificently stupid article - Express - said, "On their website, NS&I has shared how Britons can boost their chances of winning." and then revealed the secret was that "The only thing that can increase your chances of winning is holding more Premium Bonds." Bet you're glad they shared that pearl of wisdom with us.

I was just googling in the hope that the rate had gone up after the last BoE rise.

Looks like I didn't win the jackpot this month. There's a surprise.

justwantedtosay

Podseas said:

Odds of any single bond winning a prize are 1 in 24,000. Currently:
43% of prizes are £25
28% of prizes are £50
28% of prizes are £100
1% of prizes are £500 or more.

So with a full holding of £50,000, you should expect on average 25 prizes a year.

On average 11 will be £25, 7 will be £50 and 7 will be £100 giving a return of £1,325 a year or a return of 2.65%

With a full holding you should expect to win a £500 prize once every 5 years (pushs the expected return to 2.85%)
With a full holding you should expect to win a £1000 prize once every 15 years (pushs the expected return to 2.98%)

Theres a huge amount of variance but that is your expected returns disregarding the very rare prizes over £5k (you would expect to win a £5k prize on a full holding every 160 years and the £1M prize every 100,000 years)

I worked out the timescale figures for myself and agree exactly with all your figures - perhaps my brain isn't as addled as I thought. The other worthwhile figure I calculated was that, as you put it, With a full holding you should expect to win a prize of £500 or more once every 43 months, which I think sounds a lot better than breaking it down into the separate values. I prefer 'in any 5 year period' to 'once every 5 years'.

pbcpdeveloper

Looks like I am owed a few then as I have only ever won 1 £500 prize in 134 months

Stubod

..should be my turn for a £500 win this month then??

BooJewels

I certainly feel as though I've done better since I took 30k out of my max holding.  But as I've only been involved in 11 draws, it's too small of a sample for it to be statistically significant.  But I think my stats show that I've certainly done better more recently - £425 / 13 prizes won in 8 draws with max holding and £225 / 5 prizes in 3 draws with £20k. 

But the most obvious difference in my wins in more recent draws is that the individual wins are of greater value.  Until the December draw, all of my individual wins have been £25 each, but since then, I've had 2 x £100 and 2 x £50.  So I think it's just explained by the better prize fund coinciding with me reducing my holding.

Swipe

To avoid disappointment, I now try to look at anything more than a total of £50 on the max holding as a bonus.