Premium Bond Winner ?

RG2015

WindfallWendy said:

Does anyone here bother to sell and re-purchase on the expectation that newer bonds are more likely to win???

I would doubt it. Even if you think NS&I are lying when they say every single Premium Bond has an equal chance of winning, one thing is guaranteed. You will have no chance of winning anything in the month following the sell and re-purchase month.

Sarahspangles

WindfallWendy said:

Does anyone here bother to sell and re-purchase on the expectation that newer bonds are more likely to win???

People draw the wrong conclusion from seeing that bonds bought recently seem to win lots of prizes. It’s simply that the amount people can hold has increased over time so there are lots of holders with recently purchased large holdings. Over time a higher proportion of winning bonds are held by these people,

Bravepants

WindfallWendy said:

Does anyone here bother to sell and re-purchase on the expectation that newer bonds are more likely to win???

No, because they are not more likely to win.

eskbanker

Bravepants said:

WindfallWendy said:

Does anyone here bother to sell and re-purchase on the expectation that newer bonds are more likely to win???

No, because they are not more likely to win.

That's the logical and rational (aka 'correct'!) answer but that doesn't stop some people suggesting, or even doing, that on a semi-regular basis on this thread - indeed if you look back to the very first post, from nearly twenty years ago, OP posited "i have a theory that newer bonds win more prizes"....

WindfallWendy

Kim_13 said:

WindfallWendy said:

Does anyone here bother to sell and re-purchase on the expectation that newer bonds are more likely to win???

Not for that reason but I have sold and repurchased before, either to combine a number of smaller blocks into a larger one or to fund savings accounts when better options were out there for cash savings that I couldn’t otherwise have funded. If I am doing so I buy on the 31st, preferably of January to lose the smallest time possible.

That's interesting. A bit like buying 20 scratch cards from the same roll rather than one each of 20 different scratch cards? 

But yes, I'm generally a bit dubious of selling. But I think the idea was sell a few thousand, every few months, in case it made a difference. My husband and I both have full holdings and I did wonder if we might test the theory 😄 One sells and buys occasionally, while the other holds fast. But I can't be bothered with that as I'm going to be shovelling it into ISAs in April.

MACKEM99

WindfallWendy said:

Kim_13 said:

WindfallWendy said:

Does anyone here bother to sell and re-purchase on the expectation that newer bonds are more likely to win???

Not for that reason but I have sold and repurchased before, either to combine a number of smaller blocks into a larger one or to fund savings accounts when better options were out there for cash savings that I couldn’t otherwise have funded. If I am doing so I buy on the 31st, preferably of January to lose the smallest time possible.

That's interesting. A bit like buying 20 scratch cards from the same roll rather than one each of 20 different scratch cards? 

But yes, I'm generally a bit dubious of selling. But I think the idea was sell a few thousand, every few months, in case it made a difference. My husband and I both have full holdings and I did wonder if we might test the theory 😄 One sells and buys occasionally, while the other holds fast. But I can't be bothered with that as I'm going to be shovelling it into ISAs in April.

Ref your last sentence ..you hope!

eskbanker

WindfallWendy said:
My husband and I both have full holdings and I did wonder if we might test the theory 😄 One sells and buys occasionally, while the other holds fast. But I can't be bothered with that as I'm going to be shovelling it into ISAs in April.

If you have a full holding then you obviously can't shovel it all into ISAs in April, given the annual ISA contribution limit!

RedImp_2

MACKEM99 said:

WindfallWendy said:

Kim_13 said:

WindfallWendy said:

Does anyone here bother to sell and re-purchase on the expectation that newer bonds are more likely to win???

Not for that reason but I have sold and repurchased before, either to combine a number of smaller blocks into a larger one or to fund savings accounts when better options were out there for cash savings that I couldn’t otherwise have funded. If I am doing so I buy on the 31st, preferably of January to lose the smallest time possible.

That's interesting. A bit like buying 20 scratch cards from the same roll rather than one each of 20 different scratch cards? 

But yes, I'm generally a bit dubious of selling. But I think the idea was sell a few thousand, every few months, in case it made a difference. My husband and I both have full holdings and I did wonder if we might test the theory 😄 One sells and buys occasionally, while the other holds fast. But I can't be bothered with that as I'm going to be shovelling it into ISAs in April.

Ref your last sentence ..you hope!

I don’t think it’s going to be abolished in the next month…..

DjangoUnchained

if you have for instance £5k in premium bonds and then buy another £5k a couple of months later, then cash in two thousand, do they cash out of the original £5k or out of the later ones or is it completely random?

eskbanker

DjangoUnchained said:

if you have for instance £5k in premium bonds and then buy another £5k a couple of months later, then cash in two thousand, do they cash out of the original £5k or out of the later ones or is it completely random?

If you ask us to cash in online or by phone, we decide which Premium Bonds and Premium Bond numbers to cash in. We normally cash in your oldest Premium Bonds first. You can only ask which Premium Bonds to cash in by post. Because we issue Premium Bonds in ranges of consecutive numbers, we’ll take the numbers from the end of the range if you’re only cashing in part of a Premium Bond. You can’t choose to cash in specific Premium Bond numbers.

https://www.nsandi.com/files/asset/pdf/premium-bonds-brochure.pdf