Premium Bond Winner ?

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£50 on max holding (1.4% return on the last 6 months)

zenshi

I’ve had £700 in since May 2020 and have had 3 x £25

JGal

Have only won 1 month this financial year on a full holding. By far the worst run in last 6 years where I'd only ever gone two consecutive months without a prize on two occasions. It's almost as if the prize fund rate plummeted in May,

pbcpdeveloper

JGal said:

Have only won 1 month this financial year on a full holding. By far the worst run in last 6 years where I'd only ever gone two consecutive months without a prize on two occasions. It's almost as if the prize fund rate plummeted in May,

I suppose it can happen but its difficult to believe.  The full limit is 50k and you have held that amount with the same numbers since 2015 (when the 50k limit came in) ?

JGal

pbcpdeveloper said:

JGal said:

Have only won 1 month this financial year on a full holding. By far the worst run in last 6 years where I'd only ever gone two consecutive months without a prize on two occasions. It's almost as if the prize fund rate plummeted in May,

I suppose it can happen but its difficult to believe.  The full limit is 50k and you have held that amount with the same numbers since 2015 (when the 50k limit came in) ?

Yep. 30k from June 2014, 40k from Sept 2014, 50k from Aug 2015.

cricidmuslibale

I had a period of 3 out of 4 months winning nothing at all this summer on a full holding. I thought at the time that ERNIE was failing to include my numbers in the monthly draw even though one would think that would be impossible. So I do kind of see where you are coming from and very much sympathise! [Especially as before 24th November with average luck, one would have expected to win just over 2 prizes per month on average with a full holding, the prize-winning odds being 24500 to 1 until 24th Nov, 34500 to 1 now.]

cricidmuslibale

One crucial thing to bear in mind though, Premium Bonds became very attractive from last spring to 24th November with the rate of 1.4% not being reduced at all whereas most other non-NS&I interest rates were reduced significantly after the Bank of England base rate cut to 0.1%. So a lot of people may well have increased their holding in Premium Bonds considerably or indeed invested in Premium Bonds for the very 1st time from last spring onwards. The more money that is invested in Premium Bonds in total, the less likely it is that with investing the full £50,000 you will necessarily receive an average of 2 prizes per month before 24th Nov, 1.5 prizes per month now, over say a span of just a few months. The longer you keep money in Premium Bonds though the more likely it is that you will receive roughly the average number of prizes one would expect per year which now is I believe either 17 or 18 (mostly £25 prizes) on a full holding.

pbcpdeveloper

Thats partially correct, the number of people investing in Premium Bonds (or the number of bonds bought) has increased a lot recently like you say, but this is catered for because the number of prizes drawn is increased in line with this to maintain their target % rate.    This month of course they reduced the target rate by drawing 1 million less bond numbers.

eskbanker

cricidmuslibale said:

The more money that is invested in Premium Bonds in total, the less likely it is that with investing the full £50,000 you will necessarily receive an average of 2 prizes per month before 24th Nov, 1.5 prizes per month now, over say a span of just a few months.

Each month's prize fund is adjusted to remain at a set percentage of the issued bonds (preserving the 1 in 34,500 chance of winning), so increases in the total number of issued bonds makes no difference to an individual's chances of winning (other than insignificantly infinitesimal fractions associated with very minor changes to the exact mix of prizes)!  Obviously that prize fund percentage has just changed but that's a different issue....

cricidmuslibale

eskbanker said:

cricidmuslibale said:

The more money that is invested in Premium Bonds in total, the less likely it is that with investing the full £50,000 you will necessarily receive an average of 2 prizes per month before 24th Nov, 1.5 prizes per month now, over say a span of just a few months.

Each month's prize fund is adjusted to remain at a set percentage of the issued bonds (preserving the 1 in 34,500 chance of winning), so increases in the total number of issued bonds makes no difference to an individual's chances of winning (other than insignificantly infinitesimal fractions associated with very minor changes to the exact mix of prizes)!  Obviously that prize fund percentage has just changed but that's a different issue....

I agree that the total number of issued bonds makes no difference to an individual's chances of winnings and I know the following will probably never happen but let's say Premium Bonds were to become so unattractive for whatever reason(s) that most of the money invested in them was removed / only a few active bond numbers remained. Then, anyone with the few remaining bond numbers would be very likely indeed to win the no. of prizes they were most likely to win each month i.e. the average no. of prizes expected per month depending on the then odds of winning any prize and the total no. of bond numbers that individual held. With many Premium Bond numbers in total circulation as is the case at the moment, it is considerably more likely that over a short span of say a few months, even someone with the max £50,000 presently permitted may get very unlucky and win far fewer than the current average return of just under 1.5 prizes per month derived from the prize-winning odds at the moment of 34500 to 1. (Or, of course they may get very lucky and win far more!)