Premium Bond Winner ?

A__L

cricidmuslibale said:

A__L said:

I've had my bonds for over 10 years now. Winnings have been so bad recently. Here are a few examples:

2022: £100

2021: £200

2020: £350

What was the value of your bond holding during these last three years, if you don't mind me asking, please?

Around 30k

A__L

In the past (years ago) I would get at least one £25 per month and probably max £75 in a month. Not very good at all but not sure on the alternatives

strawb_shortcake

My PB anniversary falls in October my winnings since max holding is:

Yr 1 £650
Yr 2 £425
Yr 3 £675 (3 draws)

A__L

annabanana82 said:

My PB anniversary falls in October my winnings since max holding is:

Yr 1 £650
Yr 2 £425
Yr 3 £675 (3 draws)

That's really good!

cricidmuslibale

A__L said:

I've had my bonds for over 10 years now. Winnings have been so bad recently. Here are a few examples:

2022: £100 - c. 0.333%

2021: £200 - c. 0.666%

2020: £350 - c. 1.166%

On c. £ 30k, the effective interest rates you've earned are as noted in bold above. 2020's interest rate is just below the average c. 1.25% return on Premium Bonds that year, 2021's interest rate is certainly further (relatively speaking) below the average c. 0.9% return on Premium Bonds that year. In 2022 the average Premium Bond return was c. 0.9% for the first few months, c. 1.25% for the middle months of the year and then c. 2.0% during the last three months; as you've only earned c. 0.333% during the whole of this year, you've undoubtedly been very unlucky this year in particular!

cricidmuslibale

annabanana82 said:

My PB anniversary falls in October my winnings since max holding is:

Yr 1 £650 - 1.30%
Yr 2 £425 - 0.85%
Yr 3 £675 (3 draws) - 5.40% (for 3 out of 12 draws)

Please see above for the effective interest rate (in bold) you've earned each year.

You've earned significantly more than average luck winnings during your first year - average PB return was c. 1.25% for 2 months, c. 0.9% for the next 10 months - notably less than average luck winnings during your 2nd year - average PB return was c. 0.9% for about 6 months then c. 1.25% up to and including September's draw.

In the first three months of Year 3 you've obviously been very fortunate indeed so far - notwithstanding that, I'm genuinely very happy for you and your family! (Average PB return since October's draw is c. 2.0%!)

Nebulous2

cricidmuslibale said:

Having examined this thread closely since October's draw when NS&I had first increased the prize interest rate to 2.20%, it looks as though quite a few Premium bond holders who regularly contribute to this thread with sizeable holdings (£25,000+) have had consecutive months of winning nothing at all; this has even been the case with several Premium bond holders on here who hold the full £50,000. Indeed in one example above, one very unlucky holder has had four consecutive months of winning nothing at all on a full £50,000 holding!

Now clearly even those with the full £50,000 saved in Premium Bonds are likely in what is effectively a very big national lottery to have a few months a year where they win nothing; that is entirely to be expected, despite the current prize-winning odds of 24,000 to 1 meaning that with average luck, a Premium Bond holder with a full holding will win 25 prizes every 12 months = 2 prizes per month plus 1 extra prize. However, if you have £50,000 saved in Premium Bonds and then win nothing at all for 3, 4 or even more months in a row, whilst it's still entirely feasible this is now starting to become significantly unlucky to the extent that it is also starting to become just a tad unfair in my opinion.

Obviously the main reason this considerable unevenness of prize distribution happens with Premium Bonds is because there is an awful lot of Premium Bond holders even with a full £50,000 holding out there right now, and as quite a lot of them will be lucky enough to win 4 to 5 or even more prizes in any particular month, naturally quite a lot will in the same month be unlucky enough to win 1 or 0 prizes whilst the current 24,000 to 1 prize-winning odds is maintained. That is where imo NS&I got it badly wrong with the last increase in prize interest rate from 1.40% to 2.20% in time for the October draw, in that the prize-winning odds barely improved at all from 24,500 to 1 to 24,000 to 1 when one would naturally expect a significant increase in prize interest rate to also lead to a significant improvement in the prize-winning odds.

In conclusion, if NS&I do make a further increase to the prize interest rate within the next 3 months or so due to interest rates generally (apart from on fixed rate accounts) continuing to rise in the short term, they really should at the same time take the opportunity to significantly improve the prize-winning odds to bring them much closer to 20,000 to 1. If they're not inclined to do this, even though it would be very much in the interest of fairness to do so, they should at least consider increasing the maximum Premium Bond holding from £50,000 to £60,000. Either of (or ideally both of) these measures - I'm certainly not expecting both to happen, I'd be delighted if just one of them does! - would make it significantly less likely that a Premium Bond holder with the maximum allowed holding will be unfortunate enough to win nothing at all for 3, 4 or even more months in a row when others with the same full holding are winning 4, 5 or even more prizes during several consecutive months!

That's a good, thought - provoking post. I did wonder at the emphasis on increasing bigger prizes (£50 and £100) with the last hike, rather than increasing the number of prizes with £25 ones. That will increase disparity in returns over a single month. 

'Fairness' and random draws don't go together however.  We had one person on here, if I remember correctly, claiming they hadn't had a win in 9 months on a maximum holding. I've had PBs for about 20 months now and have gone 3 months in a row without a win on £40k, but I also had a £1000 win fairly early on, which is rare. 

We are using PBs as our cash reserve, pot for home repairs, and to carry us through to state pension age, so expect to draw them down over the next few years - therefore an increased maximum would have no attraction for me. In fact I'm quite pleased at how little we've had to withdraw so far. 

Ifts

2 x £25 on full holding for December...

I received the "you've just won!" email from NS&I today (3rd) - which is a little earlier in the month than normal.
And credited to my Santander account on 8th December.

Dorian1958

Sorry to be that guy who has had more than average luck.  I guess next year statistics and the luck of the draw will turn against me, time to opt out maybe?  Maximum holdings for the last 3 years:

2022:  Jan £25, Feb £25, March £75, April £650 (includes a £500), May £25, Jun £100, Jul £25, Aug £75, Sep £50, Oct £150, Nov £1025 (includes a £1000), Dec £175.  Total:  £2425

2021:  Total:  £475

2020:  Total: £1500 (boosted by a £1000 win in December)

BooJewels

Well done @Dorian1958 - at last I now know who's getting my share!  I make that nearly 5% for 2022 - I haven't hit 1% yet.