Premium Bond Winner ?

trademark

im going to encash 15k then re-invest , that way i stay in the draw

but which half ? .......

Barnetbear

Premium Bonds interest rate currently 3.8%

Given how many people on here have reported no win last 3 or so months, sounds like there's been a flood of new investors in to PBs meaning less chance of winning (as surely the more bonds bought by others then the less chance there is of yours being drawn as one of the first 1,660,731 prizes (the first live bond numbers that correspond to the first 1,660,731 prizes win of course).

When I sold mine, I kept the one block that hadn't won even a £50. That didn't win in subsequent months either.

Jonbvn

Barnetbear wrote: »

Premium Bonds interest rate currently 3.8%

Given how many people on here have reported no win last 3 or so months, sounds like there's been a flood of new investors in to PBs meaning less chance of winning (as surely the more bonds bought by others then the less chance there is of yours being drawn as one of the first 1,660,731 prizes (the first live bond numbers that correspond to the first 1,660,731 prizes win of course).
.

The amount of bonds/holders does not change your chance of winning. Only changes to the % rate offered by NS&I (ATM 3.8%) change your chances. Remember the total payout per year (winnings) is just 3.8% of the total amount of money held in PB's.

Jonbvn

ali1972 wrote: »

Well, I'm flabberghasted. I have a modest holding of about £1440 (bought recently in dribs and drabs) and I've just had my 4th £50 win (all over the last year). It seems I've got a tax free rate of return of about 14% at the moment. Makes me chuckle seeing as I hardly have a big investment!

Stories such as this are the reason why such a huge amount of money is invested in PB's. As an opposite situation, I have held more than 10x that amount of PB's over the same period and have only won £50......

You pays your money, you takes your pick.

JohnDep_2

I have had about £900 for nearly 10 years... won nothing.

whereas my cousin had £300 for 2 months and won £500... lucky bath-tub!

Im thinking about pulling the plug and sticking it with my other savings in my 5.75% saving acc (I know not best rate but I can instantly move cash between savings and student account... with the overdraft in the savings!)

For m 21st my parents are giving me cash for a brand spanking new car (although i might go for a second hand better one)

Im thinking with inflation being a bit high (my student loan is 4% odd... shock horror!) just give in with the prem bonds!

My family are addicted by them.. they all have maxxed out limits and win every month!

fonzy8

Initial £4000 invested in 2004
2 x £50 in 2004
3 x £50 + 1 x £100 in 2005
3 x £50 in 2006
2 x £50 + 1 x £100 + Sold £2000 just before 1 win in 2007

Not really been when I've bought or anything - just drip feeding wins - but there have been times I haven't heard from ERNIE for ages, go and check past winnings on the website and then end up with a win in the next couple of months! It's almost like I remind the machine I've still got some bonds :-)
or most likely it's just coincidence.....

djbd1973

fonzy8 wrote: »

Not really been when I've bought or anything - just drip feeding wins - but there have been times I haven't heard from ERNIE for ages, go and check past winnings on the website and then end up with a win in the next couple of months! It's almost like I remind the machine I've still got some bonds :-)
or most likely it's just coincidence.....

I like that.

I think I'll have a word in 'Ernie's' ear and persuade it to pass my palm with silver!

mayb_2

When I sold mine, I kept the one block that hadn't won even a £50. That didn't win in subsequent months either.

I have to ask the question Barnetbear - what made you keep the bonds that nad never won anything?

Barnetbear

Jonbvn wrote: »

The amount of bonds/holders does not change your chance of winning. Only changes to the % rate offered by NS&I (ATM 3.8%) change your chances. Remember the total payout per year (winnings) is just 3.8% of the total amount of money held in PB's.

But also the more bonds that are 'live'/held by people the less chance there is of winning. Why? Because ERNIE draws numbers whether the numbers are live (ie bought) or not. When a bond is not held no prize is won and the prize is allocated to the next live bond until all the prizes are issued for that month's draw. Hence the more held bonds rather than unheld (ie not sold) bonds then the more held bonds there are which have to be paid if drawn before yours. Prizes are paid on a first live bond drawn first paid basis - if there are more live bonds then there's less chance ERNIE will continue drawing until he gets to yours or mine since a larger number of new live bonds means there's less unhelds to skip over. Whether random chance says yours or mine may be drawn early enough or not is something different.

Barnetbear

mayb wrote: »

I have to ask the question Barnetbear - what made you keep the bonds that nad never won anything?

Just the hope that the law of averages would perhaps say they were due a win as they'd not won before. And maybe they would eventually, just like all sides of a die will come up eventually but may well show illusory bias for 100s or 1000s of throws consecutively.