Premium Bond Winner ?

silverwhistle

polymaff said:

I'm quite shocked to see you move from the curious to the jeering; from the self-questioning to the insulting.

As opposed to yourself who was patronisingly insulting to " the man in the street".

Next FY my financial situation will be changing in a significant way (for me) and I'm considering topping up to a full holding. The number of prizes is irrelevant to me and the bottom line is the interest rate, with the hope that my luck is at least average. With a smaller holding the number of prizes might be more relevant, but either way I'm be taking action with my eyes open.

RG2015

Now don’t get me wrong here, I’m loving this. Like my good friend Data the android once said, “Please continue the petty bickering”

But Premium Bonds are not about the odds of winning. It’s all about the possibility of winning big.

If I followed the odds, I would stick to a guaranteed income based on the interest.

eskbanker

RG2015 said:

Now don’t get me wrong here, I’m loving this. Like my good friend Data the android once said, “Please continue the petty bickering”

But Premium Bonds are not about the odds of winning. It’s all about the possibility of winning big.

If I followed the odds, I would stick to a guaranteed income based on the interest.

At the risk of rising to the bait again, I don't think it's valid to generalise in that way!  Some are undoubtedly influenced by the (remote) possibility of winning big, but others are happy to use them as a tax-free savings product that may be competitive for those who'd pay plenty of tax if deployed elsewhere - obviously returns are inherently variable, but this effect is moderated for those retaining large holdings for lengthy periods of time and who thereby converge towards the average....

GrubbyGirl_2

eskbanker said:

RG2015 said:

Now don’t get me wrong here, I’m loving this. Like my good friend Data the android once said, “Please continue the petty bickering”

But Premium Bonds are not about the odds of winning. It’s all about the possibility of winning big.

If I followed the odds, I would stick to a guaranteed income based on the interest.

At the risk of rising to the bait again, I don't think it's valid to generalise in that way!  Some are undoubtedly influenced by the (remote) possibility of winning big, but others are happy to use them as a tax-free savings product that may be competitive for those who'd pay plenty of tax if deployed elsewhere - obviously returns are inherently variable, but this effect is moderated for those retaining large holdings for lengthy periods of time and who thereby converge towards the average....

I think you're both right.  I have had a full holding for 12 years in order to reduce my tax impact.  I've kept a note over those 12 years and it is exactly 6 years where my prizes have been less than the interest rate and 6 years where I have been more (including this year where I've already earned more).  The most I have been under is 0.57% and the most I have been over is 1.36%.  I've never had a big prize £500 just once was my biggest, but they have done OK for me.

BUT

It is also the possibility of winning big is also a big factor.  There is nowhere else where you can have a flutter without losing your stake

WindfallWendy

You're right. Without fail, every month, I think "I have a full holding. I'm bound to win big one day. Maybe it will be this month." 

🤞🤞🤞🤞🤞🤞🤞🤞🤞🧐🧐🧐🧐🧐🧐🧐🧐

MACKEM99

WindfallWendy said:

You're right. Without fail, every month, I think "I have a full holding. I'm bound to win big one day. Maybe it will be this month." 

🤞🤞🤞🤞🤞🤞🤞🤞🤞🧐🧐🧐🧐🧐🧐🧐🧐

Or next : or next or next 

fredflower

I've finally got around to updating my spreadsheet. I ended 2024 with a 16.2% return. I won something 5 out of 12 months totalling £725 in reinvested bonds. A very lucky year that started with only £4475 in bonds. 😁

My last win was in October. I just hope my luck hasn't run out. 🤞🍀

WindfallWendy

Does anyone here bother to sell and re-purchase on the expectation that newer bonds are more likely to win???

Martico

WindfallWendy said:

Does anyone here bother to sell and re-purchase on the expectation that newer bonds are more likely to win???

I hope not, they'd be a month out of the draw with no statistical advantage given by their new numbers

Kim_13

WindfallWendy said:

Does anyone here bother to sell and re-purchase on the expectation that newer bonds are more likely to win???

Not for that reason but I have sold and repurchased before, either to combine a number of smaller blocks into a larger one or to fund savings accounts when better options were out there for cash savings that I couldn’t otherwise have funded. If I am doing so I buy on the 31st, preferably of January to lose the smallest time possible.