Premium Bond Winner ?

Ken68

£100 won this month...now 1.65% since topping up on Jan 28th last year .

polymaff

Niiiita wrote: »

Hello I have been doing an experiment over the past year and every time I win I invest more money up to the nearest 100. I gave won £25 8 times this year. Each time I invest I win £25 the following month. Whereas I have held a static amount for about 8 years previously and won twice . I don’t think that is a coincidence. I’ve just won again after a top up investment of £75.

How much is the "static amount"?


And, errr, 75 is not a "nearest 100"...:)

Niiiita

Apologies I thought I was clear .. I top it up to the nearest £100 .not by a £100. . The static amount prior to me starting this experiment was £3500. I invested £500 at the start of the year , then £300 and then 8 lots of £75 after each win of £25. The months I didn’t invest I didn’t win.

fly-catchers

Nothing on £15000. Just one win of £25 in September. And an earlier £25 in April on £3000. Before them no wins over 61 years! But only had £2 worth of bonds over that time!

polymaff

Niiiita wrote: »

Apologies I thought I was clear .. I top it up to the nearest £100 .not by a £100. . The static amount prior to me starting this experiment was £3500. I invested £500 at the start of the year , then £300 and then 8 lots of £75 after each win of £25. The months I didn’t invest I didn’t win.

Just sanity testing.

If your static amount had been only £50, then the only thing to comment on would be your good luck in just having achieved an annual return of £200 on about £900 staked. Even with the static amount you mention, £250 compensates you for quite a few of the earlier eight years.

There have been doubts about PB bias since PBs were launched. Most of the discussions centre around the fruitless issue of whether the random number generator is not, indeed, random. I can see the sort of bias you suggest in both my and Mrs. P's accounts - but it is amazing how good we are at seeing patterns.

I guess that carrying on your current strategy for, say, 10 years is the only way to stengthen or rebut your case.

By the way, I'm not saying you are wrong. The ones who are, provenly, wrong when it comes to interactions with arithmetic, logic or the law - is the shambles that is NS&I.

davidwatts

Niiiita wrote: »

Hello I have been doing an experiment over the past year and every time I win I invest more money up to the nearest 100. I gave won £25 8 times this year. Each time I invest I win £25 the following month. Whereas I have held a static amount for about 8 years previously and won twice . I don’t think that is a coincidence. I’ve just won again after a top up investment of £75.

I do! Let's face it, either you're not giving us an entirely accurate picture (as you've done well to have won 8 prizes in a year on such a modest holding), you've just had a lucky run or (and trust me, this is as likely as Elvis being discovered alive and becoming the next Pope) you've cunningly discovered that investing £75 guarantees you a prize the following month!

Having written that, I check my own records and see that I won something every month after purchasing new bonds! :rotfl:

Unsurprisingly, that doesn't change my mind (I only made 5 purchases and have won in 58 of the 70 draws I've held bonds in, nearly 83%).

If you come back in 12 months and tell us that the pattern has continued I'd have to concede that would make a convincing case but, frankly, I simply wouldn't believe you (or anyone making the same claim) without evidence.

abgrad

JIL wrote: »

Mine have scooped me exactly £550 on £50,000.

That's me done the £50,000 is in the process of being withdrawn to pay for a new house!

Congratulations on new house!
Was that £550 in a month?! Or over the year?

abgrad

First month having max (correction £49500) holding (have had no money in for many years) and got £125 (5x£25) which I think is really great! I'm so chuffed. So I'm happy with that. Now off to try and sort out an account with first direct (just realised I can't get that) to get another £100 with them having got £175 last month for the HSBC switch. Still unemployed at the moment so enjoying making/winning some money.

I assumed everyone would get the winnings email at the same time but it seems not as some people were posting on here yesterday, unless they just knew to look at their account?!

I don't know how long I'll have the money in, will need most of it for flat deposit hopefully later in the year.

Bought running shoes yesterday so that basically was my win spent!

Niiiita

I have no idea what you think I gain by lying . I came onto this forum today to see whether anyone else was having the same luck . I’m not interested in proving anything to you .. it’s my money after all. I was just sharing what I have discovered after a year of investing as I have . Good luck to you ! Thanks

Niiiita

Yes while i carry on winning I will continue with this formula .. I’m glad you don’t think I’m telling porkies like the other guy !