Stock markets are too high and set to fall?

[Deleted User]

https://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/discussion/comment/82008932#Comment_82008932

Indeed, it was passing idle curisosity and nothing more.But ARIY is correct also,it is pretty meaningless!

I am only 73% invested and even then during this period I was only 44% in equities with a low US holding at 26%. I am that way because I was busy trying to understand the configuration I want for my new financial year. My bond holdings took a hit during this period but the increased yield should pay back later. The FTSE AS, Ranmore and Arrtemis UK also fell whilst Japan and GEMS continued to outperform…..horses for courses as they say.

aroominyork

Fun, huh, that "noun and adjective defined as light-hearted pleasure, enjoyment, or amusement". Anyway, 44% equities and up 1.2%. Punished for no commodities and, yet again, for underweight US. I expect Man Dynamic Income saved me, once again, from worse performance.

[Deleted User]

https://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/discussion/comment/82009127#Comment_82009127

I've been looking into the best way to hold commodities but I have yet to see a managed fund that has an acceptable level of volatility and risk. The PIMCO GIS Professional Commodities fund looks useful but I can't understand what's under the hood, other than TIPS……if you ir anyone else has any pointers, I'll be interested to read them.

aroominyork

Why do you want a managed commodities fund? You want someone to guess whether copper or pork bellies will protect you during the next whatever happens? Monevator likes UC15 and if I invested in commodities (of course I wish I had over recent years…) that would be good enough for me. masonic might chip in about his fund which I think has performed similarly.

[Deleted User]

https://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/discussion/comment/82009152#Comment_82009152

I prefer managed funds accross the board, over the alternatives, I think the human element can give them an edge at times.

InvesterJones

A little over 4% up since 28th feb. ~80% equities, mostly all-world index trackers, some satellite (read=fun) funds have done extremely well like renewal energy but that is absolutely not a recommendation to copy - I didn't chose it solely for performance reasons.

aroominyork

https://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/discussion/comment/82009207#Comment_82009207

Those two little words - at times - have much heavy lifting to do.

For people wondering how an equity index fund has done since 28 Feb:

And using VLS to show how equity/bond portfolios have done:

(Hey - look at me having fun!)

masonic

https://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/discussion/comment/82009135#Comment_82009135

Managed commodities funds tend to invest in companies rather than commodities (gold miners, oil explorers, etc). That is not the type of exposure I want. Though the PIMCO fund seems to be getting most of its exposure "directly" via swaps, but it holds 25% cash and 20% bonds, so only 55% commodities. And it appears to be US domiciled, meaning not available in the UK as it doesn't meet regulatory requirements. It will probably be no issue for you to hold where you are.

For a slightly lower charge I can get a full fat variant, which means I will need less of it. I don't think any fund manager is talented enough to play the backwardation/contango game for profit, nor market time their exposure by diving in and out like the PIMCO fund presumably does. According to one source ( https://markets.businessinsider.com/funds/pimco-commodities-plus-cit-us999983pi49 ) performance since inception 32% in USD terms ~ 76% in GBP terms, inception 2010. Compare that to my ETF of choice, CMFP, up 76% over the same period. There was a lost decade for commodities in that period, where they slumped and stayed down, then an explosion during Covid and the Iran war, so plenty of opportunity for the active fund to outperform, yet it didn't.

I would say that more modern ETFs like UC15 are potentially the better vehicle, but I find availability patchy, so have stuck to one I know I can move from platform to platform. It doesn't have the history to compare way back to 2010, but not really much between it and CMFP over the period we can compare:

[Deleted User]

https://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/discussion/comment/82009323#Comment_82009323

I'm tempted to post a graph of my Polar Capital Japan managed fund that is up 8.9% over 3 months or my Artemis Smartgarp GEMS managed fund that is up 9.0% over the same period. But doing so turns the discussion into a pointless competition that serves no purpose. Managed and index funds both have their places and can comfortably co-exist in the same portfolio, I hold sveral of both. But there are some areas where I fell more comfortable with one or the other, it's a personal preference as much as anything else.

[Deleted User]

https://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/discussion/comment/82009319#Comment_82009319

As others have mentioned, there has been a price to pay for being underweight US during the past three months, the much anticipated and discussed risks of the Tech Sector didn't materialise. I started to correct that problem but not until the two month mark and in the meantime, the bond market fell. Fortunately for me, I was only half invested throughout this period and my Japan And Asian stocks, along with GEMS, took up much of the slack. The benefits of diversification are demonstrated yet again, as is the reminder not to underweight the US market too much (I'm now back to 30%), no matter how crazy things seem.