Stock markets are too high and set to fall?

LHW99

https://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/discussion/comment/82004404#Comment_82004404

Hmm, not sure on the Research Gate publication. The introduction begins:

"This paper proposes that millennials' investing behavior is driven by generational biases", and later

"Behavioral theorists maintain that the investing behavior of this demographic cohort significantly differs from that of earlier generations"

In other words, this is a theoretical study, and appears to be based on a lot of other people's papers. Not a problem as such, but knowing how these type of reviews are compiled it is unclear whether the authors have taken account of the intricacies of the papers quoted. For example numbers studied (Results from 149 active investors), possible biases (A study of personality traits and online behaviour on Facebook), statistical universe (Evaluating structural equation models with unobservable variables and measurement error) etc.

It is an open access paper so probably not peer reviewed.https://www.sciencedirect.com/search?qs=Generational+theory+of+behavioral+biases+in+investment+behavior&pub=Borsa+Istanbul+Review&cid=305925

The Elsevier link on the front page does not appear to work.

[Deleted User]

https://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/discussion/comment/82004603#Comment_82004603

"I don't doubt that the value of inherited wealth will be the greatest in history in nominal terms".

Ah yes, inflation, let's just inflate away those funds. Thank goodness the US and UK borrowings aren't really that massive either, because of inflation, phew, where would we be without it!

masonic

https://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/discussion/comment/82005385#Comment_82005385

Devaluation of fiat currencies is an unavoidable reality that must be accounted for when making such comparisons. If you calculate the wealth using ounces of gold, two bedroom semi-detached houses, or as a percentage of global market capitalisation or or total wealth, the narrative evaporates.

Perhaps the real story should be one of an ever expanding money supply fueled by borrowing as you suggest. This has a great deal to do with the illusion.

Inflation is a strong motivator for us investing in the first place. Because we know £100 hidden under the mattress at the beginning of our working life will be worth much less when we retire.

[Deleted User]

Trivia….We're approaching three months since the Iran war began on 28 February, the value of my holdings today are 0.4% below what they were on that date. I'm not sure if that's good or not……and you?

tigerspill

https://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/discussion/comment/82008196#Comment_82008196

I am more than 3% up since that date.

Obviously there was a significant drop in the month after that date, but I have seen this more than recover.

masonic

https://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/discussion/comment/82008196#Comment_82008196

Apparently as of market close yesterday I was 2.7% up (Edit: as of close today I'm 3.7% up). Perversely, it is my index linked gilt holdings that have let me down - they've fallen due to the political uncertainty in the UK at the moment, but price fluctuations in those are immaterial.

Top holdings are: Broad long dated commodities ETF (+10%), followed closely by S&P500 ETF (+9%), and EM ETF (+6%).

Negative holdings are: TG54 ILG (-4%ish) and Asia Pacific ETF (-3%)

aroominyork

With all due respect, guys… all this "I am up xx%"… "I am down xx%" is pretty meaningless. Someone who is 100% equities will have a very different (better) result than someone who is 40% equities. It risks dragging us into LL-USS territory, a place we know should be avoided. I expect Monevator has thought about showing how different assets classes have fared since it all kicked off, but thought better of it.

masonic

https://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/discussion/comment/82008903#Comment_82008903

It was introduced as "Trivia", so I'm taking it in the spirit intended. If nothing else, it shows how useless we all are at guessing what is going to happen. Because I for one would have guessed very differently! The difference here is I don't think any of us are going to make any changes whatsoever based on what has happened over this short time.

aroominyork

I didn't see the Trivia. Maybe there should be two fora (is that the plural?): one for "this might usefully inform your investing" and one for "for the love of God ignore this", because which of us hasn't made investments based on stuff we should have ignored?

tigerspill

https://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/discussion/comment/82008903#Comment_82008903

I just took it as a bit of fun in the conversation.