Premium Bond Winner ?

micklemuckle

Thanks Primrose and eskbanker, I have changed the option to paying any winnings to my bank account. I will give it a day or 2 and see what happens. I usually get an email to notify me of any winnings but have not had one yet. Cheers

Senseicads

£75 won this month on £19k invested. 

metrobus

£50000 invested nothing the last 3 months.
What's the odds on that?
No chance at all this is random.
Wherever you have a human input to something with a financial gain you will get the probability of fraud.

Swipe

metrobus said:

£50000 invested nothing the last 3 months.
What's the odds on that?
No chance at all this is random.
Wherever you have a human input to something with a financial gain you will get the probability of fraud.

You must be one of the unluckiest people on here

eskbanker

metrobus said:

£50000 invested nothing the last 3 months.
What's the odds on that?
No chance at all this is random.
Wherever you have a human input to something with a financial gain you will get the probability of fraud.

The odds are 1.29% according to the MSE calculator, so unlucky but not freakishly so....

lr1277

Nothing on a £32k holding.

josh33

metrobus said:

£50000 invested nothing the last 3 months.
What's the odds on that?
No chance at all this is random.
Wherever you have a human input to something with a financial gain you will get the probability of fraud.

I know, it's so frustrating. I had zero wins on £50k for 12 consecutive months, then a £25 win, then 6 months of zero wins again. It felt like my bonds weren't even being entered into the draw. According to the MSE calculator (which I take with a heavy pinch of salt despite its underlying mathematics), my luck was virtually impossible, and I should have expected £250 with virtual certainty, with a 93% chance, i.e. very high chance of getting more than £500. After 18 months I finally won again and got £5,000, with several £25's thrown in too. There is a note on the calculator saying:

"We use an estimate of the 'median average'. This means if everyone with £1,000 in bonds stood in ascending order of amount won, the person in the middle of the line has 'average luck'."

So that implies that many, many people will have below average luck and win far less than the calculator predicts.

mersey

£25 this month.

eskbanker

josh33 said:
There is a note on the calculator saying:

"We use an estimate of the 'median average'. This means if everyone with £1,000 in bonds stood in ascending order of amount won, the person in the middle of the line has 'average luck'."

So that implies that many, many people will have below average luck and win far less than the calculator predicts.

Of course, that's how averages work!  There will also be many, many people with above average luck....

thegentleway

eskbanker said:

josh33 said:
There is a note on the calculator saying:

"We use an estimate of the 'median average'. This means if everyone with £1,000 in bonds stood in ascending order of amount won, the person in the middle of the line has 'average luck'."

So that implies that many, many people will have below average luck and win far less than the calculator predicts.

Of course, that's how averages work!  There will also be many, many people with above average luck....

Indeed. However, according to the calculator, they will normally be more people with below average luck than above. E.g. on max holding for a year:
45.7% will get < £450
16.5% will get the median = £450
37.8% will get > £450

EDIT: more importantly 54.3% will get £450 or more so the majority will get the median or more, which I think is the more useful way to look at it.