The stock markets are now surging

free4440273

cloud_dog wrote: »

Everything thats on the up can be considered a bubble, and because of psychology (we're only human) often fulfills the prophecy.

The thing thats difficult to know is where in the bubble cycle are we? Me, I think we're maybe halfway??

You are also taking things slightly out of context wrt Rio as they have risen on the fact that someone wants to buy £7billion pounds, ergo big demand = big rise.
As ageis says, its the knock on effect. Other markets / stocks are affected sometimes not because of the relevant market or individual stock fundamentals but because of liquidity, large investment houses may need capital etc so, they liquidate holding (immediate cash) irrespective of the fundamentals of the stock.

cloud_dog

As I recall: November 8th/9th: Rio surged +600 in a day:eek:. This is almost an exact mirror (on bid talks, same as last time). Last week it fell to approx £45 (from £55, which is where we rest now).

The thing thats difficult to know is where in the bubble cycle are we? Me, I think we're maybe halfway??

Agreed with the above: a cliche to say so, but timing IS everything. I still think that equities look 'weak' - deservedly so;).

cloud_dog

free4440273 wrote: »

As I recall: November 8th/9th: Rio surged +600 in a day:eek:. This is almost an exact mirror (on bid talks, same as last time). Last week it fell to approx £45 (from £55, which is where we rest now).

But that's what I mean, your specific comment (above and previous) relate to an event not a bubble. The context of a bubble implies lack of lasting substance (my interpretation), whilst the two 'surges' mentioned have substance, i.e. a bid or potential bid (and then the bid failing).

cloud_dog

cloud_dog

Wombie............ Just like to say Neptune GE has risen 2.2% today.............. wow, on the 'Surge' scale thats like a Super Surge

free4440273

I

cloud_dog wrote: »

But that's what I mean, your specific comment (above and previous) relate to an event not a bubble. The context of a bubble implies lack of lasting substance (my interpretation), whilst the two 'surges' mentioned have substance, i.e. a bid or potential bid (and then the bid failing).

cloud_dog

Indeed: but I think the upside in price (merger or no merger) is already 'priced in'. In addition to all this: It's obvious that hedge funds are 'influencing' the direction of mining shares - huge swings (+/- 600 in a day:eek:) are just unprecedented. For those who were short Rio/Xstrata/Bhp this week - they must be licking their financial wounds. And looking further ahead: I don't think the bond market believes in this rally...

hyposmurf

cloud_dog wrote: »

As ageis says, its the knock on effect. Other markets / stocks are affected sometimes not because of the relevant market or individual stock fundamentals but because of liquidity, large investment houses may need capital etc so, they liquidate holding (immediate cash) irrespective of the fundamentals of the stock.

cloud_dog

Yeh I had a feeling that was the case.When the dips appear hardly a sector seems to escape.Run through HL site and theres red all over the pages when a large dip occurs.I'd read a few articles mentioning that the Russian markets were fairly detached from the sub prime etc,but you just cant tell until the knock on effects appear.Even though I'm down at a little over 7% (not much I know) I'm still enjoying investing.Things will improve given time,Im just not going to make a quick buck, investing long term anyway.Can't stop analysing my funds & reading up on funds/markets for the last few months.Thanks cloud_dog and Ageis.

cloud_dog

free4440273 wrote: »

I
Indeed: but I think the upside in price (merger or no merger) is already 'priced in'. In addition to all this: It's obvious that hedge funds are 'influencing' the direction of mining shares - huge swings (+/- 600 in a day:eek:) are just unprecedented. For those who were short Rio/Xstrata/Bhp this week - they must be licking their financial wounds. And looking further ahead: I don't think the bond market believes in this rally...

Free, I sort of dont disagree with what your saying but.......... (here it comes) .......... Its still out of context.

Rio went up 13%, due to a £7billion investment (demand for shares). Rio's value is approx £50billion, £7billion is approx 14% so its relative. Saying '+/- 600' is 'out of context', i.e. Rio's SP is £50+ per share.

purch

Reports of the death of the 'supercycle' for industrial metals are way too premature.

The ongoing interest in Rio Tinto and other the top miners highlights the global scramble for these companies' resources, which will remain vital to economic development, especially in China and are scarce and getting scarcer.

My target for Xstrata is £43 - £45, and for Anglo American it changes daily :eek:

cloud_dog

Even RIO are playing silly bu**ers with the Chinese to try to get higher parices:

http://www.resourceinvestor.com/pebble.asp?relid=40056

free4440273

free4440273 wrote: »

^Indeed, there is plenty enough liquidity around: another .25 reduction will make no difference in making banks lend to each other. And it will make no difference in people's mortgage payments. Load up the shorts: there is worse to come on the stock markets :eek:

FTSE and European indices got pounded in the afternoon (extremely quick drop); Dollar bears also got slaughtered today - dollar index rebounded quite strongly....Another Fed rate cut tomorrow??:rotfl:{More seriously, BofE might very well cut by .50 on Thursday now, as opposed to merely .25}.

m_c_s

US major drop, and maybe back below 12000, so will see big losses in world indices next few days. Another buying opportunity......