Premium Bond Winner ?

fly-catchers

pbcpdeveloper said:

MumOf2 said:

Well, I'm quite pleased so far.  £50,000 holding, first draw March:
March - £75
April - £25
May - £125
So £200 in three months, 0.4%.

I make that £225

Also is she MumOf2 or MumOf4!

scottiescott

First draw for me. Won £50 on £50k holding. Good start.

waveydavey48

£25 on 2 x £50k. Hmmm

lozzy1965

This thread always makes me chuckle, as it pops up for the first week of every month.  Is the OP analysing all the results still?  If so, perhaps an update on findings would be nice.  TBH though I haven't trawled back through the pages and pages of £25 for me £50 for me etc etc to see if any analysis has been done

eskbanker

lozzy1965 said:

This thread always makes me chuckle, as it pops up for the first week of every month.  Is the OP analysing all the results still?  If so, perhaps an update on findings would be nice.  TBH though I haven't trawled back through the pages and pages of £25 for me £50 for me etc etc to see if any analysis has been done

Since OP hasn't been on the forum since 2012, you'd have to go back a long way to find any analysis they did!  In any case, they were just looking for validation of the tired old trope that newer bonds win more - those who believe they have 'evidence' of this crop up fairly regularly (one as recently as the day before yesterday) but of course it's no more than confirmation bias.  In any case, very few posters actually highlight the purchase date of winning bonds when they trot out their results....

lozzy1965

eskbanker said:

Since OP hasn't been on the forum since 2012, you'd have to go back a long way to find any analysis they did!  In any case, they were just looking for validation of the tired old trope that newer bonds win more - those who believe they have 'evidence' of this crop up fairly regularly (one as recently as the day before yesterday) but of course it's no more than confirmation bias.  In any case, very few posters actually highlight the purchase date of winning bonds when they trot out their results....

Wow.  I'm chuckling even more now, but then I am easily amused, and lazy apparently, as I didn't notice just how long the thread had been going! 
Should I say ...
£50K for me: £25 first month, £25 second month, not checked this month - so assume I am not a millionaire yet.
£50K for wife:  £50 first month, 0 second month, £25 this month.
... or should I stop perpetuating this apparently redundant thread?

Eco_Miser

thegentleway said:

eskbanker said:

josh33 said:
There is a note on the calculator saying:

"We use an estimate of the 'median average'. This means if everyone with £1,000 in bonds stood in ascending order of amount won, the person in the middle of the line has 'average luck'."

So that implies that many, many people will have below average luck and win far less than the calculator predicts.

Of course, that's how averages work!  There will also be many, many people with above average luck....

Indeed. However, according to the calculator, they will normally be more people with below average luck than above. E.g. on max holding for a year:
45.7% will get < £450
16.5% will get the median = £450
37.8% will get > £450

EDIT: more importantly 54.3% will get £450 or more so the majority will get the median or more, which I think is the more useful way to look at it.

Half the people will have below median luck, and half will have above median luck, that's the definition of median.

However the people either side of the median also win the same amount as the person with median luck, meaning that less than half get below median payout, or above median payout. The median person is not in the middle of the band of people winning £450, because the distribution is extremely skewed towards lower winnings.

thegentleway

Eco_Miser said:

thegentleway said:

eskbanker said:

josh33 said:
There is a note on the calculator saying:

"We use an estimate of the 'median average'. This means if everyone with £1,000 in bonds stood in ascending order of amount won, the person in the middle of the line has 'average luck'."

So that implies that many, many people will have below average luck and win far less than the calculator predicts.

Of course, that's how averages work!  There will also be many, many people with above average luck....

Indeed. However, according to the calculator, they will normally be more people with below average luck than above. E.g. on max holding for a year:
45.7% will get < £450
16.5% will get the median = £450
37.8% will get > £450

EDIT: more importantly 54.3% will get £450 or more so the majority will get the median or more, which I think is the more useful way to look at it.

Half the people will have below median luck, and half will have above median luck, that's the definition of median.

However the people either side of the median also win the same amount as the person with median luck, meaning that less than half get below median payout, or above median payout. The median person is not in the middle of the band of people winning £450, because the distribution is extremely skewed towards lower winnings.

I don’t think it any makes sense to say people that get the same amount have different amounts of luck!

Eco_Miser

thegentleway said:

Eco_Miser said:

thegentleway said:

eskbanker said:

josh33 said:
There is a note on the calculator saying:

"We use an estimate of the 'median average'. This means if everyone with £1,000 in bonds stood in ascending order of amount won, the person in the middle of the line has 'average luck'."

So that implies that many, many people will have below average luck and win far less than the calculator predicts.

Of course, that's how averages work!  There will also be many, many people with above average luck....

Indeed. However, according to the calculator, they will normally be more people with below average luck than above. E.g. on max holding for a year:
45.7% will get < £450
16.5% will get the median = £450
37.8% will get > £450

EDIT: more importantly 54.3% will get £450 or more so the majority will get the median or more, which I think is the more useful way to look at it.

Half the people will have below median luck, and half will have above median luck, that's the definition of median.

However the people either side of the median also win the same amount as the person with median luck, meaning that less than half get below median payout, or above median payout. The median person is not in the middle of the band of people winning £450, because the distribution is extremely skewed towards lower winnings.

I don’t think it any makes sense to say people that get the same amount have different amounts of luck!

You're right.

Half the people have less or equal luck to the median, and half have more or equal luck, by the definition of median. But since the 'equal to the median' band is wide and both side of the median, actually more than half the people have less or equal luck to the median, and more than half have more or equal luck.  That doesn't sound right either.

Swipe

lozzy1965 said:

eskbanker said:

Since OP hasn't been on the forum since 2012, you'd have to go back a long way to find any analysis they did!  In any case, they were just looking for validation of the tired old trope that newer bonds win more - those who believe they have 'evidence' of this crop up fairly regularly (one as recently as the day before yesterday) but of course it's no more than confirmation bias.  In any case, very few posters actually highlight the purchase date of winning bonds when they trot out their results....

... or should I stop perpetuating this apparently redundant thread?

Judging by the amount of posts each month it's hardly redundant, at least not for me. I enjoy reading through and seeing how much posters have won on their holdings compared to mine.