Premium Bond Winner ?

polymaff

talexuser wrote: »

... I know there is no basis for this but I always had the impression whenever I topped up I had a run of prizes, which then seemed to settle down.

It wouldn't surprise me, though, if there were something wrong in the process. NS&I's history of serious misunderstandings of their responsibilities leaves one in some doubt.

concorde1966

I have £11,325 invested and have won £125 sine Jan this year. My friend invested £10,000 six months ago and has only won £25?

eskbanker

concorde1966 wrote: »

I have £11,325 invested and have won £125 sine Jan this year. My friend invested £10,000 six months ago and has only won £25?

The words suggest a statement but the question mark suggests a question!

If the question was "have I achieved an above average return while my friend has been below average?" then the answer is "yes, that's the nature of random draws".

talexuser

Sunday Telegraph has interview with Dame Stephanie Shirley, software pioneer who once worked at Dollis Hill after the war and had a hand in designing the randomness of Ernie in the early days. She claims to have put £20,000 into Premium Bonds (the maximum at the time), and over the years has got £40,000 back. Given she is now 85 is this feasable given the odds over the years (no timescale metioned but I think bonds started around 1956)?

polymaff

As an initial sanity check, the current rate of return over 50 years ( 1.014 ^ 50 ) is almost exactly 2 - so that fits the £40k on £20k bit.


To go further you'd have to know the interest rates over the period.


And how someone working at Dollis Hill managed to save £20k in those days..:)

MisterMotivated

talexuser wrote:

... I know there is no basis for this but I always had the impression whenever I topped up I had a run of prizes, which then seemed to settle down.

I was winning above average until I increased my holdings to over double what it used to be. Now I haven't won anything in the past 3 months. I've decided to give it 3 more draws to get something otherwise the whole lot is going into a savings account instead.

talexuser

polymaff wrote: »

And how someone working at Dollis Hill managed to save £20k in those days..:)

Yes, she set up her own company, but still 20K in the 50s was an absolute fortune... average house price 2K?

taylornj

3 x £25 wins on £50k.

tappet_rattle

^ ditto for me this month

jaydeejay

2 x £25 for me this month on £50k